贸易开放、城镇化与我国城乡收入差距

基于1982—2012年我国时间序列数据,利用协整检验和VAR系统的格兰杰因果检验等方法对我国贸易开放、城镇化与城乡收入差距之间的关系进行实证研究。研究发现三者之间存在长期均衡关系,城乡收入差距与贸易开放之间是“U型”关系,与城镇化之间是“倒U型”关系。目前我国正处于两个“U型”曲线的右侧,政府一方面应慎行贸易开放政策,提升对外开放层次和水平,继续推进新型城镇化进程,保障城镇化质量,另一方面要统筹城乡共同发展,缩小城乡收入差距。

Trade opening,urbanization and urban-rural income gap in China

Based on time series data from 1982 to 2012, by using the method of co-integration test and Granger Causality Test of VAR system, the relationship among the trade opening, the urbanization and the urban-rural income gap in China are studied empirically. The study found that the three indicators have the relationship of long-term equilibrium, the relationship between trade opening and urban-rural income gap is U type, while that between trade opening and urban-rural income gap is the inverted U type. At present, China is on the right side of the two ＂ U＂ curves, which means that on one hand, the policy of trade opening should be implemented carefully, the level of the trade opening is promoted, the process to promote the new urbanization is continued, the quality of urbanization is guaranteed; on the other band, the common development in urban and rural areas is coordinated, and urban-rural income gap is narrowed.