农村剩余劳动力的新估计及其含义

利用具有全国代表性的抽样调查资料，测算农村劳动力资源的配置状况，并根据计量经济模型，预测样本中每一个劳动力的迁移概率。由此推算出在现有的劳动力市场状况和制度环境下，农业中可供转移的劳动力规模仅有几千万，是十分有限的，这一结果和中国仍然存在上亿的、大量的农村剩余劳动力的观点有很大差异。目前在农业部门就业的劳动力主要是受教育水平较低的中老年劳动力，要使他们真正为经济的持续发展发挥作用，需要相应的政策支持，即重视对中老年劳动力的培训，降低劳动力流动的成本，从而提高其非农工作的参与程度。

New estimate of surplus rural labor force and its implications

The allocation of rural labor resource has been measured with sample survey representative of the national population, and migration probability of each sample labor predicted according to econometrics model. Results indicate only tens of millions of rural labor ready for transfer, which is quite different from the viewpoint that China has a great number of rural surplus labor. The present labor employed in agriculture departments consists mainly of the middle and old aged with low level of education. To give full play to their role in the sustainable development of economy, corresponding policy support is required to strengthen labor training, reduce labor flow cost and thereby improve their engagement in non-farming work.