共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 687 毫秒
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本文主要结合投资的一般规律,采用量化分析方法对风险投资及敏感性进行分析估测。投资的主要环节有投资的决策、项目的实施、投资中止、退出等,企业要利用投资风险量化分析进行实际的分析,并据以判断投资项目的风险大小并做出决策。 相似文献
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基于序列投资的汽车项目投资决策模型 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
汽车项目投资具有投资大和较高的不确定性特点,一般分阶段进行,可以视为一个序列投资.多个投资阶段之间存在着相互影响,前一阶段的投资应考虑到后续各阶段投资的可能性.以汽车项目投资为背景,运用二叉树决策方法建立了多阶段的序列投资评价模型,并应用实物期权理论对序列投资中各阶段可能创造的价值进行了分析.通过构建基于序列投资评价的汽车项目投资决策模型,可以对汽车企业投资进行评价,有助于做出有效的决策. 相似文献
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决策柔性的一般定义、模型与价值 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
许多学者和决策实践者认为,决策柔性应当具有价值.但这一直觉推测并未在一般的决策理论框架下得到的证实.文章的目的就是要从理论上证明这一推测.通过回顾关于柔性的文献,归纳出柔性的本质属性(范围和速度).进而在决策理论的一般框架下,给出了决策柔性的数学定义,建立了柔性决策模型,并指出了该模型与经典柔性决策模型之间的关系.最后,应用该模型,证明了"决策选项的价值随着决策(范围和(或)反应)柔性水平的提高而增加"这一基本结论. 相似文献
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分布式供应链节点企业物流能力柔性价值研究 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3
节点企业物流能力柔性是影响分布式供应链能否快速响应客户的关键因素之一.首先对物流能力的研究进行回顾,分析分布式供应链中节点企业物流能力、特点和运作流程.界定了节点企业物流能力柔性及其价值,通过对物流能力投资过程的分析,在相关合理假设的基础上,分析物流能力投资环节中如何计算不确定性的投资收益,并最终建立基于多段随机规划和实物期权的物流能力柔性价值决策模型.模型中存在的需求的不确定性和决策点的可选择性使求解复杂,因而采用Latin超立方分层采样技术和蒙特卡洛模拟技术对模型进行求解,模型解决了传统财务方法忽视物流能力投资后无形价值计算的问题.最后用案例分析说明该模型在计算节点企业物流能力柔性价值上是有效的. 相似文献
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不确定环境下自然资源开发项目投资评价模型 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
以不确定环境下自然资源开发项目投资评价问题为研究对象,以现金收益、开发投资和运营成本的不确定性对投资价值的影响为切入点,在现有实物期权投资评价模型的基础上,同时考虑项目方在投资阶段推迟投资和在生产阶段暂停运营的管理柔性,建立基于多随机变量的自然资源开发项目实物期权投资评价模型. 应用交换型期权和鞅过程等定价理论给出了模型的解析解,并结合某原油开发项目的实例进行了参数的静态分析. 相似文献
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作业价值柔性管理方法研究 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
基于集成企业资源计划提出了作业价值柔性管理定义,以经济增加值结合现金流量管理为作业价值柔性管理的控制目标,运用预算差异分析方法得到了作业价值柔性管理需要响应的关键变量及合理作业执行定量化策略,通过信息耦合模型设计得到了定量策略的求解方法,通过实例演示了作业价值柔性管理的决策过程.结果显示,合理的作业技术选择策略能够响应环境变化,在实现价值目标的过程中使作业价值显示出动态柔性特征,同时作业价值柔性管理的定量策略还可为作业外包提供决策支持. 相似文献
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非对称信息条件下实物期权最优投资问题研究 总被引:16,自引:4,他引:16
描述了实物期权投资者和经营者价值函数,分析了不同信息条件下实物期权的最优投
资决策. 在非对称信息条件下,实物期权经营者对于项目价值信息隐匿,这是一个具有逆向选
择的委托代理问题. 设计了以实物期权投资者利润数学期望最大为目标函数,以投资和数量折
扣作为状态方程的最优控制问题. 应用极大值原理推导了实物期权最优投资和数量折扣的求
解方案. 最后,进行了实物期权最优投资的仿真实验,验证了实物期权在项目投资问题上的分
析结果. 相似文献
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基于实物期权的项目组合投资决策研究 总被引:5,自引:3,他引:5
基于项目投资决策的可延迟性特征,将实物期权的决策灵活性思想引入到企业的投资组合决策中,建立了基于实物期权的0-1整数规划模型.模型以项目的期权价值最大化作为投资组合项目选择的标准,通过项目组合投资时机的灵活安排,实现了项目组合的总投资价值最大化. 相似文献
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The theory on real options has extended the traditional net present value rule in order to capture the value of flexibility
in investment decisions. Typically, the theory of real options does not take into account agency conflicts (between central
and divisional management). In this paper, we investigate the influence of agency conflicts on real options within a LEN-type
model. We extend a standard LEN model with investment activities by explicitly considering the possibility to abandon an investment
project after all parties involved have received further information about the project’s development. Especially, we analyze
how the option’s flexibility value is influenced by the agency conflict. Our analysis shows that the real option alters the
trade-off between risk sharing and incentives that underlies the agency conflict. Thereby, situations can occur in which central
(and divisional) management evaluates the abandonment option ex ante differently than ex post. Using this framework, we discuss
the role of commitment and the advantages of centralization and delegation of the abandonment decision.
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Georg SchneiderEmail: |
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Complex engineering systems are usually designed to last for many years. Such systems will face many uncertainties in the future. Hence the design and deployment of these systems should not be based on a single scenario, but should incorporate flexibility. Flexibility can be incorporated in system architectures in the form of options that can be exercised in the future when new information is available. Incorporating flexibility comes, however, at a cost. To evaluate if this cost is worth the investment a real options analysis can be carried out. This approach is demonstrated through analysis of a case study of a previously developed static system-of-systems for maritime domain protection in the Straits of Malacca. This article presents a framework for dynamic strategic planning of engineering systems using real options analysis and demonstrates that flexibility adds considerable value over a static design. In addition to this it is shown that Monte Carlo analysis and genetic algorithms can be successfully combined to find solutions in a case with a very large number of possible futures and system designs. 相似文献
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Supply chain risk uncertainty can create severe repercussions, thus it is not surprising that research interest in supply chain risk has been growing. While extant inquiry is informative, there is a lack of investigations that center on supply chain investment decisions when facing high levels of risk uncertainty. Given the potential dollar value involved in these decisions, an understanding of how these supply chain decisions are made is of significant theoretical and practical importance. Real options theory, with its focus on decision making under conditions of uncertainty, is an appealing theoretical lens for this endeavor. In essence, real options theory asserts that managerial decisions center on creating and then exercising or not exercising certain opportunities. To date, theorizing about and investigations of real options have used firms as their focus. Not yet examined are real options within supply chains that cross firm boundaries and drive much of the competitive activity in the modern economy. Accordingly, we extend real options theory to the supply chain context by examining how different types of options are approached relative to supply chain project investments. Specifically, we theorize how the options will be related to perceived value under conditions of high supply chain risk uncertainty. Overall, our investigation builds knowledge by extending real options theory to the supply chain context and by providing evidence suggesting some options operate differently in supply chains than they do in firms. 相似文献
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This paper studies the impact of learning on a multi‐staged investment scenario. In contrast to other models in the real options literature in which learning is viewed as a passive consequence of the delay period, this paper quantifies information acquisition by merging statistical decision theory with the real options framework. In this context, real option attributes are discussed from a Bayesian perspective, thresholds are identified for improved decision‐making, and information's impact on downstream decision‐making is discussed. Using real data provided by a firm in the aerospace maintenance, repair, and overhaul industry, the methodology is used to guide a multi‐phased irreversible investment decision involving process design and capacity planning. 相似文献
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《Omega》2002,30(4):265-273
Product-mix flexibility is one of the major types of manufacturing flexibility, referring to the ability to produce a broad range of products or variants with presumed low changeover costs. The value of such a capability is important to establish for an industrial firm in order to ensure that the flexibility provided will be at the right level and used profitably rather than in excess of market requirements and consequently costly. We use option-pricing theory to analyse the impact of various product-mix issues on the value of flexibility. The real options model we use incorporates multiple products, capacity constraints as well as set-up costs. The issues treated here include the number of products, demand variability, correlation between products, and the relative demand distribution within the product mix. Thus, we are interested in the nature of the input data to analyse its effect on the value of flexibility. We also check the impact at different capacity levels. The results suggest that the value of flexibility (i) increases with an increasing number of products, (ii) decreases with increasing volatility of product demand, (iii) decreases the more positively correlated the demand is, and (iv) reduces for marginal capacity with increasing levels of capacity. Of these, the impact of positively correlated demand seems to be a major issue. However, the joint impact of the number of products and demand correlation showed some non-intuitive results. 相似文献