技术指标能够预测商品期货价格吗? 来自中国的证据

基于移动价格平均、动量和移动交易量平均三类技术指标,研究了其对中国大宗商品期货价格的预测效果,并以基于宏观变量的预测为基准比较分析了其预测能力.主要结论如下,第一,技术指标能够在样本内和样本外检验中有效预测我国大宗商品期货价格,其预测效果显著超过已有文献中广泛使用的宏观经济指标.第二,对于不同的模型设定和数据频率,技术指标预测效果表现稳健.第三,从资产配置角度出发,基于技术指标的预测具有显著经济意义,能够显著提高资产配置效率,获得超额收益.相关结果能够为大宗商品投资及风险管理提供经验和策略支持.     

Measuring and Achieving Equity in Multiperiod Emergency Material Allocation

Emergency material allocation is an important part of postdisaster emergency logistics that is significant for improving rescue effectiveness and reducing disaster losses. However, the traditional single‐period allocation model often causes local surpluses or shortages and high cost, and prevents the system from achieving an equitable or optimal multiperiod allocation. To achieve equitable allocation of emergency materials in the case of serious shortages relative to the demand by victims, this article introduces a multiperiod model for allocation of emergency materials to multiple affected locations (using an exponential utility function to reflect the disutility loss due to material shortfalls), and illustrates the relationship between equity of allocations and the cost of emergency response. Finally, numerical examples are presented to demonstrate both the feasibility and the usefulness of the proposed model for achieving multiperiod equitable allocation of emergency material among multiple disaster locations. The results indicate that the introduction of a nonlinear utility function to reflect the disutility of large shortfalls can make the material allocation fairer, and minimize large losses due to shortfalls. We found that achieving equity has a significant but not unreasonable impact on emergency costs. We also illustrate that using differing utility functions for different types of materials adds an important dimension of flexibility.     

区域经济运行中资源地域空间配置研究 --一个数理经济学的理论分析框架

在一定假设条件下,利用数理经济学方法对区域经济运行中的纯粹交换经济系统、纯粹生产经济系统、生产--交换经济系统中的资源地域空间配置优化进行一般均衡及其均衡扩展比较研究,发现并证明无论何种类型的区域经济体系或多区域经济体系,资源地域空间配置优化的宏观经济效益与微观经济效益并不总是一致的,存在着差异与负相关的可能性.     

价值新概念与资源配置和利用

经济运行从开始到达稳定状态一般经过七个阶段。传统劳动价值论认为 ,商品价值由物质生产部门的劳动者在社会生产的第二阶段实际耗费的劳动者支出量加上生产资料转移的价值决定。新价值论认为 ,现代产品价值由产品基本价值、生产资料价值和自然资源价值三部分构成 ,产品基本价值由社会各部门应该耗费的社会必要劳动能力量在生产的前提阶段内在地决定并在第七阶段成为现实。由此决定了传统的价值概念不能包含资源配置和利用。新价值概念本身就蕴涵着资源配置和利用。     

多校区图书馆的典藏工作

高校合并后,许多院校的图书馆都出现了多校区、多分馆的管理局面。笔者从新图书典藏、调拨、剔除几个方面简要论述了如何搞好多校区图书馆的典藏工作。     

学术期刊属性研究

在编辑传播学界关于学术期刊属性的研究上,普遍存在着一个突出的问题,这就是论者们几乎不假思索地认为“学术期刊是商品”。我们认为,这是一个很大的误区,这种认识在理论上是错误的,在实践上是有害的。首先,“学术期刊商品论”是自相矛盾的;其次,“学术期刊商品论”与马克思主义经济学是相悖的;再次,“学术期刊商品论”与普遍存在的事实是恰恰相反的。学术期刊和学术事业是一项创新的事业,它关系一个国家的生存安危,对此,江泽民同志曾经反复强调,创新是一个民族进步的灵魂,是国家兴旺发达的不竭动力之源。因此,对待学术和学术期刊事业应当像对待军队、警察机构一样,不能也不可能使其商品化,学术期刊应该走自己的健康发展之路。     

企业资本预算管理体系的构建

资本预算管理体系是规划企业资本活动的一种原则和方法步骤的系统。它的优势是可以协助企业实现股东财富最大化目标,它的缺陷是可能导致企业决策失误及资源配置不当等,甚至威胁企业的存亡。从分析国内外关于资本预算管理体系研究的缺陷入手,针对相关资本预算管理体系研究的不足,构建了新的资本预算管理体系。在这套新的体系中,加入了资本预算的基本前提、项目评估与决策系统、资本预算考评激励机制和资本预算修正机制,从理论层次解释了企业战略与资本预算之间的关系,以期对提高我国企业资本预算管理水平有借鉴意义。     

Household strategies in the face of resource scarcity in coastal Ghana: are they associated with development priorities?

In many developing regions, women and young girls spend several hours daily in the collection of natural resources. Still the link between these household resource strategies and stakeholder perceptions of development priorities remains unexplored. This project examines this association with survey data representative of the adult population from Ghana’s Coastal Region. Although natural resource scarcity and the sustainability of resource use represent key development challenges, there are others (e.g., energy, sanitation, employment, and educational opportunities). As such, even in the face of natural resource scarcity, individuals may place greater importance on other dimensions of development, especially if household resource strategies are perceived as relatively efficient. The analytical focus here is on water and the results suggest that gender roles shape household water collection strategies, while also shaping these strategies’ perceived opportunity costs. Specifically, Ghanian adults more often see drinking water provision as their primary development need when water sources are distant and/or when male household members collect water (particularly male heads). In the end, I argue that social science inquiry benefits by contextualizing social dynamics within environmental context, particularly within cultural settings in which human subsistence is intimately tied to the state of the natural environment.     

Improving the contributions of technology assessment to the health care system of the U.S.A.

Summary Based on 14 case studies of highly effective therapies and the reasons they succeeded less frequently than they could, we propose a variety of steps to improve the health care system of the U.S.A. Whatever proposal emerges from current national debates until innovations are shown to be safe and effective, they should not be supported; when slightly better technologies are much more expensive than other good ones we need to consider appropriate choices carefully; simplified billing and bookkeping would reduce our costs; when a technology is rapidly introduced cautionnary measures may be needed; tracking immunization and repairing their omissions requires a new system; educational programs such as seen effective in hypertension should be applied in other areas such as vaccination; in organ transplantation the nation should consider “presumed consent”; our payment system sometimes creates perverse incentives and therefore needs review; and the preferences of the public in allocation of health resources need to be discovered once the public is informed about the issues. Research supported by Andrew W. Mellon Foundation.     

对社会主义市场经济内涵的理论思考

自我国确立社会主义市场经济体制改革目标以来,市场经济得到迅速发展,市场活动有序进行,但也存在不少问题。因此,全面准确地把握社会主义市场经济的内涵,对于我们完善社会主义市场经济体制,建立规范的市场经济秩序、实现经济的平稳运行有着重要的意义。