局部平稳部分线性面板数据模型的统计推断

部分线性模型是一类非常重要的半参数回归模型,由于它既含有参数部分又含有非参数部分,与常规的线性模型相比具有更强的适应性和解释能力。文章研究带有局部平稳协变量的固定效应部分线性面板数据模型的统计推断。首先提出一个两阶段估计方法得到模型中未知参数和非参数函数的估计,并证明估计量的渐近性质,然后运用不变原理构造出非参数函数的一致置信带,最后通过数值模拟研究和实例分析验证了该方法的有效性。     

人民币汇率失衡及贸易壁垒对我国出口行业影响异质性研究

贸易摩擦、新冠疫情使我国经济贸易面临严峻挑战,人民币汇率波动及贸易壁垒将常态化地影响我国出口贸易.在加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局背景下,文章基于HS分类原则,选取WTO等机构的贸易数据,通过构建BEER模型测算了人民币汇率失衡程度;通过建立固定效应面板模型研究了人民币汇率失衡及贸易壁垒双因素对我国出口行业影响的异质性.研究表明:人民币汇率失衡对我国出口贸易整体上具有显著负向影响,非关税壁垒对我国出口贸易整体上具有显著正向影响;关税和非关税构成的贸易壁垒与人民币汇率失衡双因素对我国出口贸易具有显著抑制作用,并对不同出口行业的影响存在异质性;人民币汇率失衡与非关税壁垒双因素对大多行业均具有显著负向影响,人民币汇率失衡与关税壁垒双因素对不同行业影响的正负效应及程度大小有异质性.因此,建议通过运行逆周期因子等完善人民币汇率自我修正机制;通过引导出口企业了解使用外汇衍生品等促进外汇衍生品市场运行机制的健全;通过加强"海外仓"建设及深耕RCEP框架下的东盟十国市场等实施出口行业差异化贸易策略;通过提升自主科技创新能力等加快出口行业产业转型升级,推动双循环,实现我国出口贸易高质量发展.     

劳动力转移对城乡居民收入差距的非线性影响研究

借鉴已有相关研究成果,将劳动力转移、农业技术水平与城乡居民收入差距联系起来思考,可以具体地考察劳动力转移对城乡居民收入差距的影响.文章以农业技术水平作为门槛变量,选取2009—2019年中国31个省份的面板数据,利用泰尔指数测定城乡收入差距,以劳动力转移作为核心解释变量构建面板门槛模型,实证得出劳动力转移对城乡居民收入差距的非线性影响.研究发现:劳动力转移可以缩小城乡居民收入差距,且该影响具有单一门槛效应.在农业技术水平较低时,劳动力转移对城乡居民收入差距收敛效应较小;当农业技术水平越过门槛值达到较高水平后,劳动力转移对缩小城乡居民收入差距的效果几乎增加了一倍.此后,通过替换解释变量泰尔指数为城乡人均可支配收入比、替换核心解释变量农业技术水平为农业生产效率重新建立面板门槛模型,发现上述结论仍然成立,其检验结果具有较强的稳健性.文章将农业技术进步、劳动力转移、城乡居民收入差距这三个重要变量纳入同一模型框架中,在加深劳动力流动影响城乡居民收入差距这一视角的研究的同时,对缩小城乡居民收入差距政策的制定提供了重要的参考意义.     

“一带一路”沿线国家设施联通对贸易利益的影响

以全球价值链（GVC）参与为视角，基于2005—2015年40个“一带一路”沿线国家与我国的增加值贸易数据，采用静态面板固定效应模型实证分析交通基础设施和通信基础设施对“一带一路”沿线国家贸易利益的影响。结果发现，加强交通和通信基础设施建设有利于提高一国出口中所包含的国内增加值，增进该国的贸易利益。作用机制研究表明，交通基础设施和通信基础设施都能够通过降低贸易成本促进贸易利益的提升，其中通信基础设施还能够通过提高贸易的时间效率对贸易利益产生积极影响。因此，“一带一路”沿线国家应以设施联通为依托，加强本国的交通和通信基础设施建设，把握参与国际生产分工的主动权，以实现共同发展繁荣。     

A Graphical Tool for Interpreting Regression Coefficients of Trinomial Logit Models

Multinomial logit (also termed multi-logit) models permit the analysis of the statistical relation between a categorical response variable and a set of explicative variables (called covariates or regressors). Although multinomial logit is widely used in both the social and economic sciences, the interpretation of regression coefficients may be tricky, as the effect of covariates on the probability distribution of the response variable is nonconstant and difficult to quantify. The ternary plots illustrated in this article aim at facilitating the interpretation of regression coefficients and permit the effect of covariates (either singularly or jointly considered) on the probability distribution of the dependent variable to be quantified. Ternary plots can be drawn both for ordered and for unordered categorical dependent variables, when the number of possible outcomes equals three (trinomial response variable); these plots allow not only to represent the covariate effects over the whole parameter space of the dependent variable but also to compare the covariate effects of any given individual profile. The method is illustrated and discussed through analysis of a dataset concerning the transition of master’s graduates of the University of Trento (Italy) from university to employment.     

The Eurasian Economic Union: Development Prospects and Possible Obstacles

This article analyzes the development prospects and problems for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). It examines issues of integration within the EAEU, as well as interactions with other countries, both CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) and non-CIS. The main problem of integration within the EAEU is the dominance of redistributive motives over productive ones. This article assesses the extent of Russian oil and gas transfers to EAEU partners and the impact of tax maneuvers on their size. It shows that the creation of mechanisms for redistributing profits within the EAEU will allow a positive economic effect to materialize from free trade agreements with non-CIS countries. The article assesses the risks for the EAEU related to Russia’s introduction of a unilateral ban on food imports from countries on the sanctions list and to the possible establishment of tariffs on trade with Ukraine.     

Language roulette – the effect of random placement on refugees’ labour market integration

Placement of refugees and subsequent labour market integration within a host country represents a key challenge for policymakers and has emerged as one of the most divisive topics in the public debate. Immigration policy in Switzerland adopts random placement of asylum seekers across its different language regions. Hence, this policy allows to estimate the causal effect of language skills on employment chances, as refugees are exogenously placed across regions where the spoken language could either match or deviate from individual language skills. The results of this ‘natural experiment’ indicate substantially higher probabilities of finding employment when asylum seekers are placed in regions with a lingua franca that matches their individual language skills. Additionally, the findings suggest that language course participation can offset the reduced likelihood of employment in cases of a language mismatch. While random placement of refugees may be desirable for political reasons, it is detrimental to the economic integration process. Thereby, the study draws relevant conclusions for a larger European immigration policy.     

消费者网评使用习惯对网评效应的影响研究---网评奖励效果的中介和调节效应探索*

本文以网购旅游者为调查对象，分析其网评使用习惯及其在网评奖励效果作用下对网络评论效用发挥的影响。通过问卷调查和数据分析发现，网评使用习惯和网评奖励效果都对网评效应具有显著正向影响，但网评使用习惯的影响力大于网评奖励效果。同时，网评奖励效果对网评使用习惯与网评效应间的关系具有显著负向调节效应，它削弱了消费者网评使用习惯对网评效应的影响；但消费者的网评使用习惯不通过网站的网评奖励效果对网评效应发挥作用，网评奖励效果不具有中介作用。可见，在网评使用习惯、网评奖励效果和网评效应三者关系中，网评使用习惯是个独立的影响因素，它并不通过网评奖励效果发挥作用，并且由于网评奖励效果的加入，反而削弱了网评使用习惯对网评效应的影响。研究结论表明，对于网评奖励政策的效果，需要客观辩证地看待，不应一味夸大。     

经贸英语在中国加入WTO后的新趋势

经贸英语对我国的经济和对外贸易业务起了相当重要的作用。中国加入WTO后和在西部大开发的进程中,同世界各国的外贸业务更加频繁,国际贸易业务知识已渗入日常的商务活动之中,外贸活动对英语能力的要求必将刺激经贸荚语的进一步发展和普及。外贸函电中电子商务的普遍应用,商务活动中的信息高速公路,电脑购物、电子货币和智能卡等,使得经贸英语出现许多新的特点和新的优势。本文对这些特点和优势进行了探讨。     

常德市旅游、商贸宣传品的英译探讨

要达到对外宣传预期的目的 ,旅游、商贸对外宣传品的翻译必须正确、得体、一致。实例表明 ,常德市旅游、商贸对外宣传品的翻译在这些方面普遍存在问题。因此 ,要提高翻译质量 ,除管理者高度重视外 ,译者要加强英、汉语功底的修养 ,培养敬业精神