Blinded continuous monitoring in clinical trials with recurrent event endpoints

In studies with recurrent event endpoints, misspecified assumptions of event rates or dispersion can lead to underpowered trials or overexposure of patients. Specification of overdispersion is often a particular problem as it is usually not reported in clinical trial publications. Changing event rates over the years have been described for some diseases, adding to the uncertainty in planning. To mitigate the risks of inadequate sample sizes, internal pilot study designs have been proposed with a preference for blinded sample size reestimation procedures, as they generally do not affect the type I error rate and maintain trial integrity. Blinded sample size reestimation procedures are available for trials with recurrent events as endpoints. However, the variance in the reestimated sample size can be considerable in particular with early sample size reviews. Motivated by a randomized controlled trial in paediatric multiple sclerosis, a rare neurological condition in children, we apply the concept of blinded continuous monitoring of information, which is known to reduce the variance in the resulting sample size. Assuming negative binomial distributions for the counts of recurrent relapses, we derive information criteria and propose blinded continuous monitoring procedures. The operating characteristics of these are assessed in Monte Carlo trial simulations demonstrating favourable properties with regard to type I error rate, power, and stopping time, ie, sample size.     

为合法经营活动而侵犯公民个人信息的刑法规制

最高人民法院、最高人民检察院《关于办理侵犯公民个人信息刑事案件适用法律若干问题的解释》第六条对为合法经营活动而侵犯公民个人信息行为进行独立规制,是新型犯罪罪状表述抽象化与罪状解释具体化、信息时代信息价值多元化与危害行为多样化、现代社会犯罪治理精细化与刑法评价精准化的内在要求.为合法经营活动而侵犯公民个人信息行为相关规范要素中的“为合法经营活动”应理解为主观超过要素,“获利五万元”应作严格解释,“曾因侵犯公民个人信息”应作广义解释,“其他情节严重”应包括信息数量标准.     

Price bias and common practice in option pricing

Generally, the semiclosed-form option pricing formula for complex financial models depends on unobservable factors such as stochastic volatility and jump intensity. A popular practice is to use an estimate of these latent factors to compute the option price. However, in many situations this plug-and-play approximation does not yield the appropriate price. This article examines this bias and quantifies its impacts. We decompose the bias into terms that are related to the bias on the unobservable factors and to the precision of their point estimators. The approximated price is found to be highly biased when only the history of the stock price is used to recover the latent states. This bias is corrected when option prices are added to the sample used to recover the states' best estimate. We also show numerically that such a bias is propagated on calibrated parameters, leading to erroneous values. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 8–35; 2020 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

State work and the testing concours of citizenship

Anyone trying to be a citizen has to pass through a set of practices trying to be a state. This paper investigates some of the ways testing practices calibrate citizens, and in doing so, perform “the state.” The paper focuses on three forms of citizenship testing, which it considers exemplary forms of “state work,” and which all, in various ways, concern “migration.” First, the constitution of a “border crossing,” which requires an identity test configured by deceptibility. Second, the Dutch asylum process, in which “being gay” can, in certain cases, be reason for being granted asylum, but where “being gay” is also the outcome of an examination organized by suspicion. And third, the Dutch measurement of immigrants’ “integration,” which is comprised of a testing process in which such factishes as “being a member of society” and “being modern” surface. Citizenship is analyzed in this paper as accrued and (re)configured along a migration trajectory that takes shape as a testing concours, meaning that subjects become citizens along a trajectory of testing practices. In contributing both to work on states and citizenship, and to work on testing, this paper thus puts forward the concept of citizenship testing as state work, where “state work is the term for that kind of labor that most knows itself as comparison, equivalency, and exchange in the social realm” (Harney, 2002, pp. 10–11). Throughout the testing practices discussed here, comparison, equivalency, and exchange figure prominently as the practical achievements of crafting states and citizens.     

Subjective utility with upper and lower probabilities on finite states

This article is concerned with thresholds of discrimination of preference judgments under uncertainty. We establish an axiomatic characterization for a threshold representation, where thresholds are represented by inexact measurement of subjective probabilities, i.e., upper and lower probabilities. Since upper and lower probabilities need not be additive, the representational form adopts the Choquet integration.     

集中优势发展重庆电子信息产业

在分析重庆市电子信息设备制造业现状、发展的有利与不利因素以及国内外发展态势的基础上对重庆(?)子信息产业的发展提出了九条对策建议。     

虚拟空间交织的取向原则

虚拟空间交织是人们常用的思维与认知方式之一。本文通过对交织及其原则的介绍,描述了虚拟空间交织的运作,指出虚拟空间交织构建中主观取向的原则应为最佳关联。     

试论近中国茶馆的社会功能

在近代中国 ,茶馆与民众生活紧密相连 ,并承担着广泛而又复杂的社会功能。茶馆与民众的经济生活相关联 ,也是民间纠纷调解的重要场所。同时 ,作为一个公众活动的场所 ,茶馆也是民间社会信息传播的集散地 ;民众在茶馆中表达自己的见解 ,也使得茶馆成为一种控制舆论的力量。茶馆的这些功能是近代民间社会内在运作逻辑的体现。     

时装画与服装文化

时装画是为了服装的设计、制作和推介而创作的具有审美价值的绘画样式。时装画对于服装文化的发展具有推动作用 ,探讨和研究时装画产生、发展的历史和现状 ,对于发展中国的服装文化 ,具有重要的意义。     

数字时代的挑战与教育情报的对策

分析了数字时代的信息特点以及给教育情报领域带来的挑战 ,提出了教育情报面对现实应采取的对策。旨在从某个侧面强化教育信息资源建设的整合度。