Establishing dominance between strategies with interval judgments of state probabilities

In decision-making under uncertainty, a decision-maker is required to specify, possibly with the help of decision analysts, point estimates of the probabilities of uncertain events. In this setting, it is often difficult to obtain very precise measurements of the decision-maker׳s probabilities on the states of nature particularly when little information is available to evaluate probabilities, available information is not specific enough, or we have to model the conflict case where several information sources are available.In this paper, imprecise probabilities are considered for representing the decision-maker׳s perception or past experience about the states of nature, to be specific, interval probabilities, which can be further categorized as (a) intervals of individual probabilities, (b) intervals of probability differences, and (c) intervals of ratio probabilities. We present a heuristic approach to modeling a wider range of types of probabilities as well as three types of interval probabilities. In particular, the intervals of ratio probabilities, which are widely used in the uncertain AHP context, are analyzed to find extreme points by the use of change of variables, not to mention the first two types of interval probabilities. Finally, we examine how these extreme points can be used to determine an ordering or partial ordering of the expected values of strategies.     

论网络时代中国新闻传播业的生态变迁

网络媒体的物质特性、传播特性决定了网络媒体产生后的中国新闻传播业必然发生深刻的生态变迁 ,传统新闻传播学话语被改写甚至被置换。这主要体现在新闻传播者主体席位增加与“受众”的消解 ,“线性模式”崩溃与“控制研究”式微 ,新闻传播媒体自身形态和外部环境的变化等。     

Change-of-variance problem for linear processes with long memory

In this paper we investigate the asymptotic properties of the test statistics for detecting change-points in the variance of infinite moving average sequences with long memory. This research is partly supported by NSFC Grants and SRF for ROCS, SEM.     

浅谈专业课的教学

专业课教学中的趣味性及授课方式的巧妙性,能激发学生的学习兴趣,营造轻松、愉快的学习氛围。     

缩略形式的选取单位及其分析

缩略是一种语言形式的变化,它从原词语中选用部分形式组成一个新形式表示与原词语相同的意思。在缩略过程中,选取的形式有的有单独表意能力,有的没有,这表明,缩略过程中选择的是形式片段而不语义单位。     

浅谈知识经济时代的人力资源会计

二十一世纪“知识经济”的发展将成为主流,人力资源价值呈不断上升趋势,企业间竞争明显加剧,突出地表现在市场、技术和人才的竞争上,人力资源作为核心资源和提升企业竞争优势的首要资源,其受国际化的影响当然也是不可避免和极其深刻的。因此,科学的确认、计量、报告人力资本,对于有效利用人力资源,合理开发人力资源以适应经济的发展具有极为重要的意义。     

On the use of quasi-likelihood for estimation in hidden-Markov random fields

This paper illustrates the use of quasi-likelihood methods of inference for hidden Markov random fields. These are simple to use and can be employed under circumstances where only the model form and its covariance structure are specified. In particular they can be used to derive the same estimating equations as the E-M algorithm or change of measure methods, which make full distributional assumptions.     

基于股利变更公告的股利信号效应研究

本文根据上市公司发布的股利变更公告,提供了一个比之前文献利用年报研究股利市场反应更为干净的方法,研究上市公司股利发放的市场反应。本文进一步研究了各种股利发放变动与公司现金流、盈余之间的关系,从而对上市公司股利政策的信号传递效应进行检验。结果发现,我国上市公司的现金股利发放并没有信号传递效应;股票股利发放只是传递了关于公司当期净利润的信息,并没有传递关于公司未来盈余的信息。具体来说,市场对现金股利变更的反应不及对股票股利变更的反应敏感;同时发现,现金股利的变更与公司现金流、盈余之间并没有显著关系,而股票股利的变更则参考了当期净利润的表现。     

吉林城的兴建与东北亚局势的发展

吉林城建成于康熙十二年(1673年),它是当时东北亚地区的一个重要都市,在历史上发挥了巨大作用。吉林城的兴建是东北亚局势发展的必然趋势,是多种因素共同作用的结果。首先它是为了加强对东北地区的管理而兴建的;其次是为了适应军事战略发展的需要而兴建的。社会经济发展、人口迅速增长等因素则是兴建吉林城的有利条件。     

数字时代中广告插画艺术的变革

人类进入数字时代后,先进的计算机技术不仅克服了文字数字化的难题,而且征服了比文字更复杂的声音、图像世界。主流与非主流插画开始应用到生活的各个方面,涉及到装修、时装、数码产品、互动媒体、电影、广告等等领域。面对正日益缩小的传统插画传播媒介间的差距,传统的传播者与受众之间的相互关系正面临巨大的变革。