西北五省经济人口承载力的分析及预测

对于中国这个人口大国,人口承载力是一个值得研究和关注的课题,西北五省在人们的印象中是地广人稀,学界对该地区的人口承载力的研究大都从自然资源的角度探讨,然而本文不考虑自然因素的作用,认为一个区域资源的稀缺可以通过经济技术解决,只是成本高低的问题,因此仅从经济人口承载力的角度分析,利用P-E-R模型分析西北五省人口承载力,并利用ARIMA模型对2012-2015年该地区人口承载力进行预测,并得出相关结论.     

Over‐indebtedness and microcredit in Cambodia: Moving beyond borrower‐centric frames

Over the past two decades, Cambodia has experienced an unprecedented credit boom, a growth in lending so rapid that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) referred to it as “one of the fastest financial deepening episodes by historical cross‐cultural standards” (IMF, 2016, p. 4). This deepening has been driven by the expansion of microcredit. In tandem, over‐indebtedness has increased among microcredit borrowers, and debt has become a significant political and economic concern. This article explores how over‐indebtedness is understood and explained by stakeholders across microcredit value chains. To do so, we draw on interviews with microfinance institution (MFI) executives, investors, branch managers, partners, financial literacy trainers, loan officers and borrowers in Siem Reap and Phnom Penh. We find that across the sector, dominant framings of over‐indebtedness privilege borrower‐centric explanations, while discounting the structural drivers of excessive lending and borrowing. As a consequence, current efforts to limit over‐indebtedness are unlikely to produce the kinds of solutions that are most needed to reduce the debt stress among borrowers. These arguments have implications across the Global South, particularly for contexts where microfinance is rapidly expanding.     

Population aging and long-term care policies in the Gulf region: a case study of Oman

Population aging is a phenomenon occurring across the globe including in countries traditionally exhibiting population dividends and “youth bulges.” The Gulf Corporation Council countries are no exception as they currently experience a process of population aging, albeit at a different stage from many developed countries. However, due to historically high fertility rates and fast-paced epidemiological transition, some of these countries will experience population aging at a higher pace than what has been observed in Europe and the United States. This article reviews recent developments in long-term care policies in the Gulf region with a focus on Oman as an example of a high-income Arab country that is experiencing population aging while still being governed by traditional family aged-care norms. Utilizing existing data and published research complemented by policy analysis and field visits, we analyze the process of population aging in Oman and neighboring countries and its policy implications.     

贫困农户脱贫主体性不足的发生逻辑

“干部积极干，农户站边看”的贫困群体脱贫逆化现象影响着农村社会的健康发展和脱贫攻坚工作的高效开展。通过田野调查发现，贫困农户脱贫主体性不足的发生逻辑首先在于小农理性下受利益驱使的农户形成争当贫困户的“自愿型贫困”，造成贫困农户“不愿”脱贫；其次，贫困农户在贫困识别、资源匹配和脱贫行动选择方面因决策受限形成“边缘化治贫”，造成农户的“不能”脱贫；最后，贫困农户受贫困文化影响导致“精神贫困”，造成贫困农户的“内卷化脱贫”。因此，需要从增加贫困农户脱贫意愿和强化贫困农户内生脱贫能力两个维度来构建贫困农户的有效脱贫主体性。     

属性集容量确定的夹挤式测度模式及其推算模型

迄今，为解决多属性偏好关联决策属性集容量判断指数复杂性难题所提出的λ模糊测度模式与k-可加模糊测度模式，以及建构在它们之上的属性集容量确定的推算模型，尚存在着适用性差的技术不足。为此，以平衡容量判断的可操作性和容量推算的准确性为视角，提出了一种新容量测度模式，即关于容量判断与推算的夹挤式测度模式，并在此基础上通过引入决策者较易判断给出的容量序信息构建了相应的容量推算模型。基于数值模拟的对比分析表明：新模式不仅在应用可行性上高于k-可加模糊测度模式，而且从容量推算的准确性上看也明显优于λ模糊测度模式和k-可加模糊测度模式，因而对实际决策具有更强的适用性。     

Assumptions,conjectures, and other miracles: The application of evaluative thinking to theory of change models in community development

Unexamined and unjustified assumptions are the Achilles’ heel of development programs. In this paper, we describe an evaluation capacity building (ECB) approach designed to help community development practitioners work more effectively with assumptions through the intentional infusion of evaluative thinking (ET) into the program planning, monitoring, and evaluation process. We focus specifically on one component of our ET promotion approach involving the creation and analysis of theory of change (ToC) models. We describe our recent efforts to pilot this ET ECB approach with Catholic Relief Services (CRS) in Ethiopia and Zambia. The use of ToC models, plus the addition of ET, is a way to encourage individual and organizational learning and adaptive management that supports more reflective and responsive programming.     

Deterred by debt? Young people,schools and the escalating cost of UK higher education

Popular commentaries lament that reforms to the financing of Higher Education (HE) in the UK will operate as a significant deterrent to HE participation amongst students from less advantaged backgrounds. This view of debt as a deterrent is powerful and exists not only at a societal level, but also, as we show, is present in schools. Our data reveal, however, that these ‘debt commentaries’ play out very differently across schools according to the nature of their catchment and the sorts of views staff hold about pupils in relation to their fear of debt. Furthermore, students’ views on debt largely contradict these popular ‘debt-as-deterrent’ narratives and instead are often characterised by acceptance, ambivalence and at times positive orientations towards the prospect of debt. These findings vividly illuminate both the regional and institutional specificity of staff and student decision making in relation to ‘debt’, hence they have substantial implications for HE funding policy specifically and debates about widening participation in HE more generally, where ensuring greater equity in the scope of choices young people have when it comes to choosing a university is a pressing concern.     

The Interview for Decisional Abilities (IDA): a tool to assess the decisional capacity of abused and neglected older adults

We present the Interview for Decisional Abilities (IDA), a semi-structured tool for use by adult protective services (APS) workers as part of their comprehensive assessments of clients. The IDA was created in response to a Federal mandate to standardize the procedures and competencies of APS agencies with a view to improving client assessments and facilitating cross-jurisdictional research on adult mistreatment. The proximal aim of the IDA is to guide workers in gathering information on the ability of suspected victims of adult mistreatment to make decisions about the risks they face.     

无产阶级政权建设规律的初步探索

马克思从揭示人类社会发展规律的角度,通过对世界上第一次出现的无产阶级政权——巴黎公社的分析和总结,阐述了科学社会主义政权建设理论,提出了一些基本政治原则。他指出:建立一个真正的人民国家是无产阶级专政的基础和前提;以责任制廉价政府代替官僚等级制政府是其主要形式;以议行合一原则取代分权制衡原则的权力分配形式可以保证国家机构的政治效能。中国共产党在长期执政实践中积累了丰富的执政经验,党的十九大提出中国特色社会主义已进入新时代。在此契机下重新研读马克思经典著作,对认识和把握中国共产党执政新飞跃、实现国家治理体系和治理能力现代化有着重大现实意义。     

基于优先权拍卖的产能分配机制研究

本文考虑一个供应商和两个独立零售商构成的供应链系统。当供应商的产能受到约束时，零售商可能会竞争有限的产能。本文提出将“优先分配权”作为一个有价值的标的物进行拍卖，按照出价高低确定优先分配顺序。本文证明了优先权拍卖机制属于共同价值模型，并提出了两类拍卖机制：事先拍卖和事后拍卖。本文证明两类优先权拍卖机制均会促使零售商提交真实的需求作为订单量，并且满足收益等价定理。而就供应商期望利润而言，事后优先权拍卖机制要高于事先优先权拍卖机制。