GIS‐Based Integration of Social Vulnerability and Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Advance Emergency Preparedness,Planning, and Response for Severe Nuclear Power Plant Accidents

In the nuclear power industry, Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is used to estimate damage to public health and the environment if a severe accident leads to large radiological release. Current Level 3 PRA does not have an explicit inclusion of social factors and, therefore, it is not possible to perform importance ranking of social factors for risk‐informing emergency preparedness, planning, and response (EPPR). This article offers a methodology for adapting the concept of social vulnerability, commonly used in natural hazard research, in the context of a severe nuclear power plant accident. The methodology has four steps: (1) calculating a hazard‐independent social vulnerability index for the local population; (2) developing a location‐specific representation of the maximum radiological hazard estimated from current Level 3 PRA, in a geographic information system (GIS) environment; (3) developing a GIS‐based socio‐technical risk map by combining the social vulnerability index and the location‐specific radiological hazard; and (4) conducting a risk importance measure analysis to rank the criticality of social factors based on their contribution to the socio‐technical risk. The methodology is applied using results from the 2012 Surry Power Station state‐of‐the‐art reactor consequence analysis. A radiological hazard model is generated from MELCOR accident consequence code system, translated into a GIS environment, and combined with the Center for Disease Control social vulnerability index (SVI). This research creates an opportunity to explicitly consider and rank the criticality of location‐specific SVI themes based on their influence on risk, providing input for EPPR.     

A Nuclear Utility's Views on the Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a relatively new tool in the nuclear industry. The Reactor Safety Study started the present trend of conducting PRAs for nuclear power plants when it was published in 1975. Now, nine years later, those in the industry currently using PRA techniques are frequently asked the same question: Why should the nuclear utility industry, with so many accepted analytical tools already available, invest the time and manpower to develop a new technique with so many uncertainties?     

Nuclear Plant PRA: How Far Has It Come?

Nearly ten years have passed since the publication in August 1974 of the draft Reactor Safety Study (WASH 1400), the first detailed attempt to apply probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques to estimate the public risks posed by commercial nuclear power plants. Now is an opportune time to look back and see how PRA has fared over these ten years. We will not attempt to pass judgement on how the Reactor Safety Study report itself has withstood the test of time, as that task is best left to others less directly involved in preparing the report. Instead, we will examine advances in the understanding, acceptance, and utilization of PRA techniques, as well as technical advances in PRA methods. Some of the significant insights gained from PRAs will be discussed. Finally, some observations on the future of PRA will be offered.     

Managing Safety‐Related Disruptions: Evidence from the U.S. Nuclear Power Industry

Low‐probability, high‐impact events are difficult to manage. Firms may underinvest in risk assessments for low‐probability, high‐impact events because it is not easy to link the direct and indirect benefits of doing so. Scholarly research on the effectiveness of programs aimed at reducing such events faces the same challenge. In this article, we draw on comprehensive industry‐wide data from the U.S. nuclear power industry to explore the impact of conducting probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) on preventing safety‐related disruptions. We examine this using data from over 25,000 monthly event reports across 101 U.S. nuclear reactors from 1985 to 1998. Using Poisson fixed effects models with time trends, we find that the number of safety‐related disruptions reduced between 8% and 27% per month in periods after operators submitted their PRA in response to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Generic Letter 88‐20, which required all operators to conduct a PRA. One possible mechanism for this is that the adoption of PRA may have increased learning rates, lowering the rate of recurring events by 42%. We find that operators that completed their PRA before Generic Letter 88‐20 continued to experience safety improvements during 1990–1995. This suggests that revisiting PRA or conducting it again can be beneficial. Our results suggest that even in a highly safety‐conscious industry as nuclear utilities, a more formal approach to quantifying risk has its benefits.     

Probabilistic Risk Analyses: NRC Programs and Perspectives

The historical basis and more recent activities and products of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) in the Atomic Energy Commission and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) are reviewed. Current NRC program activities and objectives are described. The author's opinions on the best uses of PRA are presented.     

Beyond Make‐Buy: Internalization and Integration of Design and Production

Much recent attention in industrial practice has been centered on the question of which activities a manufacturing firm should complete for itself and for which it should rely on outside suppliers. This issue, generally labeled the “make‐buy” decision, has received substantial theoretical and empirical attention. In this paper, we broaden the scope of the make‐buy decision to include product design decisions, as well as production decisions. First, we examine independently the decisions of whether to internalize design and production, and then we consider how design and production organizational decisions are interdependent. The specific research questions we address are: (1) How can design and production sourcing decisions be described in richer terms than “make” and “buy”? (2) Do existing theories of vertical integration apply to product design activities as well as production decisions? (3) What is the relationship between the organization of design and the organization of production? (4) What organizational forms for design and production are seen in practice? After developing theoretical arguments and a conceptual framework, we explore these ideas empirically through an analysis of design and production sourcing decisions for bicycle frames in the U. S. mountain bicycle industry.     

Integrating Software into PRA: A Test-Based Approach

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a methodology to assess the probability of failure or success of a system's operation. PRA has been proved to be a systematic, logical, and comprehensive technique for risk assessment. Software plays an increasing role in modern safety critical systems. A significant number of failures can be attributed to software failures. Unfortunately, current probabilistic risk assessment concentrates on representing the behavior of hardware systems, humans, and their contributions (to a limited extent) to risk but neglects the contributions of software due to a lack of understanding of software failure phenomena. It is thus imperative to consider and model the impact of software to reflect the risk in current and future systems. The objective of our research is to develop a methodology to account for the impact of software on system failure that can be used in the classical PRA analysis process. A test-based approach for integrating software into PRA is discussed in this article. This approach includes identification of software functions to be modeled in the PRA, modeling of the software contributions in the ESD, and fault tree. The approach also introduces the concepts of input tree and output tree and proposes a quantification strategy that uses a software safety testing technique. The method is applied to an example system, PACS.     

The components of strategic planning

What is the current level of strategic planning in the United States? What objectives are quantified in the strategic plans? What kinds of environmental factors are identified in the planning process? What areas are planned for? How often are the strategic plans reviewed? These are among the questions which were raised in a recent survey of 323 companies whose results are summarized in this paper. It is hoped that this study will permit practitioners to compare their planning with planning being performed in their industry.Suggested improvements in the stategic planning process include more frequent monitoring of performance against the plans, more comprehensive environmental surveillance, and greater emphasis on organizational structure plans. The strategic planning process was found to be constantly evolving and cyclical. The strategic planning activity expanded during adversity and contracted when business prospects were good.     

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Wastes Buried in the Ground

The differences between probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and safety analysis (SA) are discussed, and it is shown that PRA is more suitable than SA for determining the acceptability of a technology. Since a PRA by the fault tree-event tree analysis method used for reactor safety studies does not seem to be practical for buried waste, an alternative approach is suggested using geochemical analogs. This method is illustrated for the cases of high-level and low-level radioactive waste and for chemical carcinogens released in coal burning.     

The governance of free/open source software projects: monolithic, multidimensional, or configurational?

This paper presents the results of a qualitative review and synthesis of the literature on open source governance, addressing four key questions: (1) How has open source software (OSS) governance been defined? (2) Has the phenomenon of OSS governance been conceptualized as a monolithic or multidimensional phenomenon? (3) What purposes is OSS governance hypothesized to serve? and (4) What are the dimensions of OSS governance, and how are these dimensions related to each other? The results of the review suggest a framework for future comparative and case study research on OSS governance, and they provide a basis for comparison with research on the governance of other distributed, community-based forms of content and creation.     

Challenges to the Acceptance of Probabilistic Risk Analysis

This paper discusses a number of the key challenges to the acceptance and application of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Those challenges include: (a) the extensive reliance on subjective judgment in PRA, requiring the development of guidance for the use of PRA in risk-informed regulation, and possibly the development of robust or reference prior distributions to minimize the reliance on judgment; and (b) the treatment of human performance in PRA, including not only human error per se but also management and organizational factors more broadly. All of these areas are seen as presenting interesting research challenges at the interface between engineering and other disciplines.     

The EO in OBM

Abstract

Olson, Laraway, and Austin (2001) propose an increased emphasis on the establishing operation in organizational behavior management. Their proposal raises interesting questions about theory, science, and practice. (1) What should be the role of theory in behavior analysis? (2) Should we try to find problems that match our solutions or vice versa ? (3) What is the relative importance of the establishing operation and the performance-management contingency in managing organizational behavior? (4) Should theory and basic research be more informed by the issues raised in applied settings?     

Site-Specific Applications of Probabilistic Health Risk Assessment: Review of the Literature Since 2000

Whether and to what extent contaminated sites harm ecologic and human health are topics of considerable interest, but also considerable uncertainty. Several federal and state agencies have approved the use of some or many aspects of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), but its site-specific application has often been limited to high-profile sites and large projects. Nonetheless, times are changing: newly developed software tools, and recent federal and state guidance documents formalizing PRA procedures, now make PRA a readily available method of analysis for even small-scale projects. This article presents and discusses a broad review of PRA literature published since 2000.     

Uncertainties in Nuclear Probabilistic Risk Analyses

There are many uncertainties in a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). We identify the different types of uncertainties and describe their implications. We then summarize the uncertainty analyses which have performed in current PRAs and characterize results which have been obtained. We draw conclusions regarding interpretations of uncertainties, areas having largest uncertainties, and needs which exist in uncertainty analysis. We finally characterize the robustness of various utilizations of PRA results.     

Sourcing Research as an Intellectual Network of Ideas*

What are the current intellectual clusters in the sourcing literature? How do these clusters relate to each other? How has sourcing‐related research changed over the last 10 years? We respond to these questions by examining the intellectual structure of research in the sourcing literature across 21 journals during the last decade (1998–2007). Multidimensional scaling is used to analyze cocitation data involving 72,003 citations from 1,960 sourcing articles. The results indicate that 10 different sourcing clusters emerged in the 1998–2002 period and 6 sourcing clusters surfaced in the 2003–2007 period. Five of the intellectual clusters in 1998–2002 disappeared in 2003–2007, five clusters remained, and one new cluster materialized in 2003–2007 that did not exist in the earlier period (Managerial Behavior and Upstream Decision Making).     

Sales force automation: review,critique, research agenda

We review and critique the research literature on sales force automation (SFA). SFA involves the application of information technology to support the sales function. SFA software provides functionality that helps companies manage sales pipelines, track contacts and configure products, inter alia. The paper is organized into four main sections. First, we review the SFA environment, identifying definitions, vendor classifications and software attributes. We then move to a review and classification of the academic research that has been published on SFA. We find that the entire body of SFA knowledge attempts to answer just four questions: Why do organizations adopt SFA? What are the organizational impacts of SFA? What accounts for the success or failure of SFA projects? What accounts for variance in salesperson adoption of SFA? We then critique this body of knowledge on a number of theoretical and methodological grounds, and finally propose a research agenda for the future.     

Computerized corporate planning

Computerized Corporate Planning as defined in this study is: the use of the computer to simulate the effect of alternative strategies on achievement of corporate objectives; the capability of answering ‘What if?’ questions.

The increasing complexity of business firms operating in a rapidly changing environment has led many managers in recent years to consider the development of computerized corporate planning systems. This article is concerned with an in depth study of some 55 such installations in North America and Europe. The objective of this effort conducted during the period of June –November 1970, was to determine the state of the art, identify problems of installation, and project trends in the rapidly evolving use of computers in planning. Specific questions include:

What is the economic justification for these systems? How are they being used? Who is using them? Have results measured up to expectations? What are the costs? Are organizational problems incurred?