Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I–I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I–I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term “essential entities” includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state‐space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS.     

Enoch Powell,empires, immigrants and education

2018 marks the 50th anniversary of Enoch Powell’s infamous ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech, an intervention that is still viewed as one of the most incendiary statements of the perceived decay and violence likely to follow legislation intended to assure minoritised British citizens of equal rights regardless of their ethnic origin. In this essay, Sally Tomlinson (one of Britain’s foremost multicultural theorists) reflects on Powell’s legacy and the contemporary scene where in the US, UK and across Europe, White resentment and fear is increasingly shaping ‘mainstream’ debates about nationhood, migration and education.     

朱熹和孟子解读舜之“怨慕”的不同逻辑

对于舜之“怨慕”,朱熹作出了不同于孟子的解读。这是基于心学、理学内在逻辑的不同。孟子作为私学之儒,和孔子一样,是主张士君子的阳刚人格的,并且从性向善的人性论出发,协调义与利、公与私的关系,而以君臣父子关系都属对待关系;依此,将舜之“怨慕”解读为舜对父母的既怨又慕。朱熹则作为官学之儒,以所谓“气质之性”协调理学先驱荀子的性向恶论,以二歧化思维把天地之性、天理绝对化,以公去私,视君臣父子关系则为下对上的绝对服从关系;依此解读,舜之“怨”只能是自怨。     

Developing a Rubric for Supervision of Students Counseling LGBTQ Clients

More than 100 pieces of anti-lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender (LGBT) legislation are active in 2018. In this current political climate of “conscience clause” legislation, counselor educators and supervisors are poised to adopt more holistic practices in assessing and evaluating student and supervisee readiness to work with LGBT queer (Q) clients. The purpose of this article is to present a dispositional framework for assessment and evaluation and introduce the flexibility, integrity, awareness, stability, compassion, and openness (FIASCO) rubric of professional counseling dispositions. Two court cases, Keeton v. Anderson-Wiley and Ward v. Wilbanks, are used as case examples for applying the FIASCO rubric to situations involving LGBTQ clients.     

需求率受推广努力水平影响的新能源汽车租赁系统协调契约

考虑由新能源汽车租赁企业和政府组成的二级系统，在需求率为随机且与推广努力水平相关的市场环境下，建立了新能源汽车租赁企业和政府之间的博弈模型，探讨了分散决策、集中决策、收益共享与成本共担契约下的最优车队配置和推广努力水平，并对三种情形下的最优决策进行了比较和分析。研究结果表明：在分散决策情况下无法实现系统协调，通过引入成本共担与收益共享组合契约，当契约参数满足一定条件时，该组合契约模型不仅可以实现系统协调而且可以使系统成员达到帕累托改进。最后通过算例分析，验证了模型了可靠性和有效性。     

Validation of the Australian Midwifery Standards Assessment Tool (AMSAT): A tool to assess midwifery competence

Background

There is no current validated clinical assessment tool to measure the attainment of midwifery student competence in the midwifery practice setting. The lack of a valid assessment tool has led to a proliferation of tools and inconsistency in assessment of, and feedback on student learning.

多边贸易体制下中国发展中国家地位问题研究——基于历史、现实与规范的多维考察

当前,发展中国家地位问题受到国际社会的高度关注,已成为世界贸易组织改革中的主要讨论议题。然而,现行世界贸易组织多边规则体系中并没有关于“发展中国家地位”的清晰界定,“自我认定”的方式正遭受一些国家的挑战。发展中国家地位和特殊与差别待遇条款密切相关,世界贸易组织规则体系中涵盖的155项特殊与差别待遇条款为发展中国家的国内政策提供了一定的灵活性,尽管多数为“最佳努力条款”。中国的发展中国家地位兼具身份和契约的双重属性,部分发达国家迫使中国放弃发展中国家地位,本质上旨在继续维持其在国际经济秩序中的主导地位。虽然中国的发展正处于“强起来”的第三阶段,但仍须坚持发展中国家地位不动摇。放弃发展中国家地位并不等于将获得发达国家的自动接纳,相反,还会影响到在其他国际组织和国际事务中的角色扮演,中国的发展离不开广大发展中国家的支持。当然,坚持发展中国家地位并不等于需要和其他发展中成员享受完全一致的差别待遇,在后续谈判中,中国可以保持一定的灵活性。在国际治理中,中国也将继续为国际社会的发展提供解决方案,树立负责任大国形象。     

就业优先:以"公平而有质量"的教育 在民族地区阻断贫困代际传递

“发展教育脱贫一批”是在民族地区实现共同富裕的重要方针。然而在“教育改变命运”的共识之外，布迪厄认为教育一代代地维持着对社会中下阶层的不公平的“文化再生产”理论，被一些学者应用于对我国少数民族教育的研究。如在“三区三州”等民族地区，代际间的贫困传递难以阻断，因家庭文化资本弱势而造成子女求学、求职受阻，看似可用“贫困文化的再生产”予以概括，但笔者不同意直接套用西方理论认定中国存在“教育不公平”的论述。因为我国社会实际与布氏提出“学校教育再生产社会阶层结构”观点之环境不同，有多项教育政策在切实保障着少数民族通过“教育改变命运”——当前在我国民族地区实现教育公平的主要障碍，并非 “文化再生产”的结构性阻力，而在于就业环节的阶段性困难。教育公平可分为起点、过程和结果三个环节，民族地区经多年教育扶贫，“起点”入学机会和“过程”教育质量已明显改善，而作为“结果”的就业环节亟待改善。以“就业优先”方针多渠道扩大少数民族就业，可激发内生动力、促进市场融入、巩固减贫成效和精准防控返贫，是助少数民族自主掌握教育“社会阶梯”和阻断贫困代际传递的有效路径。     

康区"三魔女",还是"康区三度母"——近代康区妇女精英研究

二十世纪上半叶康区三位著名妇女精英甘孜的孔萨?央金堪珠、德格的夏克? 泽旺志玛和瞻对的甲日?其美志玛在康区政治生活中扮演了重要的角色。她们之所以获得权力，是因为康区的传统习惯法以及清末和民国时期的法律都允许妇女在一个家族没有男性继承人的情况下继承名号和土司或头人的地位。为了获得和巩固政治地位，她们往往陷入多方势力的权力争斗中，这些势力包括其家族中的男性、来自其它家族的男性、地方军阀、中央政府，有时还有西藏地方政府。研究揭示了正是康区在夹缝中生存的各土司统治区域割裂、分权的性质为地方首领，特别是妇女领袖提供了较多的施展其政治才能的空间。     

先秦的“法治”思想和实践考量

先秦法家在与儒家“礼治”的争论中提出“法治”思想,并与战国时期富国强兵的国家策略结合,变法图存的“法治”实践此起彼伏。其中最为成功的是秦国的商鞅变法,秦国由此迅速崛起并最终吞并六国,建立起统一的封建国家。秦帝国的建立是“法治”思想和实践的里程碑,大秦将集权专制和“法治”相互糅合,将法家重刑思想发展到极端,走向了崇尚暴力和滥刑滥杀的野蛮恐怖境地,导致天下怨叛,秦王朝二世而亡,君权至上最终将法治引向了集权专制的死胡同。