货币政策和传导机制研究进展及启示——当代西方经济学视角

自20世纪80年代以来,对货币政策有效性的争论催生了经济学家对货币政策传导机制的研究。已有的研究主要包括了利率、汇率、资产价格和信贷四种传导渠道。如果传导机制变量对货币政策做出准确反应,那么央行可以把传导机制变量作为货币政策选择的一个中间目标。虽然理论模型无法直接证明货币政策传导机制对货币政策绩效有影响,但是若干经济危机案例的实证研究表明,在任何一个货币政策失效的案例中,我们都能发现传导机制变量没有对货币政策做出有效反应。而在这些案例中,政府对传导机制变量的直接干预对恢复货币政策有效性起到了关键作用。如何增强货币政策在防范危机方面的有效性,是货币政策传导机制未来研究的一个重要方向。

A Review on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism and its Implications:From the Perspective of Contemporary Western Economics

The debate on the effectiveness of monetary policy has given rise to the research on the monetary transmission mechanism since 1980’s.The related research includes four types of transmission mechanism: interest-rate mechanism,exchange-rate mechanism,asset-price mechanism and credit mechanism,while credit transmission mechanism has made substantial progress in the theoretical and empirical studies.If monetary transmission mechanism variables respond accurately to the monetary policy,the central bank could make monetary transmission mechanism variables as the intermediate targets of its monetary policy.Although theoretical models can’t provide the direct proof that monetary transmission mechanism may affect the performance of the monetary policy,empirical studies on several economic crises have shown that monetary transmission mechanism variables didn’t respond effectively to the monetary policy in any case of these economic crises.Moreover,direct intervention by government against the monetary transmission mechanism variables played a key role in the rehabilitation of the effectiveness of monetary policy in these cases.How to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in preventing financial crisis is an important aspect of future studies on monetary transmission mechanism.