论食品安全事件中的良性媒体应对

食品安全事件是近年来全球公共安全问题中的热点,由于食品安全的重要性、食品安全事件的公众效应以及基于传媒的属性,媒体常将其作为关注的热点。媒体在食品安全事件中发挥着监测预警、沟通信息、舆论引导等功能,同时也存在关注视角的选择性和职业自律的松懈等不足。作为一种社会公共资源和社会监督力量,基于传媒良知和职业操守,媒体在食品安全事件中必须形成一套良性的应对机制,包括建立信息有效传播机制、建立食品安全事件相关方的沟通协调机制、建立媒体自律机制等。     

Goodness-of-fit tests of generalized linear mixed models for repeated ordinal responses

Categorical longitudinal data are frequently applied in a variety of fields, and are commonly fitted by generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) and generalized estimating equations models. The cumulative logit is one of the useful link functions to deal with the problem involving repeated ordinal responses. To check the adequacy of the GLMMs with cumulative logit link function, two goodness-of-fit tests constructed by the unweighted sum of squared model residuals using numerical integration and bootstrap resampling technique are proposed. The empirical type I error rates and powers of the proposed tests are examined by simulation studies. The ordinal longitudinal studies are utilized to illustrate the application of the two proposed tests.     

论“日本视野”中的中国现实主义文学思潮接受

探讨中国现实主义文学思潮的接受来源,"日本视野"是不可或缺的视角.近在咫尺的东邻日本,较早接受西方现实主义文学思潮,曾在不同时期给中国现实主义文学思潮的生成与发展产生影响.但中国作家从日本引入的现实主义理论,有不同的内涵与特质,因而也会产生不同的接受效应.     

分析马克思主义的方法论基础探析

分析马克思主义作为西方马克思主义研究的一种新范式而出现,实现了马克思主义研究的方法论的新突破.西方社会科学中流行的个人主义解释模式构成其方法论的学术背景.约翰·埃尔斯特构建出分析马克思主义方法论的框架--以方法论个人主义为方法论原则,以意向性解释尤其是理性选择理论、博弈论为具体解释方法.围绕方法论个人主义和理性选择理论的争论逐步凸显出分析马克思主义研究方法论的全貌.只有运用辩证法精神,才能恰当处理方法论个人主义与方法论集体主义的关系、理性选择理论与功能解释的关系,才能准确评判与把握分析马克思主义的方法论基础.     

中国货币财政政策有效性的比较检验

货币政策和财政政策是政府干预宏观经济最重要、使用最频繁的两大工具。改革开放以来,我国政府综合运用货币政策和财政政策调控经济运行,促进经济增长。为检验中国1978～2006年间经济增长中货币政策和财政政策有效性的差异性特征,应用脉冲响应函数研究它们之间的动态特性后发现:无论是短期还是长期,积极货币政策对于经济增长均有正效应,而积极财政政策仅在短期内有效,长期内呈现负效应且随时间推移逐渐显著。积极财政政策长期失效的原因有多方面,主要是财政支出的供给范围不合理和支出管理失控产生的效率损失。     

Cultural capital or relative risk aversion? Two mechanisms for educational inequality compared1

In this paper we empirically examined two explanatory mechanisms for educational inequality: cultural reproduction and relative risk aversion, using survey data taken from secondary school pupils in Amsterdam. Cultural reproduction theory seeks to explain class variations in schooling by cultural differences between social classes. Relative risk aversion theory argues that educational inequalities can be understood by between-class variation in the necessity of pursuing education at branching points in order to avoid downward mobility. We showed that class variations in early demonstrated ability are for a substantial part cultural: cultural capital - measured by parental involvement in highbrow culture - affected school performance at the primary and secondary level. However, relative risk aversion - operationalized by being concerned with downward mobility - strongly affects schooling ambitions, whereas cultural capital had no effect. Thus, we conclude that 'primary effects' of social origin on schooling outcomes are manifested through cultural capital and not through relative risk aversion (in addition to other potential sources of class variations such as genetics). Relative risk aversion, and not cultural capital, affects schooling ambitions, which is relevant for our understanding of secondary effects.     

过程写作法在英语专业低年级的运用

过程写作法近年来盛行海外，已经成为西方写作教学主流。它将写作视为交互循环的心理认知过程和语言交际过程，重视写作的具体过程及其交际性，被证明对于提高学习者写作能力效果显著。本文系统地研究了过程写作法产生的背景、理论基础及其在写作教学中的实际应用。     

x~n+1在有理数域上的因式分解

从特殊情况研究多项式f(x)=xn+1在有理数域上的因式分解.对于正整数,设H(n)是n的大于1的奇约数的个数.本文用初等数论和近世代数的知识证明了:多项式xn+1在有理数域上可分解为H(n)+1个不可约因式的乘积,即D(f)=H(n)+1.     

评茅盾1949年前的“鲁迅论”

本文集中对茅盾1949年以前有关鲁迅的论述和评价进行了梳理。主要讨论了茅盾＂鲁迅论＂的分期、内容及特点,其中涉及到茅盾在研究鲁迅作品时的几个重要理论术语和提法,指出了茅盾＂鲁迅论＂对鲁迅研究界的贡献和影响。     

QMRA for Drinking Water: 2. The Effect of Pathogen Clustering in Single‐Hit Dose‐Response Models

Spatial and/or temporal clustering of pathogens will invalidate the commonly used assumption of Poisson‐distributed pathogen counts (doses) in quantitative microbial risk assessment. In this work, the theoretically predicted effect of spatial clustering in conventional “single‐hit” dose‐response models is investigated by employing the stuttering Poisson distribution, a very general family of count distributions that naturally models pathogen clustering and contains the Poisson and negative binomial distributions as special cases. The analysis is facilitated by formulating the dose‐response models in terms of probability generating functions. It is shown formally that the theoretical single‐hit risk obtained with a stuttering Poisson distribution is lower than that obtained with a Poisson distribution, assuming identical mean doses. A similar result holds for mixed Poisson distributions. Numerical examples indicate that the theoretical single‐hit risk is fairly insensitive to moderate clustering, though the effect tends to be more pronounced for low mean doses. Furthermore, using Jensen's inequality, an upper bound on risk is derived that tends to better approximate the exact theoretical single‐hit risk for highly overdispersed dose distributions. The bound holds with any dose distribution (characterized by its mean and zero inflation index) and any conditional dose‐response model that is concave in the dose variable. Its application is exemplified with published data from Norovirus feeding trials, for which some of the administered doses were prepared from an inoculum of aggregated viruses. The potential implications of clustering for dose‐response assessment as well as practical risk characterization are discussed.