丧偶对中国老年人健康的影响:社会连结的调节作用北大核心CSSCI

中国作为人口老龄化发展速度最快的国家之一,正在迎来规模日益庞大的晚年丧偶群体。预计2050年我国60岁及以上的丧偶人口规模将达到1.18亿左右。近年来老年丧偶者的生活质量受到政府和学界的广泛关注。本文利用六期“中国老年人健康影响因素跟踪调查(CLHLS)”数据分析丧偶对我国老年人多种健康指标的影响以及社会连结在其中发挥的调节作用。研究发现丧偶会影响老年人的健康后果和健康行为。在健康后果方面,丧偶对老年人认知功能的影响具有显著的性别差异。丧偶降低了老年男性的认知功能,但在一定时期内提高了老年女性的认知功能。同时,丧偶会对老年人的心理健康产生负面影响。在健康行为方面,丧偶提高了老年女性参与体育锻炼的可能性和老年男性抽烟的可能性。此外,丧偶效应因丧偶前社会连结的不同而存在差异。婚姻质量较低的老年男性在丧偶之后IADL能力反而提高;经常打牌/麻将有助于抑制丧偶对老年男性和女性IADL能力的不利影响,同时也可以抑制丧偶对老年女性慢性病数量的增加作用;子女支持有助于抑制丧偶对老年男性心理健康的负面影响。     

人格特征会影响中国人的生育行为吗?——基于CGSS(2013)数据的分析

在第二次人口转变的背景下,大量研究发现欧美人群的人格特征与生育行为之间存在稳定的关联。为考察中国人的人格特征与生育行为之间的关系,本文利用2013年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)的数据,系统分析人格特征对结婚可能性、初婚年龄、生育可能性以及子女数量的影响。研究发现外向性、神经质和宜人性人格倾向对生育行为有正向的影响力,而尽责性和开放性人格倾向对生育行为有负向的影响力,其中神经质人格倾向和生育行为的关系模式与基于欧美人群的研究所发现的关系模式截然相反。人格特征与生育行为之间的关系模式具有高度的环境依赖性,中国人的生育行为所承载的意义可能远比欧美人群错综复杂,神经质人格倾向和生育行为之间的关系模式可能与我国的社会传统文化存在一定关系。从性别差异来看,外向性人格倾向对男性的结婚可能性、初婚年龄、生育可能性以及子女数量具有显著的影响,但是仅对女性的结婚可能性具有显著影响。传统上"男主外女主内"的观念仍然代表了目前主流社会的观点,这可能会降低女性外向性倾向在择偶或生育中的影响力。将人格因素引入生育行为影响因素的研究有利于更加深入全面地认识生育行为。在未来的研究中需进一步探索如何将人格特征转变为生育行为预测研究中的有效指标。     

央地支出责任划分对基本医疗卫生资源配置均等化的影响

1994分税制改革后，中央政府财政收入增加，地方政府支出责任增加，造成各级政府财力和支出责任不对应。基本医疗卫生资源配置均等会直接影响居民医疗服务的利用的均等化间接影响到居民的健康水平。本文利用《中国卫生统计年鉴》和《中国财政年鉴》中数据，使用基尼系数测度基本医疗卫生资源配置的均等化，利用分位数回归分析央地支出责任划分对基本医疗卫生资源配置均等化的影响，得出我国应该通过增加地方政府财政收入和减少地方政府支出责任特别是卫生支出责任的方式提高基本医疗卫生资源配置的均等化水平。     

子女数量对已婚女性劳动供给和工资的影响

本文利用中国健康与营养调查数据估计了子女数量对已婚女性劳动供给、工作时间投入和工资水平的影响,并通过采用工具变量法和赫克曼两步法(Heckman two-step)解决了回归分析中子女数量的内生性问题以及工作时间和工资方程中存在的样本选择问题,第一次全面考察了中国城镇和农村已婚女性生育率对其劳动供给行为和工资水平的因果效应。实证分析表明,生育子女数量的增加会显著降低城镇已婚女性的劳动供给,并且显著降低在业女性的工作时间投入和工资水平。生育子女数量的增加对农村已婚女性是否参与非农就业没有显著影响,对参与了非农就业女性的工资也没有显著影响,但是显著降低了其工作时间投入。     

从公平与平等的角度看我国女性就业

女性就业状况是衡量社会现代化发展水平的一个重要指标.尽管由于我国社会经济的快速发展,就业渠道多元化、行业的逐步拓宽为女性就业提供了新的领域,但是女性就业目前仍然存在着众多不尽如人意的地方,出现抱怨女性就业人数和比例下降,女性职业结构不合理,就业层次偏低等问题.     

流动男女对婚外性行为的容忍度及其影响因素

流动男女的婚外性问题备受政府与社会各界的关注,然而国内在婚外性行为容忍度的研究领域同时聚焦流动人口和性别差异的社会学实证研究还比较有限。本文使用全国综合社会调查数据实证分析流动男女的婚外性行为容忍度的影响因素及其性别差异。描述分析和整体样本的估计结果显示流动女性的婚外性行为容忍度高于流动男性。通过嵌套模型对比发现,大部分指标的影响都不存在特别显著的性别差异,个人年总收入、婚姻状况、流出地、流动时长以及工会参与程度等因素对流动男女的婚外性行为容忍度有促进作用,年龄、政治面貌、配偶是否同吃住、亲友联系密切程度等变量对流动男女的婚外性行为容忍度则有抑制作用。但是,受教育年限和子女数对流动男女的婚外性行为容忍度产生了截然不同的影响。受教育年限越长、子女数越多的流动女性的婚外性行为容忍度也越高,但二者对流动男性的婚外性行为容忍度的影响则并不显著。究其原因,一方面,对比流动男性,流动女性在自古以来的社会性教育和性规范中一直处于相对压抑的位置,因此教育对于流动女性的性观念转变存在更为明显的影响作用。另一方面,鉴于自身投入以及为子女成长提供一个和谐家庭环境等考虑,流动女性对婚外性行为现象更愿意持相对宽容的态度。     

生态压力人口研究——兼析中国人口与环境关系的地区差异

环境友好型社会是一种人与自然和谐共生的社会形态,其核心内涵是人类的生产和消费活动与自然生态系统协调并可持续发展。建设环境友好型社会是人类的目标。本文尝试构建生态压力人口模型,从人口学角度对人口与环境的关系进行定量分析,并比较中国各省区生态压力的现状。我们认为,在研究人口与环境关系时,要充分考虑生产方式和生活方式等社会因素的影响,而且有必要进一步思考发展的内涵以及人生的目的。我们期望在人口研究中纳入新的概念,以推动人口研究的发展。     

政府姿态如何影响流动人口居留意愿?

大规模的劳动力流动是中国经济发展的显著特征之一，也是实现中国工业化与城市化的重要推动力量。基于地方政府工作报告和中国流动人口动态监测调查数据，本文对地方政府工作报告关于流动人口的姿态进行度量，构建政府抑制姿态指标，考察了宏观地方政府政策文宣与微观流动人口居留意愿的关系。研究发现，政府对流动人口的抑制姿态会很大程度上降低流动人口的居留意愿，在运用工具变量法处理内生性问题后，结论依然稳健。此外，地方政府的这种抑制姿态会通过技能偏向、公平感知以及社会融入这三种机制对流动人口产生影响，进而影响其在本地的居留意愿。其中，低学历、农业户口的流动人口受到政府抑制姿态的负向影响，高学历、非农户口的流动人口受到的影响不显著；政府抑制姿态显著降低外地劳动力的公平感知度，而对本地劳动力有正向影响；社会融入度、社会参与度较低的流动人口受到政府抑制姿态的影响更强，有更弱的居留意愿。进一步分析发现，城市户籍门槛会削弱政府姿态对流动人口居留意愿的影响程度，落户门槛越高，流动人口居留意愿受到政府抑制姿态的影响越弱。不同性别、年龄的流动人口受到政府抑制姿态的影响也不同，男性、老年流动人口受到其影响更强。研究认为，地方政...     

女性独居老人自评生活满意度的影响因素分析

文章利用2002年中国高龄老人健康长寿状况调查数据,从中选取女性独居老人,运用因子分析和Logistic回归等方法分析讨论了影响女性独居老人生活满意度的因素。分析结果表明,在众多影响独居老年女性生活满意度的因素中,心理因素和经济因素的作用最直接。生理因素和人口因素对生活满意度的影响通过心理因素体现,而社会因素对生活满意度的影响在一定程度上与心理因素相关。     

提前退休模式与行为及其影响因素——基于中国综合社会调查数据的分析

文章基于2008年中国综合社会调查数据,对城镇人口提前退休模式与行为及其影响因素进行了分析。主要结论是:(1)提前退休模式与行为存在显著的性别差异,女性比男性距离法定退休年龄更近时退休,表现出较为明显的集聚特征,法定退休年龄对女性退休模式与行为的影响更大;(2)随着中国家庭子女数量的减少,劳动力市场灵活性的逐步增强,人们劳动参与意愿和可能性都会显著提升,提前退休的可能性越来越小,而且不断提高的受教育程度也会使女性提前退休的可能性减小;(3)中国的社会保障制度对男性提前退休有显著影响,对女性则不显著。与养老保险制度相比,医疗保险与失业保险制度对男性提前退休的影响更大,基本医疗保险制度的完善会增加提前退休的可能性,失业保险制度的完善更有可能增强男性的工作意愿,降低提前退休的可能性。     

Environmental Refugees

There are fast-growing numbers of people who can no longer gain a secure livelihood in their homelands because of drought, soil erosion, desertification, deforestation and other environmental problems. In their desperation, these environmental refugees—as they are increasingly coming to be known and as they are termed in this paper—feel they have no alternative but to seek sanctuary elsewhere, however hazardous the attempt. Not all of them have fled their countries, many being internally displaced. But all have abandoned their homelands on a semi-permanent if not permanent basis, having little hope of a foreseeable return.     

Environmental Refugees? Classifying Human Migrations Caused by Environmental Change

What distinguishes environmental refugees from other refugees—or other migrants? Are all environmental refugees alike? This essay develops a classification to begin to answer these questions and facilitate future policies and research on environmental refugees. Environmental refugees may have considerable control over the decision to migrate, but this varies by the type of environmental disruption. The origin, intention, and duration of environmental disruptions shape the type of refugee. Refugees from disasters and expropriations have limited control over whether environmental changes will produce migration. Gradual degradation allows “environmental emigrants” to determine how they will respond to environmental change.     

Migration and Environmental Hazards

Losses due to natural hazards (e.g., earthquakes, hurricanes) and technological hazards (e.g., nuclear waste facilities, chemical spills) are both on the rise. One response to hazard-related losses is migration, with this paper offering a review of research examining the association between migration and environmental hazards. Using examples from both developed and developing regional contexts, the overview demonstrates that the association between migration and environmental hazards varies by setting, hazard types, and household characteristics. In many cases, however, results demonstrate that environmental factors play a role in shaping migration decisions, particularly among those most vulnerable. Research also suggests that risk perception acts as a mediating factor. Classic migration theory is reviewed to offer a foundation for examination of these associations.     

环境激素与生殖健康

环境激素问题已成为全球关注的问题。本文主要论述了环境激素的来源、对生物生殖健康的影响及作用机制、防治等。     

Personal Possessions and Environmental Control:

Possessions allow individuals to experience control over their environment and may therefore act as a buffer for people when they are experiencing loss of control in other areas of their lives, for example, as a result of institutionalization. The present study explored the relationship between possessions and perceived control for elderly women in (a) their own home, (b) a residential unit, and (c) a rest home. Ten women in each residential setting were interviewed about the meaning and value of their possessions. Qualitative analysis revealed six themes relating to control over the environment (control over use by self, control over use by others, control over active acquisition of possessions, control over passive acquisition of possessions, control over surroundings, control over distribution of possessions). The responses of the three groups of women for each of these themes are compared and discussed.     

Environmental Conditions and Governmental Fiscal Policy

Social Indicators Research - The purpose of this paper is to review and analyze the Korean government's financial policy regarding the environment and its resulting effects on domestic...     

Prediction of Human Development from Environmental Indicators

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) list the objectives and targets that should be addressed to solve the global issues regarding sustainable development. They encompass the social, economic and environmental dimensions and search for solutions that are able not only to monitor but also to control the operational indicators attributed to each objective. It is expected that many of these indicators are associated to each other and the accurate understanding of these correlations allows to build predictive statistical models that can improve the monitoring and controlling of variables. It would increase the rate of success in achieving the SDG. This study tested a linear multivariate model able to predict the human development index based on environmental variables which are related to SDG 3 (health), 4 (education), 8 (sustainable economic growth and decent work) and 15 (protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems). We fitted the models using the Linear Discriminant Analysis and Best Subset Selection applied to a Linear Multivariate Regression. The model predictive ability was assessed by R² and cross-validation (CV). The results showed that exposure to unsafe sanitation, access to drinking water, tree cover loss, unsafe water quality, wastewater treatment level, and household air pollution are excellent predictors of human development index of a population, with R² = 0.94 and 10-fold CV Mean Squared Error equal to 0.0014. This tool can help stakeholders to monitor and control indicators attributed to good health and well-being, quality education, clean water and sanitation, decent work and economic growth, sustainable cities and communities and life on land sustainable development goals.     

Environmental defensive expenditures,expectations and growth

Nowadays many agents meet defensive expenditures to protect themselves against environmental deterioration. Such expenditures may contribute to support economic growth. Environmental degradation, in fact, may induce agents to work harder to replace depleted environmental goods with substitute goods. The consequent rise in the activity level may further deplete the environment, worsening the agents’ expectations on the future environmental quality and increasing their demand for substitute goods. To examine this issue, we adopt a simple model in which agents formulate expectations on the future environment that can be right or wrong and examine how such expectations influence capital accumulation and growth.

Environmental Hazards,Migration, and Race

This study contributes to our understanding of the association between internal migration patterns and environmentally hazardous facilities, with a focus upon race-specific outmigration at the county-level, nationwide. Among research suggesting inequalities with regard to the social distribution of environmental risk, selective migration is often implied to be a key dynamic leading to differential exposure to proximate environmental hazards. Nonetheless, the models presented here provide no evidence of differential migratory response by race to environmentally hazardous facilities, net of a wide array of socioeconomic controls for labor force opportunity, climate, and demographic structure. Future research should consider these associations at more precise geographies and/or at the individual level.     

资源环境约束下的中国适度人口研究

资源环境约束下的适度人口,既能够符合资源环境的约束条件,同时又能达到一定生活水准和发展目标,它是制定中国未来人口政策的重要依据.文章采用可能-满意度模型(P-S法),基于资源环境约束下的适度人口概念及其内在机制分析,提取自然资源、环境因素、社会经济因素三方面中的12个指标,以2030年和2050年为目标时间点,分别计算单个因子和多种方案下对应的适度人口规模.结果表明:在各种主要资源环境约束下,若我国2030年的人口规模介于11.57～13.22亿人之间,2050年介于14.65 ～16.26亿人之间,则可以实现最低的临界适度目标;若2030年和2050年总人口能分别达到9.86 ～11.11亿人和11.88～13.89亿人,则可以实现理想的适度人口目标.未来制约我国人口增长的最主要因素始终是水资源;2030年之前我国人口资源环境关系进一步趋紧,之后直到2050年后将趋于好转.