文化与媒介传播中的虚假认同问题——基于文化研究的多维视角

虚假认同不仅仅局限于外显的、为主体所意识到的表层虚假性,而且具有不为受众所明确意识到时的表征机制与文化后果。虚假认同具有以下多方面的运作机理与理论内涵：社会文化维度的虚假意识与虚假需要,受众主体维度的认知非一致性与内隐态度,媒介传播维度的隐性效果。虚假认同机制具有与伪文化皮肤、虚假意识“教养”、弱效果沉默螺旋等社会文化语境间的现实驱动关联,是我们审视应对当代媒介文化的传播效应与接受问题的重要向度。     

上市公司虚假信息成本与收益分析——基于博弈论视角

上市公司虚假信息披露事件层出不穷,要从根本上找到解决虚假信息披露问题的方法,必须充分了解掌握这些利益主体的博弈过程,增加虚假信息披露的成本,降低虚假信息披露的收益,由此减少其披露虚假信息的博弈空间。     

On batch queueing systems: A combinatorial approach

We consider batch queueing systems M/M^H/1 and M^H/M/1 with catastrophes. The transient probability functions of these queueing systems are obtained by a Lattice Path Combinatorics approach that utilizes randomization and dual processes. Steady state distributions are also determined. Generalization to systems having batches of different sizes are discussed.     

基于无缺陷退货的网上销售易逝品供应链协调模型

本文针对网上在线销售易逝品的无缺陷退货现象,考虑了供应链的最优订购协调问题。利用一个两阶段动态规划来描述动态市场环境下网上销售商的两次订购行为,在假定在两个销售阶段都发生无缺陷退货现象的前提下,分别建立了集中和分散决策模型,同时设计了价格保护契约以实现供应链的协调运作。最后,利用数值仿真得出了一些重要的管理启示。通过研究发现：（1）当不确定性较大时,网上销售商需要在第1阶段多订购产品以应对需求风险,因此导致了较低的系统期望利润。并且,需求的不确定性越大,供应链协调越有价值。（2）当第1阶段或第2阶段退货率或两阶段退货率都增加时,两个阶段的最优订购量均减小。（3）对于需求波动性较高的产品,顾客的退货率越小或者可服务退货率越大,价值越高（即对供应链系统期望利润的提高越显著）。     

心理理论研究的起源与进展

自1983年Wimmer和Perner创设了心理理论研究的经典实验范式——“错误信念任务”范式以来,心理理论的研究成为发展心理学研究中的一个热点课题。文章主要对以下几个方面的研究进行了综述:心理理论研究的起源、研究范式、Wellman等人对儿童心理理论研究的元分析过程和结果、心理理论发展的影响因素和研究范围,并在此基础上讨论了以往研究的不足以及今后研究的方向。     

冯应榴《苏诗合注》的文献考证

乾嘉学者冯应榴撰有《苏文忠公诗合注》,该书针对从宋代到清代的苏诗旧注进行了全面的文献考订。首先是删除了冗注、合理地移动了部分注文的顺序、补充了旧注的阙文,并核对原书,订正了引文的错误。其次,冯应榴在查慎行《苏诗补注》的的基础上,依靠宋代至明清的各类文献,进行了辑佚和辨伪工作。此外,冯应榴还对前代的苏轼年谱作了考证,纠正了其中关于苏轼的事迹、苏诗的编年、宋代的时事的错误。因而,《苏诗合注》具有很高的文献价值。      

Some power aspects of methods for detecting different shifts in the mean

We study, by means of simulations, the performance of the Shewhart method, the Cusum method, the Shiryaev-Roberts method and the likelihood ratio method in the case when the true shift differs from the shift for which the methods are optimal. The methods are compared for a fixed expected time until false alarm. The comparisons are made with respect to some measures associated with power such as probability of alarm when the change occurs immediately, expected delay of true alarm and predictive value of an alarm.     

Online change detection of Markov chains with unknown post-change transition probabilities

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we investigate the performance of cumulative sum (CUSUM) stopping rules for the online detection of unknown change point in a time homogeneous Markov chain. Under the condition that the post-change transition probabilities are unknown, we proposed two CUSUM type schemes for the detection. The first scheme is based on the maximum likelihood estimates of the post-change transition probabilities. This scheme is limited by its computation burden, which is mitigated by another scheme based on the reference transition probabilities selected from a prior known region. We give the bounds of the mean delay time and the mean time between false alarms to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes. The results of the simulation also demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed schemes.     

辨明虚实曲径寻幽——《春江花月夜》"鸿雁"句常解辨误

张若虚《眷江花月夜》一诗“鸿雁长飞光不度,鱼龙潜跃水成文”两句,历来是众说纷纭的难点。从对诗文表达的虚实、诗意指向的“彼”“此”等方面的认识出发,在确认其结构倒装的基础上,辨明其中所见、所想,厘清其中感情的流向,进而正确地把握诗意,应谊是：因光不度又怨鸿雁长飞相思难传,看水成纹而想鱼龙潜跃尺素在望。     

Bootstrapping in a high dimensional but very low-sample size problem

This article is concerned with testing multiple hypotheses, one for each of a large number of small data sets. Such data are sometimes referred to as high-dimensional, low-sample size data. Our model assumes that each observation within a randomly selected small data set follows a mixture of C shifted and rescaled versions of an arbitrary density f. A novel kernel density estimation scheme, in conjunction with clustering methods, is applied to estimate f. Bayes information criterion and a new criterion weighted mean of within-cluster variances are used to estimate C, which is the number of mixture components or clusters. These results are applied to the multiple testing problem. The null sampling distribution of each test statistic is determined by f, and hence a bootstrap procedure that resamples from an estimate of f is used to approximate this null distribution.