基于利率期限结构的我国货币政策态势分析

当前中国经济处于"高增长、高通胀、高流动性"的三高状态,2011年上半年,伴随着一连串的货币和财政紧缩,通胀预期得到一定控制,经济开始回归常态发展,通过三次B样条估计的利率期限结构反映出加息、上调准备金率等货币政策已经使得融资成本显著上升,货币紧缩效果明显,采取进一步紧缩政策的迫切性大大降低。预计2011年下半年的通胀水平将明显走低,但是货币政策仍将继续保持稳健偏紧,以巩固政策效果,同时还将实施积极的财政政策,以促进经济平稳发展。

Analysis of the Situation of Chinese Monetary Policy Based on the Estimation of the Term Structure of Interest Rate

At present,Chinese economy is in the three-high state,a state of high growth,high inflation and high liquidity.In the first half of 2011,along with a series of monetary and fiscal restraints,inflaction is expected to be controlled to some degree,and the economy has begun to return to regular development.The interest rate term structure estimated by the cubic B-spline method reflects that the monetary policies such as raising the interest rate,and up regulating of the reserve rate have made the financing cos...