土耳其在阿富汗重建进程中的作用和影响探析

2001年美国主导的阿富汗战争取得阶段性胜利之后,阿富汗的重建工作就被提到了议事日程之上。作为北约成员国,土耳其凭借与阿富汗传统的亲密关系、相同的宗教信仰以及同时拥有阿富汗和巴基斯坦的好感等优势,积极参与阿国重建并发挥了有效作用。当然,在这一过程中土耳其也面临着自身经济实力限制、国内安全隐患牵制以及其它地区强国挑战等困难,但是未来积极参与阿富汗重建进程的态度和政策不会发生大的改变。     

Sample Selection and Treatment Effect Estimation of Lender of Last Resort Policies

This article develops a framework for estimating multivariate treatment effect models in the presence of sample selection. The methodology deals with several important issues prevalent in policy and program evaluation, including application and approval stages, nonrandom treatment assignment, endogeneity, and discrete outcomes. This article presents a computationally efficient estimation algorithm and techniques for model comparison and treatment effects. The framework is applied to evaluate the effectiveness of bank recapitalization programs and their ability to resuscitate the financial system. The analysis of lender of last resort (LOLR) policies is not only complicated due to econometric challenges, but also because regulator data are not easily obtainable. Motivated by these difficulties, this article constructs a novel bank-level dataset and employs the new methodology to jointly model a bank’s decision to apply for assistance, the LOLR’s decision to approve or decline the assistance, and the bank’s performance following the disbursements. The article offers practical estimation tools to unveil new answers to important regulatory and policy questions.     

叙事治疗理论及其在婚姻关系调适中的运用

以叙事隐喻和社会建构隐喻为理论支撑,文章分析了婚姻问题的社会建构和个人内化的机理;借助于“外化问题”和“寻找独特结果”的实践技术在具体案例中的运用,解构了婚姻当事人受宰制的主流性别叙事并重构丰富的自我成长故事。本文认为,叙事疗法能够有效地应对高稳定低质量的中国婚姻状况,有利于国民婚姻观念的时代转型和婚姻品质的提升,     

灾后农村社区建设中村民社区参与现状与模式研究——以北川县擂鼓镇灾后重建为例

灾后农村社区建设中的村民社区参与关系灾后重建的质量与效果,但现实的参与状况并不理想：灾后农村社区建设中村民参与存在参与内容少、积极性不高、效果不佳,“公参与”同“私参与”边界模糊,村民参与形式与模式单一等突出问题。对这些问题的审视,有利于更好地引导农村灾后重建以及我国以社区理念为指导的新农村社区建设实践。     

对经过重建和调整后的我国婴儿死亡率的验证

本文根据婴儿死亡率随人均GDP的动态变化规律筛选最佳验证模型,验证了时间序列模型重新构建的1952－1980年婴儿死亡率和调整校正的1981－1990年婴儿死亡率。结果表明幂函数形式为相对较好的验证模型,拟合精度稍逊于时间序列预测模型,验证模型与时间序列模型的预测结果与历史婴儿死亡率比较,变异程度无显著差异,且预测结果与建立国家儿童死亡监测网络后的国家监测地区婴儿死亡率形成了平稳性过渡。文章认为以时间序列模型重新构建和调整校正的婴儿死亡率比较可靠,更加接近当时的实际水平。     

后现代主义视角下的当代奇卡诺文学

奇卡诺文学叙述中后现代主义手法应用比较普遍,复调叙述、"碎片式"叙述、虚构性自传和书信体等语言和叙述手段被广泛运用。基于这些创作手法构建的族裔文学构成了主流文化文学之外一种书写形式,既解构了宏观叙事的叙述权威,同时也以文化杂糅为基础重构新的墨美身份。     

权力与体制的冲突：《临时约法》时期袁世凯权威重建的困境

当受益于民主政权失败的＂负面合法性＂的袁世凯担任国家元首已成定局时,出于对袁世凯个人政治品质的不信任及为了重新获得全国的统治权,国民党通过《临时约法》构建了一种＂总统的表面特权＂（尊严）与＂内阁总理的实际权力＂（效率）并存的二元体系。由此,权力与体制的冲突构成了民初共和宪政的内在矛盾,在这一矛盾和冲突中,袁世凯曾拥有的政治资源处于不断流失的状态,其权威重建的政治困境由此产生。     

理论方案、组织实践与未来趋势——儒教重建十年扫描

作为当代文化建设中的重要议题,儒教重建在新世纪得以突显。在理论上,存在儒教复兴说、儒教重建说、儒家文化保护区说、公民宗教说、体制化儒教说五种方案。在实践上,存在儒教组织、儒教网站两种类型。寻找理论共识和努力实践是儒教发展的未来趋势。     

Seeking urban sustainability on the world stage

Nearly any introduction to the ideas and actions of sustainable development includes a mention of the role played in launching the global movement by the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. International forums have been a major vehicle for the pursuit of sustainability subsequent to 1992, as well, but little attention has been paid to the contribution that these global gatherings have made to the advancement of sustainability goals. This article takes up this question, with a focus on the role that major global gatherings may be playing in the pursuit of urban sustainability, specifically. To this end, we examine outcomes from the United Nations Habitat II Forum (1996, Istanbul), the World Summit on Sustainable Development (2002, Johannesburg), the World Social Forum (2001–present, Porto Alegre), and the World Urban Forum 3 (2006, Vancouver), based on reports in the scholarly literature and, in the latter case, based on our own experience as urbanists in the host city of the World Urban Forum 3. For comparative purposes, we include in our review reflections on the contribution made by a United Nations effort towards sustainability, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), made without an accompanying major global gathering. While we do not find evidence of ‘Rio-scale’ success among either the forums or in the case of the MDGs, we report on process and structural innovations made with each forum as well as common critiques of all of them. A primary contribution that all the forums have made to the advancement of urban sustainability has been more clearly differentiating among sustainability's very different types of proponents and charting the landscape of barriers and opportunities for paradigm change towards sustainable urban futures.     

中国转型期诚信的失落和重建

诚信的品质在古今中外备受尊重，诚信的基本含义就是诚实守信。诚信不仅具有伦理意蕴，而且具有经济意蕴。诚信是市场经济体制健康运行的内在机制，也是作为市场主体的企业赖以生存发展的社会资本。当代转型期的中国遭遇诚信失落，重建一种能够与社会主义市场经济体制相适应的中国现代的诚信是一个重大课题。