De minimis and equity in risk

Indices and orderings are developed for evaluating alternative strategies in the management of risk. They reflect the goals of reducing individual and collective risks, of increasing equity, and of assigning priority to the reduction and to the equity of high risks. Individual risk is defined as the (random or non-random) level of exposure to a danger. In particular the role of a lower negligibility level is investigated. A class of indices is proposed which involves two parameters, a negligibility level and a parameter of inequality aversion, and several interpretations of the indices are discussed. We provide a set of eight axioms which are necessary and sufficient for this class of indices, and we present an approach to deal with partial information on the parameters.     

“鲁迅形象”建构的文化语境、过程与反思

"鲁迅形象"是中国现代文化史上典型的现代知识分子的形象符码,其生成过程与现代中国的动态语境密切相关,深刻地勾联了阐释者的文化心理和思维形态。"鲁迅形象"是由自塑和他塑合力而构成的公共形象,对其进行文化学意义上的考察可为探索现代中国发展的社会史和现代知识分子的心灵史提供理论资源。     

正确把握新时代坚持和加强党的全面领导的逻辑理路——中国化马克思主义发展思想研究

党的十九大明确作出“坚持和加强党的全面领导”的重大政治论断,并把它作为新时代“党的建设”总要求的首要观点、坚持和发展中国特色社会主义“基本方略”的第一条提出来,这是中国共产党人进行党建工作的基本指导和根本遵循。新时代,正确把握坚持和加强党的全面领导的逻辑理路至关重要,因为这是我们党与生俱来和新时代历史使命的必然要求,是我们党带领人民战胜敌人的强大法宝和克服一切困难风险的定海神针;是执政党持之以恒正风肃纪和紧锣密鼓反腐惩恶的内在需要和客观要求。     

我国农村群众性文化活动的衰落与农民社交困境

在我国传统的农耕社会,群众性的民俗活动以及亲友乡邻间节日及婚丧嫁娶时的走动往来承载着农民的社会交往,具有 强大的教育和文化整合功能。农耕社会农民之间社交纽带的本质是精神文化纽带而非经济利益纽带。近几十年,我国农村社 会格局发生显著变化,农民社交遭遇困境,群众性文化活动的衰落是重要原因,农村文化建设应该将繁荣群众性文化活动作为 着力点。     

湖湘大地才是炎帝文化的母体——兼与中华炎黄文化研究会商讨“炎帝故里”问题

湖南是原始拜火教的发源地和稻作农业的诞生地,也是炎帝族中心聚落的所在地,湖南才是炎帝文化的母体。中华炎黄研究会认为山西高平是炎帝故里的说法缺乏关键证据支持,因而难以成立。     

传统幼儿游戏在农村幼儿数学教育活动中的应用与价值

游戏是幼儿的天性,是幼儿成长发展的需要。幼儿园教育要以游戏为基本活动,寓教育于幼儿的生活、游戏活动中。农村有得天独厚的自然条件,有丰厚的传统幼儿游戏资源,将这些传统游戏应用于幼儿数学教育活动,达成幼儿数学认知目标,是将幼儿数学教育寓幼儿游戏活动路径的有益探索,在农村幼儿园现有条件下有重要的实践意义和理论价值。     

休谟与启蒙运动——基于《人性论》引言的思想史考察

当前对休谟的研究常把他和启蒙运动相隔裂.通过对休谟代表性著作《人性论》引言的分析,可以发现他和法国启蒙思想家共享认识世界的“力学模式”和实验方法,都试图将当时在英格兰兴起的“自然哲学”应用于人类境况,都致力于用对人类生活有用的经验研究所产生的新理论代替传统形而上学.同时,休谟对经验主义方法自身的局限有着更为健全的认识,主张在经验和可观察现象范围内的实验方法.这一认识在我们反思启蒙时极富价值.     

A likelihood ratio test to discriminate exponential–Poisson and gamma distributions

The exponential–Poisson (EP) distribution with scale and shape parameters β>0 and λ∈?, respectively, is a lifetime distribution obtained by mixing exponential and zero-truncated Poisson models. The EP distribution has been a good alternative to the gamma distribution for modelling lifetime, reliability and time intervals of successive natural disasters. Both EP and gamma distributions have some similarities and properties in common, for example, their densities may be strictly decreasing or unimodal, and their hazard rate functions may be decreasing, increasing or constant depending on their shape parameters. On the other hand, the EP distribution has several interesting applications based on stochastic representations involving maximum and minimum of iid exponential variables (with random sample size) which make it of distinguishable scientific importance from the gamma distribution. Given the similarities and different scientific relevance between these models, one question of interest is how to discriminate them. With this in mind, we propose a likelihood ratio test based on Cox's statistic to discriminate the EP and gamma distributions. The asymptotic distribution of the normalized logarithm of the ratio of the maximized likelihoods under two null hypotheses – data come from EP or gamma distributions – is provided. With this, we obtain the probabilities of correct selection. Hence, we propose to choose the model that maximizes the probability of correct selection (PCS). We also determinate the minimum sample size required to discriminate the EP and gamma distributions when the PCS and a given tolerance level based on some distance are before stated. A simulation study to evaluate the accuracy of the asymptotic probabilities of correct selection is also presented. The paper is motivated by two applications to real data sets.     

Inference for quantile measures of kurtosis,peakedness, and tail weight

Insight into measures of peakedness, heavy-tailedness, and kurtosis can be gained by studying Ruppert’s ratios of interquantile ranges. They are not only monotone in Horn’s measure of peakedness when applied to the central portion of the population, but also monotone in the practical tail-index of Morgenthaler and Tukey, when applied to the tails. Non-parametric confidence intervals are found for Ruppert’s ratios, and sample sizes required to obtain such intervals for a pre-specified relative width and level are provided. In addition, the empirical power of distribution-free tests for peakedness and bimodality are found for some symmetric distributions.     

Testing Wagner's Law in India: A cointegration and causality analysis

The present study empirically analyzes the validity of Wagner's Law for Indian economy. With the use of annual time series data from 1970–71 to 2013–14, all the six versions of Wagner's Law have been analyzed to test the relationship between government expenditure and gross domestic product. Wagner's Law states that the economic growth is the causative factor of the growth of the public expenditure. The study applied the unit root test and cointegration test to find the long-run relationship between government expenditure and gross domestic product. The present study employed the various econometric techniques such as unit root test, cointegration, and causality analysis for empirical analysis. The empirical analysis under study inferred mixed results of Wagner's Law for Indian economy, where four versions, namely Peacock, Gupta, Guffman, and Musgrave, found valid for Indian economy. The study concluded that the Wagner's Law is valid for the Indian economy except the Pryor and Mann Versions of the Wagner's Law.