自组织建模方法和GDP增长模型研究

经济系统的复杂性决定了经济变动及影响因素解释的困难性。本文阐述了一种经济系统复杂性研究的有效方法-自组织建模方法,同时应用此方法建立一个解释我国GDP增长的自组织模型,分析影响我国经济增长的主要因素,并在此基础上提出相应的对策思路。     

低碳视角下农业生态补偿的激励有效性

运用多任务委托代理理论模型,从低碳视角分析了农业生态补偿契约中的激励关系,进而采用调研获取的微观农户数据对这一关系进行了实证检验。研究发现：政府主导的低碳农业生态补偿机制呈现出弱激励特性,主要原因在于农户进行低碳生产努力的经济价值未能显化,以及现行生态补偿机制所呈现的刚性特征。通过运用农业碳计量模型核算碳产品产量后发现,并非所有农业项目的经营都实现了碳汇量盈余,部分农户在低碳农业生产过程中出现了“搭便车”的现象,如此长期来看,农户逆向选择风险较大;因子得分结果显示农户在碳产品生产任务上的努力程度不高,代理人农户以低碳为目标的生产性努力缺乏有效激励,进而导致农户低碳生产态度与低碳生产行为发生了背离;农户低碳生产意识、态度、行为是农户低碳生产努力程度的显著影响因素,以低碳生产态度影响的重要程度最高。实现农业净碳汇效益经济价值的显化、提升农户低碳生产的积极性是强化农业生态补偿机制激励有效性的两条重要措施。     

生存理性如何影响农户的差别化生产

在食品安全威胁下,农户重新定义了“为自家生产”和“为市场生产”的差别化生产行为。基于经济理性行为假设认为农户存在以确保自家食品安全为动机的生存理性。根据在5省区收集的827份农村入户调研数据,对农户差别化生产行为进行具体分析,描述了差别化生产行为总体特征,并测量农户食品安全自我保护意识、威胁感知程度和信息渠道等因素。运用Probit模型验证了命题：以食品安全自我保护意识为特征的生存理性,支配了农户为确保自家消费安全而进行的差别化生产。     

跨社区生态补偿机制的实践困境与构建策略

目前学界对小地域空间内跨社区环境治理研究较少。生态补偿是治理跨界环境问题的重要手段,市场主导的跨社区生态补偿机制与政府主导的跨行政区生态补偿机制在补偿主体、补偿模式上有明显差别。基于云南M县的田野调查,探讨上下游村庄围绕水问题的跨社区生态补偿机制的构建。实践探索中的跨社区生态补偿存在补偿资金不足、补偿意愿较低、协商机制不健全和支付主体分散的困境。结合已有成功实践,从补偿定价机制、补偿协商机制、补偿支付方式、村庄治理能力建设等4个方面提出跨社区生态补偿机制的建构对策。跨社区生态补偿机制可以为我国大地域空间市场化、多元化生态补偿机制的构建积累有益经验。     

基于低碳发展的生态物流绩效评价研究——以重庆市为例

运用因子分析法对重庆市2006—2015年生态物流绩效进行评价。研究发现：近十年重庆市生态物流保持着越来越好的发展态势;重庆物流业过去单一追求规模和数量的扩张对生态物流绩效造成了负面影响;同时,政府对环保的立法和监管对生态物流的发展也起到了促进作用。最后,根据分析的结果提出对策建议。     

新媒体背景下公众参与生态文明建设的路径

党的十八、十九大均指出,生态文明建设功在当代、利在千秋。十九大进一步明确提出要构建“政府主导、社会协同、公众参与、法治保障”的生态文明建设新局面。《环境保护公众参与办法》的出台为公众参与环境保护提供了强有力的制度保障,但公众的参与程度与许多因素有关。在积极发动和鼓励公众参与生态文明建设的过程中,政府可发挥新媒体协商平台的作用,提高新媒体的回应能力,为公众参与生态文明建设提供保障;公众应借助新媒体互动平台的功能,进一步提升生态意识,践行生态行为,自觉维护生态环境;环保组织要发挥新媒体的聚焦作用,推动环保组织的成长壮大。     

绿水青山就是金山银山——习近平生态文明建设思想的哲学依据

建设美丽中国、实现中华民族永续发展、建设具有中国特色社会主义,必须抓好生态文明建设。习近平生态文明建设思想以马克思辩证唯物主义原理和我国传统的儒家、道家文化根基中的生存智慧作为哲学依据,是顺应时代要求的新论断。这个思想有着生态自然观与生态经济观相统一、规律性与目的性相统一、继承性与创新性相统一、科学性与实践性相统一的思想特点。有此思想指导,我国全面建成小康社会、夺取新时代中国特色社会主义的伟大胜利、实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦必然指日可待。     

长江经济带生态效率时空格局演化及影响因素研究

文章基于108个城市2004-2014年市级面板数据测度了长江经济带城市生态效率的时空演变格局,综合而言,长江经济带生态效率水平呈现出波动上升态势,长江流域城市生态效率分化特征明显,湖南、湖北和四川等长江上游城市生态效率较高,长江上、中、下游地区城市生态效率依次递减.对生态效率的影响因素研究表明,科技创新显著地提高了长江经济带的生态效率,经济快速增长降低了城市生态效率,意味着转变经济增长方式、加快科技创新是提高城市生态效率的有效途径.研究还发现,产业结构偏离度有利于提高城市生态效率,而产业升级抑制了城市生态效率的增长,意味着产业升级并不是提高城市生态效率的捷径.     

Early Pregnancy Assessment Services in Australia: What psychosocial support is available? A qualitative study

ProblemWomen commonly experience emotional distress following miscarriage but do not receive the support they need from healthcare providers.BackgroundMiscarriage can result in psychological morbidity; however, appropriate support at the time of a miscarriage can lead to better psychological outcomes. Early Pregnancy Assessment Services (EPASs) are dedicated outpatient services considered the “gold standard” for miscarriage care. Little is known about the psychosocial support EPASs provide in Australia.AimsThe aim of this study was to explore the provision of psychosocial support in Australian EPASs.MethodsSemi-structured interviews were conducted with 29 purposively sampled key-informants from 13 EPASs. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, and thematically analysed.FindingsConsiderable variation was found in how EPASs functioned and their provision of psychosocial support. Many services were co-located with antenatal services, run by doctors with limited experience and most did not offer any psychosocial training to staff specific to EPAS. Referrals for additional support were generally not offered for first trimester miscarriages, and follow-up typically focused on physical management rather than emotional wellbeing. All EPAS staff demonstrated a strong commitment to providing best possible care to women within their own clinical setting and acknowledged the need for improved psychosocial support.ConclusionThis study provides the first exploration of Australian EPASs’ provision of psychosocial support. It has shown that while health care professionals working in EPASs are dedicated to providing the best possible care to women within their clinical setting, psychosocial support is very limited and could be improved.     

Understanding Client Communities Spatially for Developing Effective Interventions: Application of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Technology for Program Planning in Health and Human Services Agencies

Social workers are better equipped to understand the need to incorporate geographical aspects pertaining to their clients’ lives as part of their practice, given the significant influence these factors have on client well-being. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology is a useful tool for administrators and planners to make informed decisions regarding human service programs including examining program outcomes and impact as well as streamlining program implementation. This article synthesizes the literature to date on GIS in health and human services with examples of real world applications.