网络突发事件的生成与治理： 基于风险的社会放大框架的分析

从风险的角度看,网络突发事件就是一个以网络为主要传播媒介的风险的社会放大过程,也是一个在网络与社会现实不断互动中放大社会风险的系统.本文以风险的社会放大框架为分析工具,对网络突发事件的酝酿与生成机制进行深入的分析,并在此基础上,提出了要以风险治理为切入点对网络突发事件进行治理,从风险控制转向风险沟通,重构风险传播中政府、媒体和公众三者关系等若干政策性建议.     

近代荣家企业融资方式初探

我国民营企业的发展在当前面临着许多难题,其中融资便是最难的问题之一。众所周知,近代民营企业发展缓慢的重要原因之一也是资本短缺,因此,对荣家企业融资方式作初步的探讨,一定会对我们今天的民营企业的融资问题有所借鉴和启示。     

社会网络在创业融资中的作用机制——基于上海新创企业的经验分析

交易费用昂贵、信息不对称严重和创业计划未来的高度不确定性造成创业融资活动中资金供需双方的交易困难。经济学者以契约设计为主线的理论不能完全解释创业融资现象,而社会网络理论提供了互补的新的理论手段。文章通过文献研究,提出了社会网络作用于创业融资的三个理论假设,并对上海24家新创企业的81个研究样本进行了统计分析,认为社会网络作用于创业融资的机制是以专有信息为基础,以人际信任为核心,以自利动机和利他动机并存为表征的综合作用机制。     

论公司理财权力竞争与运用

从公司理财权力概念、基本特征着手,分析了公司理财中客观上存在着的理财权力竞争。认为公司理财权力的价值、金字塔形的组织结构、资源的稀缺、绩效标准、环境的不确定性、权谋倾向,意见分歧是公司理财权力竞争的动因;公司及公司利益相关者可以通过法定程序、特殊才能和资源、特殊的行为等途径获得公司理财权力;公司理财人员要善于运用法定权力、奖酬权力、强制权力、专家权力和参照权力。     

On pseudo-values for regression analysis in competing risks models

For regression on state and transition probabilities in multi-state models Andersen et al. (Biometrika 90:15–27, 2003) propose a technique based on jackknife pseudo-values. In this article we analyze the pseudo-values suggested for competing risks models and prove some conjectures regarding their asymptotics (Klein and Andersen, Biometrics 61:223–229, 2005). The key is a second order von Mises expansion of the Aalen-Johansen estimator which yields an appropriate representation of the pseudo-values. The method is illustrated with data from a clinical study on total joint replacement. In the application we consider for comparison the estimates obtained with the Fine and Gray approach (J Am Stat Assoc 94:496–509, 1999) and also time-dependent solutions of pseudo-value regression equations.     

Efficacy of Risk-Based, Culturally Sensitive Ogaa (Walleye) Consumption Advice for Anishinaabe Tribal Members in the Great Lakes Region

The Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission (GLIFWC) has produced Ogaa (walleye— Sander vitreus ) consumption advisories since 1996 for Anishinaabe from GLIFWC member tribes in the 1837 and 1842 ceded territories of Wisconsin. GLIFWC's advisory maps were revised in 2005 to address cultural sensitivities (to protect tribal lifeways), to utilize recent mercury exposure information, and to incorporate changes in advisory levels for methyl mercury. Lake-specific, risk-based, culturally sensitive consumption advice was provided on color-coded maps for two groups: children under age 15 years and females of childbearing age, and males 15 years and older and females beyond childbearing age. The maps were distributed to, and a behavioral intervention program developed for, the six GLIFWC member tribes in Wisconsin as well as member tribes in Minnesota and the 1842 ceded territory of Michigan. Tribal fish harvesters, tribal health care providers, women of childbearing age or with young children, tribal leaders, elders, and children were targeted specifically for the behavioral intervention. The efficacy of the behavioral intervention was assessed using surveys of 275 tribal fish harvesters from Wisconsin, 139 tribal harvesters from Michigan and Minnesota, and 156 Wisconsin women of childbearing age. Significant increases in the percentage of survey participants who indicated awareness of advisory maps occurred among Wisconsin harvesters (increase from 60% to 77%), Michigan and Minnesota harvesters (29% to 51%), and women of childbearing age in Wisconsin (40% to 87%). A significant increase in preference for smaller Ogaa occurred among tribal harvesters in Wisconsin (41% to 72%) and tribal harvesters in Michigan and Minnesota (49% to 71%), although not among women of childbearing age. The GLIFWC map-based advisory program did not adversely affect tribal harvest of Ogaa, which increased from 63,000 to 88,000 fish in the three states after the intervention.     

A hybrid approach to configure eco-efficient supply chains under consideration of performance and risk aspects

Formal models that support multi-criteria decision making represent a strongly growing area in sustainable supply chain management research. However, uncertainties and risks are seldom considered in quantitative models for green supply chain (SC) design. The paper at hand suggests a hybrid approach to configure an eco-efficient SC for a new product under consideration of economic and environmental risks. Discrete-event simulation is applied to assess the financial, operational and environmental performance of different SC configuration options while the value-at-risk concept is adapted to evaluate related SC risks. The analytic hierarchy process is employed to solve the resulting multi-criteria decision problem of choosing the best option. The approach is illustrated at a case example of a fast moving consumer goods manufacturer.     

An additive subdistribution hazard model for competing risks data

The cumulative incidence function plays an important role in assessing its treatment and covariate effects with competing risks data. In this article, we consider an additive hazard model allowing the time-varying covariate effects for the subdistribution and propose the weighted estimating equation under the covariate-dependent censoring by fitting the Cox-type hazard model for the censoring distribution. When there exists some association between the censoring time and the covariates, the proposed coefficients’ estimations are unbiased and the large-sample properties are established. The finite-sample properties of the proposed estimators are examined in the simulation study. The proposed Cox-weighted method is applied to a competing risks dataset from a Hodgkin's disease study.     

美国银行信用风险与宏观经济变量的实证研究

以2005年到2012年美国综合银行不良贷款的相关数据为样本，对影响美国银行信用风险的宏观经济变量进行实证检验。研究结果表明：美国综合银行的信用风险水平比较高，其信用风险水平与失业率有着显著的强正相关关系，而与 GDP增长率、消费者物价指数增长率、生产者物价指数增长率和广义货币增长率无关。实际上，美国银行业的信用风险经过金融衍生品分散转化后并没有消除，只是被隐藏起来了，并且逐步累积。有鉴于此，提高我国银行业信用风险管理水平措施包括：一是着重研究宏观经济波动以及政策的实施对信用风险的影响；二是提高就业率，保持宏观经济环境的良好状态；三是借鉴西方发达国家较为成熟的理论体系，形成适合我国的风险管理控制方法；四是提高对住房贷款业务的风险认识；五是重视信用文化建设和银行信用制度创新。