论《诗经·国风》的民歌性--民谣之体,教化之用

从正反两方面来论证《诗经.国风》的民歌性,首先根据民歌的涵义,从乐调、艺术形式和内容三个角度说明“国风”符合民歌的特点;然后从反面的“非民歌说”的观点出发,解释国风虽用于周政权“化南”的政治目的,但其体仍为民谣。     

Predicting infectious disease outbreak risk via migratory waterfowl vectors

The spread of an emerging infectious disease is a major public health threat. Given the uncertainties associated with vector-borne diseases, in terms of vector dynamics and disease transmission, it is critical to develop statistical models that address how and when such an infectious disease could spread throughout a region such as the USA. This paper considers a spatio-temporal statistical model for how an infectious disease could be carried into the USA by migratory waterfowl vectors during their seasonal migration and, ultimately, the risk of transmission of such a disease to domestic fowl. Modeling spatio-temporal data of this type is inherently difficult given the uncertainty associated with observations, complexity of the dynamics, high dimensionality of the underlying process, and the presence of excessive zeros. In particular, the spatio-temporal dynamics of the waterfowl migration are developed by way of a two-tiered functional temporal and spatial dimension reduction procedure that captures spatial and seasonal trends, as well as regional dynamics. Furthermore, the model relates the migration to a population of poultry farms that are known to be susceptible to such diseases, and is one of the possible avenues toward transmission to domestic poultry and humans. The result is a predictive distribution of those counties containing poultry farms that are at the greatest risk of having the infectious disease infiltrate their flocks assuming that the migratory population was infected. The model naturally fits into the hierarchical Bayesian framework.     

百越民族的水稻、浮稻与“鸟田”传说新解

《越绝书》、《吴越春秋》等古籍中记载的“鸟田” ,有的学者诠释为“以鸟助耕” ,这纯属误解。本文通过对百越民族谷物起源神话的分析 ,得出”鸟田”、“雒田”研究的新结论 :它们来源于古代百越民族的鸟、狗取稻种神话 ,原意是指水稻、浮稻和水田。     

危机事件中的网络视频传播与话语分析

随着网络视频的兴起，网络传播进入视频时代：对央视网和优酷网“甲型H1N1流感”议题的网络视频进行对比研究发现，在视频节目来源、话语平台的影响力和话语影响力以及话语呈现和对话机制方面，网络视频官方话语与民间话语的呈现都存在显著差异和一定规律。更为重要的是，网络视频传播在危机事件中的作用日益显著。     

朝鲜古代鸟崇拜与卵生神话之起源探究

卵生神话的产生与太阳崇拜思想、鸟崇拜思想、稻作文化有关,但是,笔者认为它更与鸟崇拜思想有着直接的联系。朝鲜古代鸟崇拜思想与卵生神话是独自发生、发展的,并非"南方流入"。朝鲜古代卵生神话是原始狩猎历史时期的文化产物,可分为南北方卵生神话。稻作文化的传入推动了朝鲜卵生神话的演化,丰富了朝鲜神话元素和象征体系,并促使南北方神话在原型结构上进一步产生差异。     

大流感、战争与创伤记忆——《灰色马，灰色的骑手》中的创伤叙事

文学界对凯瑟琳·安·波特的研究多停留在其写作风格上,实际上,如果结合小说的第一次世界大战和1918年大流感爆发的背景来看,她的短篇小说《灰色马,灰色的骑手》是一部创伤小说。其中的创伤叙事不仅有助于个人的创伤修复,更揭露了被帝国战争话语掩盖的集体创伤,是对历史叙事的一次积极补充和修改。     

禽流感疫情管理中的问题与挑战：一项基于家禽风险管理的实证研究*

以往的疫情报告表明,小规模养殖方式的存在是导致疫情爆发的主要根源。如何对小规模养殖方式实施监督是重建整个疫情规训设置的重中之重。然而,调查表明,现有疫情规训机制是基于现代养殖场的风险管理模式建立的,不论“知识-权力”设置,还是管理技术都难以对小规模养殖方式和散养方式实施有效监管。而且,在整个乡村,盛行着工业化养殖文化（现代养殖文化）和有机养殖文化（传统养殖文化）的话语权之争。因此,为了应对碎片化风险管理现状,不仅需要进一步完善现有的“知识-权力”设置,而且需要重新定义工业化养殖文化,以克服现有“混杂性”小规模养殖方式的诟病,真正建立有效的疫情管理机制。     

论《水浒传》中的詈骂词“鸟”

《水浒传》中“鸟”用作詈骂词的例子共有一百七十八个。透过对这些例子的分析，我们可以发现“鸟”作詈骂词使用的情况不仅《水浒传》中存在，其它同时代著作中存在，而且在现代汉语口语中也普遍存在。     

《杜宾的生活》中的自然意象

《杜宾的生活》是美国犹太作家伯纳德·马拉默德在题材和创作方面所做的一次大胆尝试。马拉默德充分而巧妙地运用自然意象,在自然意象与人物、环境、人物的思想情感之间建立了相互衬托和映射的关系,这一创作手法得益于著名作家劳伦斯。本文通过对花、鸟两种自然意象的分析,以展示《杜宾的生活》的艺术魅力。     

Understanding the Risk of an Avian Flu Pandemic: Rational Waiting or Precautionary Failure?

The precautionary principle (PP) has been proposed as the proper guide for the decision-making criteria to be adopted in the face of the new catastrophic risks that have arisen in the last decades. This article puts forward a workable definition of the PP based on the so-called alpha-maximin expected utility approach, applying it to the possible outbreak of the avian flu disease among humans. Moreover, it shows how the shortage and/or lack of effective drugs against the infection of the virus A(H5N1) among humans can be considered a precautionary failure.