减排约束下中国天然气供需安全评价:2006-2014年

为准确把握中国天然气供需安全状态,以2006-2014年的数据为样本,在模糊隶属度函数量化指标值的基础上,运用层次分析法(AHP)和熵值法确定指标权重,基于线性加权和函数计算均方根进行综合评价。结果表明:(1)中国天然气供需安全指数呈现"N形"波动,2006-2007年天然气供需安全指数上升。2007-2013年天然气供需安全指数年均下降1.7979。2013年以来天然气供需安全指数开始回升,天然气供需安全压力有所缓解。(2)天然气供应安全指数从2006年的17.5914下降到2013年的0.1556,峰谷差17.4359。天然气需求安全指数呈现"W形"波动。天然气市场安全指数相对稳定,2013年以来略有上升,天然气市场风险逐年下降。(3)天然气供需安全很大程度上取决于天然气供应是否安全。因此,建议从确保天然气稳定供应、提高天然气使用效率和降低市场风险方面采取措施,维护天然气供需安全。     

李东阳佚作12则考释

周寅宾、钱振民二先生整理的《李东阳集》为目前收录李东阳作品最全的集子,然犹有未尽。通过使用少为文学研究界所关注的碑刻、书画等文献资料,辑得李东阳佚作12篇。其中《跋<夏忠靖公集>》对了解《夏忠靖集》早期面貌提供了可贵的材料。其余佚作对研究李东阳交游、书学观及其诗文系年也颇有帮助。     

Dealing with the Initial Observation in the LM Unit Root Test

This article proposes a linearly weighted unit root test with a new weighting scheme which reflects the trade-off in power between the ADF and LM tests regarding the initial value of a time series. Simulation results indicate that the proposed test has better power performance and works better than other available tests in the literature for a range of initial conditions.     

Pooled Panel Unit Root Tests and the Effect of Past Initialization

This paper analyzes the role of initialization when testing for a unit root in panel data, an issue that has received surprisingly little attention in the literature. In fact, most studies assume that the initial value is either zero or bounded. As a response to this, the current paper considers a model in which the initialization is in the past, which is shown to have several distinctive features that makes it attractive, even in comparison to the common time series practice of making the initial value a draw from its unconditional distribution under the stationary alternative. The results have implications not only for theory, but also for applied work. In particular, and in contrast to the time series case, in panels the effect of the initialization need not be negative but can actually lead to improved test performance.     

The Local Power of the CADF and CIPS Panel Unit Root Tests

Very little is known about the local power of second generation panel unit root tests that are robust to cross-section dependence. This article derives the local asymptotic power functions of the cross-section argumented Dickey–Fuller Cross-section Augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) and CIPS tests of Pesaran (2007), which are among the most popular tests around.     

《鹿鼎记》的历史意趣

金庸武侠小说封笔之作<鹿鼎记>,既充满游戏笔墨,又富含历史意趣.金庸对两者的不同处理方式,揭示了隐含在游戏笔墨深处的历史意趣,一部优秀武侠小说不仅有娱众之功,亦可以有深刻的历史蕴涵,从而达到可观的思想高度--关键在于作者是否拥有历史感和历史见识.小说与历史这两种叙事文体,纠结着复杂而难分的关系,为小说审美提供了一个崇高标的.     

桐城谚语的地域文化解读

桐城历史悠久,文化发达.在长期的生产生活实践中,产生了大量的谚语,它包涵了丰富的文化信息.从文化语言学角度研究桐城谚语所反映的生活状况、民风民俗和思想观念.通过分析发现,桐城人重文尚读,敬祖尊亲;在为人处世方面他们尚礼贵和,珍视名誉,提倡自强,地域特征十分明显.研究不仅有助于更深入地了解桐城文化,也有助于更好地理解安徽文化,对发展繁荣安徽文化,构建和谐、学习型社会都具有重要的现实意义.     

晚清民国报人陈景韩救国理念初探——围绕袁世凯时期"二十一条"交涉之初步反应

1915年，日本对华提出旨在灭亡中国之“二十一条”要求，中国人民作出了广泛深入的反应。陈景韩作为晚清民国名报人，是新型知识分子的代表。这期间其围绕“二十一条”交涉在《申报》上刊载近140篇时评文章，倡扬其救国理念及目标。其救国理念虽有朦胧不清晰之特点，但偏向理性，启蒙意义不可低估。     

Lag Length Selection for Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Nonstationary Volatility

A number of recent papers have focused on the problem of testing for a unit root in the case where the driving shocks may be unconditionally heteroskedastic. These papers have, however, taken the lag length in the unit root test regression to be a deterministic function of the sample size, rather than data-determined, the latter being standard empirical practice. We investigate the finite sample impact of unconditional heteroskedasticity on conventional data-dependent lag selection methods in augmented Dickey–Fuller type regressions and propose new lag selection criteria which allow for unconditional heteroskedasticity. Standard lag selection methods are shown to have a tendency to over-fit the lag order under heteroskedasticity, resulting in significant power losses in the (wild bootstrap implementation of the) augmented Dickey–Fuller tests under the alternative. The proposed new lag selection criteria are shown to avoid this problem yet deliver unit root tests with almost identical finite sample properties as the corresponding tests based on conventional lag selection when the shocks are homoskedastic.     

科学发展观视域下的公共服务型政府建设

科学发展观指导公共服务型政府建设,而公共服务型政府则是实现科学发展观的保障。公共服务型政府建设面临着观念、制度、能力等方面的问题,要进一步推进公共服务型政府建设必须从观念转变、制度创新、流程再造、能力提高等方面着手。