Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

People with disability and new disaster communications: access and the social media mash-up

This article explores how a lack of access to increasingly complex and overlapping digital communications platforms in times of disaster for people with disabilities has the potential to make already life-threatening situations considerably more dangerous. As we are increasingly coming to rely on a social media mash-up of digital platforms to assist in communications during disaster situations, the issue of accessibility for people with disabilities is as dire as if it was high ground during a tsunami or transport during a typhoon. The contemporary social media environment is characterised by a complex and overlapping network of complementary platforms, populated by user-generated content, where people communicate and exchange ideas. In this environment, YouTube videos are posted to Facebook and embedded in blogs, and Twitter is used to link to these other sites and is itself embedded in other platforms. These networks are increasingly supplementing and supplanting more traditional communication platforms, such as the television and radio, particularly in times of disaster. The concern of this paper is that the elements from which this mash-up of communications channels is made are not always accessible to people with disabilities. This evolving network of social media-based communication exposes the limits of existing Internet-based universal design.     

Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment

Previous research has evaluated public risk perception and response to a natural hazards in various settings; however, most of these studies were conducted either with a single scenario or after a natural disaster struck. To better understand the dynamic relationships among affect, risk perception, and behavioral intentions related to natural disasters, the current study implements a simulation scenario with escalating weather intensity, and includes a natural experiment allowing comparison of public response before and after a severe tornado event with extensive coverage by the national media. The current study also manipulated the display of warning information, and investigated whether the warning system display format influences public response. Results indicate that (1) affect, risk perception, and behavioral intention escalated as weather conditions deteriorated, (2) responses at previous stages predicted responses at subsequent stages of storm progression, and (3) negative affect predicted risk perception. Moreover, risk perception and behavioral intention were heightened after exposure to the media coverage of an actual tornado disaster. However, the display format manipulation did not influence behavioral responses. The current study provides insight regarding public perception of predisaster warnings and the influence of exposure to media coverage of an actual disaster event.     

形、神、韵-汉魏唐宋山水诗画艺术自然审美走向

自然美是人化自然的结果,山水诗画艺术是主体自然美感经验的物化形态。从六朝到宋代的山水诗画艺术,大致经历了从写形、传神、达意的转变过程,同时又折射出人们对自然美的认识的嬗变轨迹     

论美国宪法政治形成发展的基础

美国宪法政治形成和发展的原因 ,在于有英国立宪政治的深厚文化与思想做基础 ,在于社会各群体有在法治状态下生活的习惯和传统。济济的法律人才在国家政治制度的设计上起了主导作用 ;社会经济制度为美国的宪法政治确立与发展奠定了坚固的基础 ;国家不豢养和保存大规模的常备军 ,人民的代议机关能牢牢控制国家武装力量 ,尤其能控制国家武装力量的经济命脉。另外 ,北美独立运动不是一场专制王权与民主力量之间的冲突与斗争 ,而是一场殖民地力量壮大以后争取分离的运动     

构建立足“3R”的矿难治理预防管理体系

对劳动力载体的保护是劳动和社会保障的指向之一。面对矿难对劳动者生存权的侵蚀,加强矿难治理的准备工作,就成了生命对社会的合理诉求。这其中对劳动者生存权的尊重,也是构建和谐社会的应有之义。     

洛克论宗教宽容

洛克的《论宗教宽容》,是现代西方处理宗教冲突的基本理论依据。但新近发现的文献表明,洛克早年是反对宗教宽容的。本文将洛克对宗教宽容的几次讨论放在十六十七世纪英国宗教冲突的政治背景之下,指出洛克前后期虽然主张不同,但都遵循同样的理论基础,即《第二篇政府短论》中提出的"神法—人法—兄弟法—私人法"的法律结构,只是针对英国现实问题,在这一框架当中适当调整。无论他主张宗教宽容还是不宽容,目的都是为了清除天主教在英国政治中的势力,围绕圣公会建立一个独立的民族国家。他晚年与普洛斯特有过多次争论,但所涉及的并不是原则性的分歧。我们今天思考宗教冲突与宽容问题,应该看到洛克宗教宽容思想的理论基础。     

配制可燃气体的计算及燃气配制时的安全问题

在配制可燃气体时的相对条件,以及几点要求.在条件允许情况下的安全问题等.     

袁宏道文学思想再认识

明中叶以后 ,以公安三袁为主力的公安派高举“性灵”大旗 ,开创了与“复古”论调大相径庭的一代风气 ,影响甚大。而公安三袁中尤以袁宏道为重 ,袁宏道的文学思想表现在三个方面 :一、识时通变的文学发展观 ;二、“独抒性灵”的创作主张 ;三、“本色轻淡”的艺术趣味。     

朱之锡治河

清初河患异常严重,清承明制设立河道总督。朱之锡是清代第二任河道总督,他在任期间提出了具体的治河措施并加以实施,使河患得以减轻。朱之锡为治河鞠躬尽瘁,病死于任上,因此,深受沿河百姓爱戴,死后被沿河百姓称为河神。