Detecting nuclear materials smuggling: performance evaluation of container inspection policies

In recent years, the United States, along with many other countries, has significantly increased its detection and defense mechanisms against terrorist attacks. A potential attack with a nuclear weapon, using nuclear materials smuggled into the country, has been identified as a particularly grave threat. The system for detecting illicit nuclear materials that is currently in place at U.S. ports of entry relies heavily on passive radiation detectors and a risk-scoring approach using the automated targeting system (ATS). In this article we analyze this existing inspection system and demonstrate its performance for several smuggling scenarios. We provide evidence that the current inspection system is inherently incapable of reliably detecting sophisticated smuggling attempts that use small quantities of well-shielded nuclear material. To counter the weaknesses of the current ATS-based inspection system, we propose two new inspection systems: the hardness control system (HCS) and the hybrid inspection system (HYB). The HCS uses radiography information to classify incoming containers based on their cargo content into "hard" or "soft" containers, which then go through different inspection treatment. The HYB combines the radiography information with the intelligence information from the ATS. We compare and contrast the relative performance of these two new inspection systems with the existing ATS-based system. Our studies indicate that the HCS and HYB policies outperform the ATS-based policy for a wide range of realistic smuggling scenarios. We also examine the impact of changes in adversary behavior on the new inspection systems and find that they effectively preclude strategic gaming behavior of the adversary.     

Container Scheduling: Complexity and Algorithms

We consider the transport of containers through a fleet of ships. Each ship has a capacity constraint limiting the total number of containers it can carry and each ship visits a given set of ports following a predetermined route. Each container has a release date at its origination port, and a due date at its destination port. A container has a size 1 or size 2; size 1 represents a 1 TEU (20‐foot equivalent unit) and size 2 represents 2 TEUs. The delivery time of a container is defined as the time when the ship that carries the container arrives at its destination port. We consider the problem of minimizing the maximum tardiness over all containers. We consider three scenarios with regard to the routes of the ships, namely, the ships having (i) identical, (ii) nested, and (iii) arbitrary routes. For each scenario, we consider different settings for origination ports, release dates, sizes of containers, and number of ports; we determine the computational complexity of various cases. We also provide a simple heuristic for some cases, with its worst case analysis. Finally, we discuss the relationship of our problems with other scheduling problems that are known to be open.     

Tighter MIP models for Barge Container Ship Routing

This paper addresses the problem of optimal planning of a liner service for a barge container shipping company. Given estimated weekly demands between pairs of ports, our goal is to determine the subset of ports to be called and the amount of containers to be shipped between each pair of ports, so as to maximize the profit of the shipping company. In order to save possible leasing or storage costs of empty containers at the respective ports, our approach takes into account the repositioning of empty containers. The line has to follow the outbound–inbound principle, starting from the port at the river mouth. We propose a novel integrated approach in which the shipping company can simultaneously optimize the route (along with repositioning of empty containers), the choice of the final port, length of the turnaround time and the size of its fleet. To solve this problem, a new mixed integer programming model is proposed. On the publicly available set of benchmark instances for barge container routing, we demonstrate that this model provides very tight dual bounds and significantly outperforms the existing approaches from the literature for splittable demands.We also show how to further improve this model by projecting out arc variables for modeling the shipping of empty containers. Our numerical study indicates that the latter model improves the computing times for the challenging case of unsplittable demands. We also study the impact of the turnaround time optimization on the total profit of the company.     

Scheduling material handling vehicles in a container terminal

Increasing global trade has created the need for efficient container ports. The goal of the port is to move containers as quickly as possible and at the least possible cost. Goods that are delayed at the port are inevitably tardy when delivered to the customer, and thus sanctioned by late charges. Two key activities in the port are (i) unloading of containers from truck and then storage in the export area, and (ii) removal of containers from import storage and then loading onto the trucks. Since containers are large and heavy, specialized material handling vehicles are required for transporting them within the terminal. The focus of this paper is on port terminals where straddle carriers are primarily used to move containers. Container terminals typically have well developed computer and communication networks. Through these networks a terminal scheduler will control and schedule the movement of the straddle carrier fleet in real time. The objective of the terminal scheduler is to minimize the empty travel of straddle carriers, while at the same time minimizing any delays in servicing customers. This paper presents a straddle scheduling procedure that can be used by a terminal scheduler to control the movement of straddle carriers. At its core, the procedure is driven by an assignment algorithm that dynamically matches straddle carriers and trucks, as each becomes available. The procedures were developed and tested in collaboration with the largest container terminal operator in the Port of New York and New Jersey. Using a simulation model of the real system, the superiority of the proposed procedure over two alternative scheduling strategies is illustrated.     

Bounding Estimates for Critical Events When Directly Disposing Highly Enriched Spent Nuclear Fuel in Unsaturated Tuff

This paper examines the possibility of criticality in a nuclear waste repository. The estimated probabilities are rough bounds and do not entirely dismiss the possibility of a critical condition; however, they do point to the difficulty of creating conditions under which a critical mass could be assembled (i.e., corrosion of containers, separation of neutron absorbers from the fissile material, and collapse or precipitation of the fissile material). In addition, should a criticality occur in or near a container, the bounding consequence calculations showed that fissions from one critical event are quite small (<˜10²⁰ fissions, if similar to aqueous and metal accidents and experiments). Furthermore, a reasonable upper bound of total critical events of 10²⁸ fissions corresponds to only 0.1% of the number of fissions represented by the spent nuclear fuel inventory in a repository containing 70,000 metric tons of heavy metal (MTHM) (the expected size for the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada).     

一种能力外包且费用时变批量问题的启发式算法

当企业自身能力不能满足需求时考虑外包,可以有效提高企业的竞争力。一种带能力外包的多产品动态经济批量问题得以提出,并设定外包能力使用价格较高且费用时变。建立混合整数规划模型,通过约束松弛与模型分解,设计出一个基于拉格朗日松弛理论的启发式算法进行模型求解。大量随机实验表明,无论解的质量还是求解时间都表现较好。     

集装箱码头堆场取箱时间窗优化研究

码头堆场是供装卸船舶存放集装箱的场所,同时也是向货主交接集装箱的地方.由于取箱车辆到达时间的不确定性,码头运营方需要在堆场进行大量的翻箱作业,消耗大量的劳动成本.首先对码头取箱时间窗优化机制进行了说明,构建了码头方补助金函数与车辆方的成本函数,获得了车辆方取箱的到达率函数,进而得到了码头方的翻箱次数公式.然后,描述了集...     

竞争环境下的轴-辐式集装箱海运网络设计问题

针对航运企业的重组与全球扩张引起的竞争问题,提出了竞争环境下的轴-辐式集装箱海运网络设计模型。模型采用基于路径的变量作为决策变量,利用离散函数来表示航运企业与航运联盟的竞争可吸引的流量(或客户),目的在于通过设计混合轴-辐式集装箱海运网络,实现以更低的服务成本和更短的服务时间最大化可吸引的流量,建立了枢纽港口数量约束、航线连接约束、航线中转约束、流量竞争约束等,运用多点交叉遗传算法进行求解,最后结合亚欧航线的集装箱海运市场进行实例分析,对考虑客户需求多样性与航运联盟对策下的轴-辐式集装箱海运网络进行设计,并验证了算法的计算效果。     

Deceptive Detection Methods for Effective Security with Inadequate Budgets: The Testing Power Index

Detection of contraband depends on countermeasures, some of which involve examining cargo containers and/or their associated documents. Document screening is the least expensive, physical methods, such as gamma ray detection are more expensive, and definitive manual unpacking is most expensive. We cannot apply the full array of methods to all incoming cargoes, for budgetary reasons. We study the problem using principles of game theory, and find that best detection rates are achieved when the available budget is allocated between screening and definitive unpacking using a mixture of strategies that maximize detection rate and, further, serve to deceive opponents as to the specific tests to which contraband will be subjected. This yields increases of as much as 100% in detection, with essentially no increase in inspection cost.     

A solution framework for the multi-mode resource-constrained cross-dock scheduling problem

In this paper we propose a framework for shift-level container scheduling and resource allocation decisions at a cross-dock facility. The Multi-Mode Resource-Constrained Cross-Dock Scheduling Problem (MRCDSP) approach minimizes material flow and schedules inbound and outbound containers to dock-doors such that the total processing time is minimized subject to the resource constraints at the cross-dock. While container scheduling and resource allocation problems at cross-dock facilities have been studied previously in isolation, our work is the first to consider a complete view of cross-dock operations providing optimal container to dock-door allocation, and a makespan minimizing schedule of containers to the cross-dock. We present a comprehensive framework that includes identification of container clusters to reduce the problem size, a container-to-dock-door assignment algorithm, and a container clusters scheduling model that is solvable for practically sized problems. In a comparative numeric study based on data simulating a cross-dock facility, our approach is shown to outperform current practice, reducing the average time required for processing a set of containers by 37% and reducing the weighted-distance material traveled within the cross-dock by 45%.     

An Industrial Ocean-Cargo Shipping Problem

This paper reports the modeling and solution of an industrial ocean-cargo shipping problem. The problem involves the delivery of bulk products from an overseas port to transshipment ports on the Atlantic Coast, and then over land to customers. The decisions made include the number and the size of ships to charter in each time period during the planning horizon, the number and location of transshipment ports to use, and transportation from ports to customers. The complexity of this problem is compounded by the cost structure, which includes fixed charges in both ship charters and port operations. Such a large scale, dynamic, and stochastic problem is reduced to a solvable stationary, deterministic, and cyclical model. The process of modeling the problem and the solution of the resultant mixed integer program are described in detail. Recommendations from this study have been implemented.     

A New Approach to Hazardous Materials Transportation Risk Analysis: Decision Modeling to Identify Critical Variables

We take a novel approach to analyzing hazardous materials transportation risk in this research. Previous studies analyzed this risk from an operations research (OR) or quantitative risk assessment (QRA) perspective by minimizing or calculating risk along a transport route. Further, even though the majority of incidents occur when containers are unloaded, the research has not focused on transportation-related activities, including container loading and unloading. In this work, we developed a decision model of a hazardous materials release during unloading using actual data and an exploratory data modeling approach. Previous studies have had a theoretical perspective in terms of identifying and advancing the key variables related to this risk, and there has not been a focus on probability and statistics-based approaches for doing this. Our decision model empirically identifies the critical variables using an exploratory methodology for a large, highly categorical database involving latent class analysis (LCA), loglinear modeling, and Bayesian networking. Our model identified the most influential variables and countermeasures for two consequences of a hazmat incident, dollar loss and release quantity , and is one of the first models to do this. The most influential variables were found to be related to the failure of the container. In addition to analyzing hazmat risk, our methodology can be used to develop data-driven models for strategic decision making in other domains involving risk.     

Terrorism Risks and Cost‐Benefit Analysis of Aviation Security

We evaluate, for the U.S. case, the costs and benefits of three security measures designed to reduce the likelihood of a direct replication of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. To do so, we assess risk reduction, losses, and security costs in the context of the full set of security layers. The three measures evaluated are installed physical secondary barriers (IPSB) to restrict access to the hardened cockpit door during door transitions, the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), and the Federal Flight Deck Officer (FFDO) Program. In the process, we examine an alternate policy measure: doubling the budget of the FFDO program to $44 million per year, installing IPSBs in all U.S. aircraft at a cost of $13.5 million per year, and reducing funding for FAMS by 75% to $300 million per year. A break‐even cost‐benefit analysis then finds the minimum probability of an otherwise successful attack required for the benefit of each security measures to equal its cost. We find that the IPSB is costeffective if the annual attack probability of an otherwise successful attack exceeds 0.5% or one attack every 200 years. The FFDO program is costeffective if the annual attack probability exceeds 2%. On the other hand, more than two otherwise successful attacks per year are required for FAMS to be costeffective. A policy that includes IPSBs, an increased budget for FFDOs, and a reduced budget for FAMS may be a viable policy alternative, potentially saving hundreds of millions of dollars per year with consequences for security that are, at most, negligible.     

A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Alternative Device Configurations for Aviation-Checked Baggage Security Screening

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 have resulted in dramatic changes in aviation security. As of early 2003, an estimated 1,100 explosive detection systems (EDS) and 6,000 explosive trace detection machines (ETD) have been deployed to ensure 100% checked baggage screening at all commercial airports throughout the United States. The prohibitive costs associated with deploying and operating such devices is a serious issue for the Transportation Security Administration. This article evaluates the cost effectiveness of the explosive detection technologies currently deployed to screen checked baggage as well as new technologies that could be used in the future. Both single-device and two-device systems are considered. In particular, the expected annual direct cost of using these devices for 100% checked baggage screening under various scenarios is obtained and the tradeoffs between using single- and two-device strategies are studied. The expected number of successful threats under the different checked baggage screening scenarios with 100% checked baggage screening is also obtained. Lastly, a risk-based screening strategy proposed in the literature is analyzed. The results reported suggest that for the existing security setup, with current device costs and probability parameters, single-device systems are less costly and have fewer expected number of successful threats than two-device systems due to the way the second device affects the alarm or clear decision. The risk-based approach is found to have the potential to significantly improve security. The cost model introduced provides an effective tool for the execution of cost-benefit analyses of alternative device configurations for aviation-checked baggage security screening.     

Optimal Stopping Analysis of a Radiation Detection System to Protect Cities from a Nuclear Terrorist Attack

We formulate and analyze an optimal stopping problem concerning a terrorist who is attempting to drive a nuclear or radiological weapon toward a target in a city center. In our model, the terrorist needs to travel through a two-dimensional lattice containing imperfect radiation sensors at some of the nodes, and decides at each node whether to detonate the bomb or proceed. We consider five different scenarios containing various informational structures and two different sensor array topologies: the sensors are placed randomly or they form an outer wall around the periphery of the city. We find that sensors can act as a deterrent in some cases, and that the government prefers the outer wall topology unless the sensors have a very low detection probability and the budget is tight (so that they are sparsely deployed).     

竞争环境下基于服务约束的轴-辐式海运网络优化研究

针对同一海运市场中不同的海运企业——领导者与跟随者在设计多分配的轴-辐式海运网络时引起的竞争问题,突破已往枢纽港口集合是给定的假设,将航线连接设计扩展为可存在多条,引入基于服务约束（服务质量\价格\时间）的吸引力模型来定量表示托运人的选择行为,建立了竞争环境下基于服务约束的轴-辐式海运网络优化问题的数学模型,利用NCP函数、凝聚函数和增广Lagrange乘子罚函数法对这一问题进行求解。算例仿真结果显示：（1）跟随者在托运人考虑单位服务价格时,即使不存在规模经济效应,跟随者也可通过建立合适的枢纽港口来获取一定的市场机会;（2）跟随者在存在较大规模经济效应时其利润最可观,因采用比例模型,在不存在规模经济效应下跟随者在领导者决定设计不同数量的枢纽港口时其利润不会统一收敛于某一定值;（3）跟随者在领导者仅设计1个枢纽港口时可通过建立大量的枢纽港口来争夺丰厚的利润,但对于港口集合 N={1,2,…,12} 的海运市场,领导者只需设计2个以上枢纽港口时跟随者的利润空间便会受到较大挤压。     

Target-guided algorithms for the container pre-marshalling problem

The container pre-marshalling problem (CPMP) aims to rearrange containers in a bay with the least movement effort; thus, in the final layout, containers are piled according to a predetermined order. Previous researchers, without exception, assumed that all the stacks in a bay are functionally identical. Such a classical problem setting is reexamined in this paper. Moreover, a new problem, the CPMP with a dummy stack (CPMPDS) is proposed. At terminals with transfer lanes, a bay includes a row of ordinary stacks and a dummy stack. The dummy stack is actually the bay space that is reserved for trucks. Therefore, containers can be shipped out from the bay. During the pre-marshalling process, the dummy stack temporarily stores containers as an ordinary stack. However, the dummy stack must be emptied at the end of pre-marshalling. In this paper, target-guided algorithms are proposed to handle both the classical CPMP and new CPMPDS. All the proposed algorithms guarantee termination. Experimental results in terms of the CPMP show that the proposed algorithms surpass the state-of-the-art algorithm.     

Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Homeland Security Research: A Risk-Informed Methodology with Applications for the U.S. Coast Guard

This article describes a methodology for risk-informed benefit–cost analyses of homeland security research products. The methodology is field-tested with 10 research products developed for the U.S. Coast Guard. Risk-informed benefit–cost analysis is a tool for risk management that integrates elements of risk analysis, decision analysis, and benefit–cost analysis. The cost analysis methodology includes a full-cost accounting of research projects, starting with initial fundamental research costs and extending to the costs of implementation of the research products and, where applicable, training, maintenance, and upgrade costs. The benefits analysis methodology is driven by changes in costs and risks leading to five alternative models: cost savings at the same level of security, increased security at the same cost, signal detection improvements, risk reduction by deterrence, and value of information. The U.S. Coast Guard staff selected 10 research projects to test and generalize the methodology. Examples include tools to improve the detection of explosives, reduce the costs of harbor patrols, and provide better predictions of hurricane wind speeds and floods. Benefits models and estimates varied by research project and many input parameters of the benefit estimates were highly uncertain, so risk analysis for sensitivity testing and simulation was important. Aggregating across the 10 research products, we found an overall median net present value of about $385 million, with a range from $54 million (5th percentile) to $877 million (95th percentile). Lessons learned are provided for future applications.     

Securing Passenger Aircraft from the Threat of Man‐Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS)

In this article, we develop a model for the expected maximum hit probability of an attack on a commercial aircraft using MANPADS, as a function of the (random) location of the attacker. We also explore the sensitivity of the expected maximum hit probability to the parameters of the model, including both attacker parameters (such as weapon characteristics) and defender parameters (such as the size of the secure region around the airport). We conclude that having a large secure region around an airport offers some protection against MANPADS, and that installing onboard countermeasures reduces the success probability of a MANPADS attack.     

The Impact of Joint Responses of Devices in an Airport Security System

In this article, we consider a model for an airport security system in which the declaration of a threat is based on the joint responses of inspection devices. This is in contrast to the typical system in which each check station independently declares a passenger as having a threat or not having a threat. In our framework the declaration of threat/no-threat is based upon the passenger scores at the check stations he/she goes through. To do this we use concepts from classification theory in the field of multivariate statistics analysis and focus on the main objective of minimizing the expected cost of misclassification. The corresponding correct classification and misclassification probabilities can be obtained by using a simulation-based method. After computing the overall false alarm and false clear probabilities, we compare our joint response system with two other independently operated systems. A model that groups passengers in a manner that minimizes the false alarm probability while maintaining the false clear probability within specifications set by a security authority is considered. We also analyze the staffing needs at each check station for such an inspection scheme. An illustrative example is provided along with sensitivity analysis on key model parameters. A discussion is provided on some implementation issues, on the various assumptions made in the analysis, and on potential drawbacks of the approach.