地方政府行为与房地产发展——基于上海市的实证研究

房地产的发展对地方经济增长和税收的增加具有重大贡献，但过高的房价又会抑制普通公众的房屋消费，造成公众福利的降低，妨碍政府公共服务职能的实现。因此政府面临发展经济和改善民生的两难选择，地方政府出于不同的考虑会有不同的选择。本研究以上海的数据为研究样本，运用单位根检验、VAR等计量经济方法对地方政府的房地产政策选择进行研究，分析地方政府房地产政策行为背后的原因。结果表明：房地产对地方经济影响越大，政府对其支持力度越大，而当房地产业过度发展造成社会福利损失时，地方政府也会采取一定的调控措施。

Behavior of Local Government and Real Estate Development-- An empirical study of Shanghai

The real estate development of local economic growth and tax increases, but significant contribution of high prices may suppress the general public housing consumption, harming public welfare and hindering the government＇s public service function realization. Therefore, the government faces dilema of the economic development and improvement of the people＇s life, and the local government in different thinking will have different choices. The unit root test using VAR model, the method of such econometric Shanghai real estate development thoughts are studied, and the reasons behind the government behavior are analyzed. The results show that： Greater the impact of real estate on the local economy, greater the need of the government＇s support. When the real estate over-development does harm to social welfare, the local government should take certain control m6asures.