中国交通运输业发展的实证研究

采用协整和误差纠正模型与方法，对中国改革开放20多年来交通运输发展与一些相关影响因素之间的关系进行实证研究。结果表明：旅客运输需求与国民收入、乘车费用之间，货物运输与国民经济、燃油价格之间分别存在长期稳定关系。研究认为：中国交通的发展应适当超前于国民经济的发展。同时，研究还发现：“旅游黄金周”的实施并不是促进中国旅客运输需求的显著影响因素。     

Bayesian updating of atmospheric dispersion after a nuclear accident

Summary.  We consider a Bayesian forecasting system to predict the dispersal of contamination on a large scale grid in the event of an accidental release of radioactivity. The statistical model is built on a physical model for atmospheric dispersion and transport called MATCH. Our spatiotemporal model is a dynamic linear model where the state parameters are the (essentially, deterministic) predictions of MATCH; the distributions of these are updated sequentially in the light of monitoring data. One of the distinguishing features of the model is that the number of these parameters is very large (typically several hundreds of thousands) and we discuss practical issues arising in its implementation as a realtime model. Our procedures have been checked against a variational approach which is used widely in the atmospheric sciences. The results of the model are applied to test data from a tracer experiment.     

Temporal pattern in number of staff on sick leave: the effect of downsizing

Summary.  The pattern of absenteeism in the downsizing process of companies is a topic in focus in economics and social science. A general question is whether employees who are frequently absent are more likely to be selected to be laid off or in contrast whether employees to be dismissed are more likely to be absent for the remaining time of their working contract. We pursue an empirical and microeconomic investigation of these theses. We analyse longitudinal data that were collected in a German company over several years. We fit a semiparametric transition model based on a mixture Poisson distribution for the days of absenteeism per month. Prediction intervals are considered and the primary focus is on the period of downsizing. The data reveal clear evidence for the hypothesis that employees who are to be laid off are more frequently absent before leaving the company. Interestingly, though, no clear evidence is seen that employees being selected to leave the company are those with a bad absenteeism profile.     

Causal inference with generalized structural mean models

Summary.  We estimate cause–effect relationships in empirical research where exposures are not completely controlled, as in observational studies or with patient non-compliance and self-selected treatment switches in randomized clinical trials. Additive and multiplicative structural mean models have proved useful for this but suffer from the classical limitations of linear and log-linear models when accommodating binary data. We propose the generalized structural mean model to overcome these limitations. This is a semiparametric two-stage model which extends the structural mean model to handle non-linear average exposure effects. The first-stage structural model describes the causal effect of received exposure by contrasting the means of observed and potential exposure-free outcomes in exposed subsets of the population. For identification of the structural parameters, a second stage 'nuisance' model is introduced. This takes the form of a classical association model for expected outcomes given observed exposure. Under the model, we derive estimating equations which yield consistent, asymptotically normal and efficient estimators of the structural effects. We examine their robustness to model misspecification and construct robust estimators in the absence of any exposure effect. The double-logistic structural mean model is developed in more detail to estimate the effect of observed exposure on the success of treatment in a randomized controlled blood pressure reduction trial with self-selected non-compliance.     

应用哲学的理论定位

一种理论 ,不仅有“质”的规定 ,而且有“特性”的规定。哲学语言是晦涩的 ,但在不同的语境和背景中 ,有其他理论不可替代的作用。哲学 ,作为思维的产物和实践的结晶 ,不是无用 ,也不是小用 ,而是大用。哲学发展的重要趋势 ,必将日益显示出哲学的作用。     

野生花卉在我国北方园林中的应用研究

在现有的城市绿地系统中,千篇一律的园林植物栽培使园林景观单调,且生态效应差。加强野生花卉在园林中的应用可提高城市园林的自然度。我国有着丰富的野生植物资源,其生态习性、观赏特性各异,在园林中的应用方式也多种多样。应积极开展野生花卉的引种驯化等工作,推广野生花卉在园林造景中的应用。     

言语生成及理解的心理模型

言语生成 (speechproduction)和言语理解 (speechunderstanding)是语言交际中十分复杂的心理认知过程 ,也是心理语言学研究中的一个重要内容。本文拟对有关言语生成和理解的几种心理模型予以讨论 ,探讨言语生成及理解的过程和实质。     

"价值理性":在哲学应用的视域内

价值理性是哲学应用理论的一个重要范畴 ,是人类理性发展的成果 ,它体现了人类理性的合目的与合规律相统一的本质特征。价值理性规定着哲学应用的必要性、可能性及其应用结果的成败 ,是哲学应用的方法论基础     

密度分布非均匀的反馈控制Logistic单种群模型平衡态的稳定性

本文对种群密度在非均匀分布情形下,考虑了具反馈控制的滞后 Logistic 生态模型平衡位置的稳定性;分别给出了在常时滞和弱连续时滞以及强连续时滞情况下的稳定性条件;其结果是对 Gopalsamy 在密度均匀分布情形下相应结果的推广.     

论民商事法律冲突的内涵

冲突法学者将法律冲突界定为民商事法律冲突 ,继而又把民商事法律冲突归结为民商事法律适用冲突。事实上 ,民商事法律冲突不等于民商事法律适用冲突。民商事法律冲突是不同法域的民商事法律之间相互抵触、相互冲撞的社会现象 ,是民商实体法冲突、冲突法冲突、程序法冲突的三位一体。