高速公路施工进度风险评价

通过高速公路项目施工进度的风险识别,将主要影响因素分为硬、软指标并建立风险指标体系。采用模糊逻辑与概率分析相结合的方法对识别出来的风险进行计算和评价;运用主成分分析法将风险指标体系中的各数据进行自动赋权并降维,使概率分析与模糊逻辑法的评价简单易行;最后经过实际案例检验,证实该方法可行并具有现实意义。     

基于h指数的科研人员学术评价及其相关性分析

利用CNKI引文数据库为数据源,收集h指数≥10共985位科研人员的相关信息,阐述h指数的特征及其在科研人员学术评价中的适用性,从发文量、被引频次、年龄、科研单位、学科类别、地区等方面对h指数进行实证分析和对比研究,揭示h指数产生差异的影响因素,在此基础上说明h指数的利弊并提出可行性建议,以期为h指数的正确应用提供参考。研究发现:(1)h指数综合考虑论文产出数量和影响力,能够比较准确地评价科研人员的学术成就,但自身也存在局限性;(2)h指数与被引频次有较强的相关性,与发文量关系较弱,与科研人员的年龄无关;(3)h指数在不同科研单位、不同学科间的差异很大,不适合用于跨学科之间的比较;(4)不同省份科研人员h指数平均水平有显著的统计差异。     

村庄规划建设用地标准的反思与重构

通过对相关标准的比较,采用定性分析与定量研究相结合的方法,提出村庄建设用地指标体系的具体内容,并以此为基础,重构依经济社会发展和人口规模双因素控制的改进优化技术指标。该指标体系解决村庄建设用地无技术指标的状况,也为从事村庄规划编研人员提供了理论的借鉴及实践的指引。     

Relationship between the weighted distributions and some inequality measures

In this paper, we study the relationships between the weighted distributions and the parent distributions in the context of Lorenz curve, Lorenz ordering and inequality measures. These relationships depend on the nature of the weight functions and give rise to interesting connections. The properties of weighted distributions for general weight functions are also investigated. It is shown how to derive and to determine characterizations related to Lorenz curve and other inequality measures for the cases weight functions are increasing or decreasing. Some of the results are applied for special cases of the weighted distributions. We represent the reliability measures of weighted distributions by the inequality measures to obtain some results. Length-biased and equilibrium distributions have been discussed as weighted distributions in the reliability context by concentration curves. We also review and extend the problem of stochastic orderings and aging classes under weighting. Finally, the relationships between the weighted distribution and transformations are discussed.     

我国国债风险指标及其可持续性分析

国债作为一种国家信用行为,其发行规模的适度性会引发国债的规模风险、市场风险和使用风险,衡量国债风险的指标包括政府财政的应债能力和国民经济的应债能力.为评价国债风险对政府财政能力和国民经济的影响,通过建立经济学模型分别使用公共部门偿债能力法和新古典偿债能力法对中国现阶段国债赤字率、债务率及其可持续性进行测算、分析,并得出相关的结论.     

Filling a critical gap: measuring work policies that affect families globally

Work is a central element in most people's lives, and its adequacy and value cannot be measured by simple figures showing how many people have gained or lost jobs. Current measures of decent work are more comprehensive in terms of what matters to individuals, but deficient in their coverage of work policies that matter to families. In this article, we argue the importance and feasibility of measuring policies and laws that shape work quality, and in particular those that shape how work affects families on a global basis. We make the case that this policy area is especially critical under changing social conditions, and propose a manageable and feasible set of indicators permitting an assessment of the extent to which national labor policies facilitate the ability of working adults to meet the requirements of their jobs as well as the needs of their families. Methods are described and findings mapped for all UN countries in key areas including maternal leave, paternal leave, leave to care for children's health, leave to care for adult family members, and leave to meet other family needs.     

Quality of Web-based Information on Pathological Gambling

The present study aims to evaluate the quality of web-based information on gambling and to investigate potential content quality indicators. The following key words: gambling, pathological gambling, excessive gambling, gambling problem and gambling addiction were entered into two popular search engines: Google and Yahoo. Websites were assessed with a standardized proforma designed to rate sites on the basis of “accountability”, “presentation”, “interactivity”, “readability” and “content quality”. “Health on the Net” (HON) quality label, and DISCERN scale scores aiding people without content expertise to assess quality of written health publication were used to verify their efficiency as quality indicators. Of the 200 links identified, 75 websites were included. The results of the study indicate low scores on each of the measures. A composite global score appeared as a good content quality indicator. While gambling-related education websites for patients are common, their global quality is poor. There is a need for useful evidence-based information about gambling on the web. As the phenomenon has greatly increased, it could be relevant for Internet sites to improve their content by using global score as a quality indicator.     

Child and Family Outcomes in New York and Tel AVIV: Using Social Indicators in a City Level Comparative Analysis

This article presents a comparative study in which social indicators were employed as a means to examine differences in living conditions and family and children outcomes on a local level. The study obtained household-level data on the well-being of children and families in two cities: New York (NYC) and Tel Aviv (TLV). Data were collected using computer assisted telephone interview (CATI) technology and random digit dialing (RDD). Telephone interviews were conducted with the randomly selected adults in English, Spanish and Chinese in NYC and in Hebrew in TLV. The study reported here documented differences in family and child well-being between the two cities. It further documented that family size and caregiver level of education play a similar role in both cities and their importance in regard to child and family outcomes. The significant differences found in adults’ and especially children’s outcomes were analyzed by the caregiver’s level of education and further support the need for policies that alleviate the burden of less educated caregivers and aim to improve the well-being of them and their families. The study demonstrates the relevance of social indicators at the local level, not only for measuring outcomes among specific populations, but also in regard to their possible implications for social policies, a most timely task in an era of social services devolution.     

Indicators and Indices of Child Well-being: A Brief American History

This paper traces the history of indicators and indices of child well-being from its origins in the social indicator movement of the 1970s through recent developments in the field. Initial work calling for comprehensive sets of indicators of child well-being and later recommendations for indicator improvement are detailed. Products that resulted from these recommendations, such as comprehensive indicator reports and online resources are described. The development of child well-being indices is shown to parallel the history of indicators. The contributions of state and international indicator and index projects are included as well. Important aspects of child well-being indicator development are uncovered through documenting its history, including the need to focus on subjective as well as objective measures of well-being, and the need to develop indicators for the multiple ecological contexts of children’s lives, but to separate measures of context from measures of child outcomes. A rough consensus emerges across the history of indicator efforts on the critical domains of child well-being: physical, psychological, cognitive, social, and economic well-being. Recent recognition of the importance of indicators of positive development is noted. This paper was funded by the KIDS COUNT project of the Annie E. Casey Foundation.