电缆固定成本分摊方法的探讨

以本公司在固定成本分摊方法上的探索和实践,分析了电缆行业沿用“按千米来分摊固定成本”的传统方法所存在的弊端,提出了“按工时分摊固定成本”的观念和计算方法。     

传统多品种本量利分析存在的问题及改进

本量利(CVP)分析是企业进行生产经营决策的重要依据,传统本量利分析的数学模型存在一定的缺陷,影响了本量利分析的正确性。引进可避免固定成本和不可避免固定成本的概念,对传统本量利分析的数学模型进行了改进,使之更趋完善。     

按变动成本分摊固定成本的管理方法与探讨

以电缆盘制造企业在固定成本分摊方法上的实践和探索,分析了电缆盘制造业沿用“不分规格大小,按数量分摊固定成本”的传统方法所存在的弊端,提出了“按单位变动成本来分摊固定成本”的理念和计算方法。     

为何高出口密集度企业的生产率更低?——基于固定成本异质性视角的解释

为何高出口密集度企业的生产率反而更低?通过将出口密集度和固定成本的取舍关系融入经典异质性企业贸易模型,本文阐述了出口密集度与企业生产率的关联机制。模型结论表明:低效率企业会通过"低固定成本—高出口密集度"方式参与对外贸易,高效率企业则通过"高固定成本—低出口密集度"方式同时在国内和国外市场进行规模化销售。当外需减小时,大规模高出口密集度企业可能首先退出市场。利用中国工业企业层面的微观数据,本文为理论模型提供了稳健的经验证据。     

基于DEA联盟博弈核仁解的固定成本分摊方法研究

本文结合DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis)和联盟博弈理论研究了固定成本分摊问题.本文首先证明了在固定成本作为决策单元(Decision Making Unit,DMU)新投入要素的条件下,那么DMU个体和整体将同为DEA有效,在此结论的基础上,本文结合联盟博弈理论,定义了联盟博弈的特征函数,提出了基于核仁解的固定成本分摊模型,并给出了相应的求解算法,最终通过算例说明了本文方法的合理性和求解算法的可行性.     

旅游景区类企业经营绩效的敏感性因素分析——以吉首德夯旅游实业有限公司为例

本文应用动态盈亏临界点分析法,利用吉首德夯旅游实业有限公司2004-2008年的运营数据进行实证分析,发现对旅游景区类企业利润影响程度最高的是单位游客消费额,以下依次为游客量、固定成本、单位变动成本.据此,应设法增加单位游客消费额,提高客流量,降低固定成本,进-步降低单位变动成本,以取得良好的经营管理业绩.     

关于火电企业燃料成本控制问题的浅析与探讨

燃料作为火力发电企业的“食粮”，占整个火力发电成本的70－80％左右，有效控制好电厂的燃料成本支出，实施低成本竞争是发电企业提升竞争力的基本途径。根据目前火电企业的经营活动实际，在固定成本和上网电价相对稳定的情况下，决定利润高低的是变动成本。而由于燃料成本占火电厂成本的70—80％左右，故控制好了燃料成各，就相当于掌握了电厂的利润指标。     

风险型量本利分析模型的建立

在传统的量本利分析中,一般先假定销售量、销售单价、单位变动成本和固定成本中的某几个参数保持不变,然后再进行分析,因此,这种量本利分析为一种无风险的确定型分析.但在实际工作中,这些参数受很多因素的影响,企业外部市场环境和企业内部因素的变化都会导致产品的销售量、销售单价、单位变动成本和固定成本发生变化,在分析某些因素时假设其他因素不发生变化是不现实的,因此,在这种情况下,有必要进行风险型量本利分析.     

城市房地产业可持续发展的实证分析与研究

在传统的量本利分析中,一般先假定销售量、销售单价、单位变动成本和固定成本中的某几个参数保持不变,然后再进行分析,因此,这种量本利分析为一种无风险的确定型分析.但在实际工作中,这些参数受很多因素的影响,企业外部市场环境和企业内部因素的变化都会导致产品的销售量、销售单价、单位变动成本和固定成本发生变化,在分析某些因素时假设其他因素不发生变化是不现实的,因此,在这种情况下,有必要进行风险型量本利分析.     

考虑满意度的两阶段DEA固定成本分摊方法

考虑具有相同的投入和产出的两阶段决策单元的固定成本分摊问题。将待分摊的固定成本作为一种新的投入，建立两阶段加性DEA模型。首先证明了各决策单元从自身角度出发可以找到至少一种分摊方案，使其自身整体和阶段效率都达到Pareto有效。然后证明了在公共的权重下，至少存在一种分摊方案可以使得各决策单元整体和阶段效率都达到Pareto有效。并给出了这样的有效成本分摊方案集。为了得到公平的成本分摊方案，定义了各DMU各阶段对分摊方案的满意度，最大化最小的满意度，可以得到最终的成本分摊方案。将问题拓展到两阶段存在共享投入的生产系统中，这些性质定理同样成立。数值算例部分将本文与Yu等（2016）的研究结果进行了对比，验证了本文方法的有效性，指出了本文方法的优越性。本文的方法综合考虑了效率和公平，得到的固定成本分摊方案公平合理。     

An integrated model for slack-based measure of super-efficiency in additive DEA

As a non-radial approach, a super-efficiency model, Super SBM, was proposed by Tone [15] to rank efficient DMUs. Du et al. [7] extends the Super SBM model to the additive (slacks-based) DEA model. To obtain the super-efficiencies of the DMUs, one needs to identify the efficient DMUs first and then apply the additive super-efficiency model to those efficient DMUs. In this paper, we propose an integrated model so that the efficiencies of the inefficient DMUs and the super-efficiencies of the efficient DMUs can be obtained by a single model. The efficiency scores obtained by our integrated model are the same as those obtained by Du et al. [7] and the additive DEA model.     

Armitage-Doll Two-Stage Model: Implications and Extension

The objective of this paper is twofold: (1) to provide insight on the simplified MVK model of carcinogenesis (a model proposed by Moolgavkar and colleagues) by revealing the relationship between the Armitage-Doll two-stage model and the simplified MVK model; and (2) to extend the Armitage-Doll two-stage model to one with time-varying (piece-wise constant) parameters. It is shown that the simplified MVK model is a special case of the Armitage-Doll two-stage model, and many applications of the simplified MVK model involving intermittent exposures or exposures to different compounds in different time periods can be derived easily from the Armitage-Doll two-stage model with piece-wise constant parameters. The limitations of the Armitage-Doll two-stage model are discussed.     

考虑促销因素的医药电商平台需求预测研究

医药电商平台需求预测涉及到药品自身属性及电商平台推出的各种促销活动,本文针对以上影响药品销量的因素提出了时间序列-机器学习组合模型对医药电商平台进行需求预测。传统研究促销因素的需求预测文献将促销阶段商品销量拆分为常规销量和促销增量的线性组合,本文首先拟合各药品促销阶段的常规销量,根据各药品常规销量时间序列数据及服用周期,使用SARIMA模型拟合药品的常规销量预测值,并将常规销量预测值与商品促销特征数据一同输入XGBoost模型进行集成学习预测。本文使用国内某医药电商平台真实销售数据测试组合模型的有效性,结果显示组合预测模型的预测效果相比其他三种传统预测模型更优。此外,本文验证了不同折扣力度下组合预测模型的有效性,以及促销变量在预测模型中的有效性,同时研究了数据共享策略在需求预测中的应用场景,结果显示预测模型在引入促销变量和采用数据共享策略后都能显著降低模型的预测误差。     

短期利率模型在上交所债券市场上的实证分析

以中国上海证券交易所从债券价格导出的0.5年期利率的周度数据为分析对象,使用SNP法,估计出短期利率的条件密度函数,发现其条件分布具有明显的异方差性和非正态性.然后利用EMM法实证分析了常用的连续时间的单因子和两因子短期利率模型.单因子短期利率模型包括Vasicek模型,CIR模型,CKLS模型等,两因子利率模型包括Gallant,Tanchen给出的随机波动率模型和Balduzzi等人的随机均值回复模型.实证结果表明所有的单因子短期利率模型都不能很好地描述中国上海证券交易所债券市场上的短期利率变化,CKLS模型是它们中表现最好的单因子利率模型.随机均值回复模型也不能描述短期利率的变化,只有随机波动率模型可以描述上海证券交易所的短期利率的变化.     

基于分段参数型DEA前沿面的投入—产出型技术效率

由传统DEA模型可以直接测算投入固定(产出固定)的条件下,面向产出(投入)的技术效率。尽管加型DEA模型同时考虑了投入和产出的松弛,但却不能像传统模型一样直接测算投入—产出型技术效率。为了直接由加性模型测算投入产出型技术效率,本文将利用DEA有效决策单元建立分段参数型DEA生产前沿面,并根据古典技术效率的定义,解决投入产出型技术效率的测算问题。研究发现,这种效率实质上是产出型技术效率与投入配置效率的乘积。由于同时考虑了投入和产出的技术无效性,与其它类型的技术效率相比,这种投入产出型技术效率的可分性更强。     

The Agency Model for Digital Goods

While digital goods industries such as entertainment, software, and publishing are growing at a rapid pace, traditional supply chain contract models have failed to evolve with the new digital economy. To illustrate, the agency model utilized by the e‐book publishing industry has recently received much negative attention brought by the U.S. Department of Justice's lawsuit against Apple, Inc. The emerging agency model in the e‐book industry works as follows: the publisher sets the price of the digital goods and the retailers who serve as agents retain a percentage of the revenue associated with a consumer purchase. The regulators claim that the agency model is hurting this industry as well as the consumer's welfare because e‐book prices have increased after the introduction of the agency model. We investigate the strategic impact of the agency model by examining a digital goods supply chain with one supplier and two competing retailers. In comparison to the benchmark wholesale model, we find that the agency model can coordinate the competing retailers by dividing the coordinated profits into a prenegotiated revenue sharing proportion. Further, we also identify the Pareto improving region whereby both the supplier and the retailers prefer the agency model to the wholesale model. Our main qualitative insight regarding the agency model still holds even when we consider the presence of the printed books in the marketplace. Thus, contrary to current press presaging the negative impact of the agency model on the e‐books industry, we find the agency model to be superior to the traditional wholesale contracts for publishers, retailers and consumers in this digital goods industry.     

A fair evaluation of certain stage in a two-stage structure: revisiting the typical two-stage DEA approaches

The efficiency of decision processes with a two-stage structure has been studied by some modified versions of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) methodology, such as the relational or centralized model, and the non-cooperative model. After revisiting the rationale of the centralized model provided by the literature, we find that some unfairness exist in its efficiency evaluation of certain stage. This unfairness leads to the usual underestimation of the overall efficiency by the centralized model. Furthermore, because the independent DEA model for one stage ignores its relation and coordination with the other stage and the two-stage system, externalities between these members may arise and lead to the seeming contradiction in efficiencies derived by independent DEA models for the stages and the black box system. Therefore, we argue that the efficiency of certain stage in the context of a two-stage structure should be reevaluated instead of simply using the independent DEA model. A sequence of leader-follower procedures, with data adjustment on intermediates, is proposed to eliminate the externalities and to ensure a fair evaluation. We find that, after this data adjustment, the reevaluation of the second stage for a given Decision Making Unit (DMU) yields the same result as obtained by the standard DEA model regarding the two-stage as a black box. Moreover, some explicit relations are established between the black box model, the centralized model, and the non-cooperative model. Two typical examples taken from the literature illustrate our main results. Our findings also imply that more emphasis should be placed on the game theoretic DEA approach to model the efficiency evaluation of two-stage processes.     

一类高新技术企业专利权价值的实物期权评估方法——基于跳扩散过程和随机波动率的美式期权的建模与模拟

由于经典的Black-Scholes期权定价模型的假设忽略了突发事件对资产价格的影响和"波动率微笑"对期权价值的影响而与实际情形往往存在偏差,因此学者们对Black-Scholes模型的改进则主要分别集中在带跳扩散过程的期权定价模型与具随机波动率的期权定价模型等两个方面,然而却少见将这两种模型结合起来的研究。本文首先在带跳扩散过程的期权定价模型与具随机波动率的期权定价模型的研究工作的基础上,建立了一种同时带跳扩散过程和具随机波动率的美式期权定价模型,并通过伊藤引理推导出了资产价格、随机波动率和期权满足的偏微分方程;然后,利用特征函数法和傅里叶变换导出了资产价格的随机分布,进而通过马尔科夫链方法给出了基于跳扩散过程和随机波动率的美式期权的数值解;最后,运用已建立的带跳扩散过程和随机波动率的美式期权定价模型对高新技术企业项目投资的专利权价值进行实物期权定价评估的案例研究,并对跳扩散强度参数和随机波动率参数进行敏感性分析,研究结果表明:将项目收益跳扩散过程和市场环境随机波动率加入到专利权实物期权定价模型中,可以有效避免专利权的期权价值被高估。     

A slacks-based measure of super-efficiency in data envelopment analysis: An alternative approach

The current paper proposes a slack-based version of the Super SBM, which is an alternative super-efficiency model for the SBM proposed by Tone. Our two-stage approach provides the same super-efficiency score as that obtained by the Super SBM model when the evaluated DMU is efficient and yields the same efficiency score as that obtained by the SBM model when the evaluated DMU is inefficient. The projection identified by the Super SBM model may not be strongly Pareto efficient; however, the projection identified from our approach is strongly Pareto efficient.     

跨地区企业投入产出模型研究

本文针对现代企业跨地区生产经营的特点,对经典企业投入产出模型进行扩展,引入地区变量,编制了跨地区企业投入产出表并建立了相应的跨地区企业投入产出理论模型。在此基础上,对跨地区企业投入产出表模型的特征进行系统总结,并比较了跨地区企业投入产出模型与地区间投入产出模型及经典企业投入产出模型的差异。