Learning from a lot: Empirical Bayes for high‐dimensional model‐based prediction

Empirical Bayes is a versatile approach to “learn from a lot” in two ways: first, from a large number of variables and, second, from a potentially large amount of prior information, for example, stored in public repositories. We review applications of a variety of empirical Bayes methods to several well‐known model‐based prediction methods, including penalized regression, linear discriminant analysis, and Bayesian models with sparse or dense priors. We discuss “formal” empirical Bayes methods that maximize the marginal likelihood but also more informal approaches based on other data summaries. We contrast empirical Bayes to cross‐validation and full Bayes and discuss hybrid approaches. To study the relation between the quality of an empirical Bayes estimator and p, the number of variables, we consider a simple empirical Bayes estimator in a linear model setting. We argue that empirical Bayes is particularly useful when the prior contains multiple parameters, which model a priori information on variables termed “co‐data”. In particular, we present two novel examples that allow for co‐data: first, a Bayesian spike‐and‐slab setting that facilitates inclusion of multiple co‐data sources and types and, second, a hybrid empirical Bayes–full Bayes ridge regression approach for estimation of the posterior predictive interval.     

Inference and optimal design of multiple constant-stress testing for generalized half-normal distribution under type-II progressive censoring

The generalized half-normal (GHN) distribution and progressive type-II censoring are considered in this article for studying some statistical inferences of constant-stress accelerated life testing. The EM algorithm is considered to calculate the maximum likelihood estimates. Fisher information matrix is formed depending on the missing information law and it is utilized for structuring the asymptomatic confidence intervals. Further, interval estimation is discussed through bootstrap intervals. The Tierney and Kadane method, importance sampling procedure and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm are utilized to compute Bayesian estimates. Furthermore, predictive estimates for censored data and the related prediction intervals are obtained. We consider three optimality criteria to find out the optimal stress level. A real data set is used to illustrate the importance of GHN distribution as an alternative lifetime model for well-known distributions. Finally, a simulation study is provided with discussion.     

Ethnicity, migration and health: A population-based study of 338 refugees from Latin America, 396 nonrefugee immigrants from Finland and 161 from southern Europe and 996 age-, sex- and education-matched controls from Sweden

This article shows the influence of being a refugee from Latin America or a nonrefugee immigrant from southern Europe or Finland on self-reported illness, controlling for social factors and lifestyle. The study population consisted of 338 Latin American refugees, a random sample of 396 Finnish and 161 southern European immigrants and 996 age-, sex- and education-matched Swedish controls. The data were analysed unmatched with logistic regression (multivariate analysis) in main effect models. The strongest independent risk indicator for long-term illness was being a Latin American refugee (estimated odds ratio (OR)=2.96, 95% confidence interval (CI)=2.19–3.82). There was a significant association between being a Latin American refugee and period prevalence, ill health and unsatisfied need for care. Being a southern European or Finnish immigrant was a risk indicator of ill health but was not associated with the other dependent factors. Not feeling secure in daily life was a strong risk indicator for long-term illness and ill health (estimated OR=1.89, 95% CI=1.26–2.76 and OR=3.04, 95% CI= 1.97–4.48) respectively). Being a Latin American refugee was equal in importance to traditional risk factors such as overweight and not taking regular exercise for long-term illness and ill health.     

论我国农村基层民主建设的现实基础

基层民主建设是有中国特色的民主政治内容之一。近年来,我国农村的基层民主建设引起世人关注。本文从我国农村的经济因素、社会因素和文化因素三个方面探讨了在经济、文化相对落后的农村推进民主进程的可能性与可行性。     

几类全微分方程问题的求解定理

利用全微分方程的条件，给出一类微分方程的积分因子及通解公式，得出一类全微分方程中未知函数所满足的二阶线性微分方程，获得未知函数及全微分方程的通解。     

开发我国人力资源创新能力的对策研究

创新是推动社会发展的动力 ,特别是在知识经济时代 ,一个国家竞争能力的强弱主要依赖于创新 ,而创新源于具有创新能力的人才。笔者从分析影响人力资源创新能力的心理因素和社会环境因素入手 ,针对这些影响因素提出了开发我国人力资源创新能力的对策。     

Computing maximum likelihood estimates from type II doubly censored exponential data

It is well-known that, under Type II double censoring, the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the location and scale parameters, θ and δ, of a twoparameter exponential distribution are linear functions of the order statistics. In contrast, when θ is known, theML estimator of δ does not admit a closed form expression. It is shown, however, that theML estimator of the scale parameter exists and is unique. Moreover, it has good large-sample properties. In addition, sharp lower and upper bounds for this estimator are provided, which can serve as starting points for iterative interpolation methods such as regula falsi. Explicit expressions for the expected Fisher information and Cramér-Rao lower bound are also derived. In the Bayesian context, assuming an inverted gamma prior on δ, the uniqueness, boundedness and asymptotics of the highest posterior density estimator of δ can be deduced in a similar way. Finally, an illustrative example is included.     

顺应历史发展潮流,重塑多元价值理论--论深化改革与促进发展的经济学价值论基础

具有历史局限性的劳动价值论受到实践挑战并被其他理论超越是不可避免的.社会经济发展的条件、动力和主体多元化了,与其相适应的经济价值论也必然要多元化.商品价值的本质是人的需求同商品之间的关系.商品价值的决定是一个多层次多元的综合体系,它由"天人合一"论、供求均衡论、生产要素论和需求要素论所构成,劳动价值论只是其中的"特例".生产要素贡献论与合法产权收益论是市场经济条件下必然的收益分配原则,它对"一家独享"和"吃大锅饭"的不平等都是排斥的.劳动价值论所认定的剥削只是一种极端情形,而依据多元价值论则能对剥削作出更具普遍性的说明.资本的性质及作用取决于它的来源和使用方式.中国现阶段的大多数民营企业家为国为民做出了重大贡献,不应一概斥之为剥削阶级."全心全意依靠工人阶级"的实质是指始终要依靠先进生产力的代表,而不是固定不变的哪部分人群,它同"科学技术是第一生产力"应当是统一的.随着生产发展和社会进步,中产阶级壮大不可避免,但这不是坏事,毕竟我们革命和建设不是要制造更多无产者.中产阶级在社会阶级或阶层构成中占相当大的一个多数是实现社会稳定和发展的重要条件.     

受内压圆柱筒体开孔-接管区应力集中的有限元分析

利用 ANSYS有限元分析软件通过三个算例对圆柱形筒体小开孔直接管区、大开孔直接管区、大开孔斜接管区的应力分布状况进行了研究 .从中了解到了最大第一主应力的变化规律 ,得出在弹性范围内的应力集中系数 ,并且得到ASME规范中的算式较好的验证     

黑龙江（汉族）民歌衍变过程探析——对黑龙江、河北（汉族）民歌的比较

黑龙江汉族民歌的衍变历经了数百年的岁月沧桑，它与民族迁徙、人口变迁以及文化传统等存在着极为密切的联系。通过对黑龙江民歌与河北、山东、河南、山西民歌进行比较，表明黑龙江民歌与河北民歌之间存在着较近的亲缘关系。因此，文章试图在对较有代表性的几首黑龙江与河北民歌比较研究的基础上进一步探究黑龙江民歌衍变的影响因素。