双顺差对货币政策有效性影响的实证分析

运用计量分析方法，对我国1994—2009年外汇储备与货币供应量M2、外汇占款及基础货币的相关关系进行实证研究，结果表明，双顺差引致外汇储备的大量增长是导致M2增长的原因，外汇占款已经成为央行供应基础货币的重要渠道之一，而国际收支双顺差最终会造成货币政策的有效性降低。

China's Money Policy Validity Affected by Double Surplus

Double surplus cause substantial increase in foreign exchange reserves, while excessive growth of the reserves forces the central bank to increase the amount of base money supply, as the result, the excessive money supply affects the effectiveness of monetary policy. This paper, by using quantitative analysis, makes an empirical research on the eorrelativity between foreign reserves and M2 as well as money occupied by Foreign Currencies and the amount of money supply in the period of 1994 -2009. The result shows that the substantial increase of foreign reserves resulted from Double Surplus is the reason for the increase of M2, Money occupied by Foreign Currencies has already been an important way to offer the amount of money supply, and the Double Surplus may finally lead to reduction of the Money Policy validity.