Danger of strong causal reasoning in juvenile justice policy and practice

Policy responses to social problems are shaped, among other things, by understandings of their causes. Strong causal reasoning, however, poses the danger of unsuccessful program outcomes where ‘weak’ theories are uncritically adopted to inform program design. This article describes this danger in the field of juvenile crime and corrections where theory development remains wanting. It also focuses on the findings of meta-analyses of juvenile correctional programs as providing scope for strengthening explanations for juvenile crime by inductive means of theory building.     

当代大学生政治观现状及教育对策思考

在客观分析当代大学生政治观现状的基础上,找出影响大学生政治观形成的主客观因素,进而提出增强大学生政治观教育实效性的具体措施。     

The concept of adequate causation and Max Weber's comparative sociology of religion

Max Weber's The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, studied in isolation, shows mainly an elective affinity or an adequacy on the level of meaning between the Protestant ethic and the 'spirit' of capitalism. Here it is suggested that Weber's subsequent essays on 'The Economic Ethics of World Religions' are the result of his opinion that adequacy on the level of meaning needs and can be verified by causal adequacy. After some introductory remarks, particularly on elective affinity, the paper tries to develop the concept of adequate causation and the related concept of objective possibility on the basis of the work of v. Kries on whom Weber heavily relied. In the second part, this concept is used to show how the study of the economic ethics of India, China, Rome and orthodox Russia can support the thesis that the 'spirit' of capitalism, although it may not have been caused by the Protestant ethic, was perhaps adequately caused by it.     

中国股票市场发展与经济增长关系的动态分析

论文运用VAR(向量自回归)方法,选用1995年至2001年的季度时间序列数据,对中国股票市场发展与经济增长的因果关系和冲击响应进行了实证分析,实证结果表明中国股票市场与经济增长之间只存在着由经济增长到股票市场发展的单向因果关系,而股票市场规模扩张冲击对经济增长的动态影响十分微弱。     

Epidemiology and litigation—the Sellafield childhood leukaemia cases

Statisticians and scientists are often required to provide information outside the scientific community. One important example is as an expert witness in the law courts. The civil litigation cases of Reay versus British Nuclear Fuels plc and Hope versus British Nuclear Fuels plc are a vivid illustration of how science and scientists interact with the law and lawyers. The personal injury cases were decided on the basis of how a specific epidemiological association should be properly interpreted, and this involved many experts. It is desirable that statisticians and scientists understand the nature of expert evidence, and these two cases are used to illuminate the role of the scientist in civil litigation.     

Analyzing Complicity in Risk

When risks generate anger rather than fear, there is at least someone who regards the imposition of those risks as wrongdoing; and it then makes sense to speak of the involvement in producing those risks as complicity. It is particularly relevant to examine the complicity of risk bearers, because this is likely to have a strong influence on how far other actors should go in providing them with protection. This article makes a case for analyzing complicity explicitly, in parallel with normal processes of risk assessment, and proposes a framework for this analysis. It shows how it can be applied in a case study of maritime transportation, and examines the practical and theoretical difficulties of this kind of analysis. The conclusion is that the analysis has to be formative rather than summative, but that it could provide a useful way of exposing differences in the assumptions of different actors about agency and responsibility.     

机会丧失原则探析

在患者罹患的是治愈率比较低的疾病的情况下,且医疗过程中又遭遇了医生的疏忽,最终造成患者死亡或者其他后果。根据传统因果关系法则,患者无法证明所遭遇的损害是因为医生的过失所造成的,故难以获赔。鉴于这种案件的不公正性,有学者提出了机会丧失原则。在该框架内,单纯机会丧失学说是在没有改变传统因果关系判断法则和证明中盖然性要求的前提下,转变因果关系之"果"的概念,认为机会的丧失是一种损害,使得事实因果关系易于成立,给予患者合理的救济。美国随后的司法实践中,衍生出不同的解决方法,分别出现了降低盖然性要求的"实质可能性说"和改变传统因果关系法则的"比例因果关系"学说。文章就机会丧失原则进行理论分析,给我国司法界在处理类似医疗纠纷时提供借鉴和参考。     

合理预见规则比较研究

合理预见规则是为限制可得利益损失范围而产生的 ,它见诸多国民法典中。我国合同法的预见规则更有利于对债权人利益的保护。预见规则与主观过错、因果关系既有异曲同工之处 ,又有各自的特色     

当代大学生思想发展变化的动因及特点研究

了解和把握当代大学生的思想特点,是做好大学生思想政治教育的关键.本文从研究大学生思想发展变化的主要影响因素入手,就国际思潮复杂化、国内经济发展快速化、高等教育大众化、成长环境网络化等四个方面的发展变化,分析了影响当代大学生思想发展变化的主要原因.并依据变化的背景,结合变化的特点,重点从政治态度、理想信念、道德观念、行为方式和心理健康等五个方面分析归纳了当代大学生所具有的思想特点.     

中日环境健康损害因果关系证明比较研究

以20世纪60年代的四大公害诉讼为契机,日本在法学理论和司法实务中针对公害健康损害因果关系的认定发展出了不同于传统侵权诉讼的因果关系推定规则,具体包括盖然性法、间接反证法、流行病学法等推定方法。我国则自20世纪90年代开始,通过特殊的因果关系举证责任分配规则实现保护受害人的政策目标。但是在理论研究和司法实务中,对这种特殊的举证责任分配规则的理解存在分歧,其争议焦点在于受害人是否对因果关系事实承担一定的举证责任。通过对中日的比较,可以发现日本的做法更为谨慎,其在坚守科学证明的前提下兼顾受害人保护的价值追求;而我国则更注重于受害人保护这一政策目标的实现,而忽视了证明的最终目标是寻求事实真相。我国应当在坚持现有举证责任规则的基础上,在审判实务中探索适用因果关系推定方法,实现政策考量与法律逻辑的相对平衡。