基于多阶段博弈模型的土地财政形成机理研究

土地财政的形成既与我国的财政体制和税收结构有关，也与中央政府的目标变化以及地方政府的目标构成密切相关。本文使用博弈论方法分析各个利益主体的收益函数与战略选择，揭示地方政府土地财政形成的内在机理与演化过程。研究表明：当中央政府倾向于社会公平而选择集权时容易形成土地财政；当中央政府选择分权时使得地方政府获得较强的激励去推动地方经济发展，则不会形成土地财政；同时，地方政府与开发商之间的博弈取决于地方政府官员的选择。本文的建议是：（1）改善分税制的制度设计；（2）加大地方政府违规征地处罚力度；（3）改革传统干部GDP考核制度。

Study on Land Finance Formation Mechanism Based on Multistage Game Model

The formation of land finance is both related to the financial system and tax structure of China and is closely related to both the objective change of central government and the goal composition of local governments. This paper uses Game Theory Methodology to analyze the earnings function of each main body of the interests and its strategic choice and reveals the intrinsic mechanism and evolution progress of the finance formation of local governments. Research results show that the land finance is easily formed when central government prefers social fairness to choose centralized power, that land finance can not be formed when central government chooses decentralized power to make local governments get stronger incentive to promote local economic development, and meanwhile, the game between local governments and developing merchants depends on the choice of the officials of the local governments. This paper suggests (1) improve the institutional design of tax distribution system, (2)enlarge the penalty on the local governments for illegal expropriation of land, (3)reform the traditional cadre evaluation by GDP.