学校早期读写训练对儿童读写成绩的影响

利用儿童家庭一学校早期语言与识字能力系列测验对每个目标儿童语言与识字能力发展进行了评定，并解释了这些测量结果与儿童学校早期语言与识字测量指标之间的关系。结果表明：(1)儿童丰富的同伴关系与词汇量、应变识字能力、下定义能力和理解力有关；(2)教师语言的丰富性有助于儿童语言与识字能力发展；(3)识字课程变量与三岁儿童的应变识字成绩和四岁儿童词汇量和故事理解有关；(4)影响儿童语言与识字能力的因素不是单一的，而是一个因素群。     

川东北非物质文化遗产保护与开发研究

近十余年来，人们对物质文化遗产的研究比较重视，对非物质文化遗产的保护和开发研究却相对滞后。尤其是川东北地区的非物质文化遗产正遭到不同程度的破坏，甚至濒临灭绝。文章分析了川东北非物质文化遗产的主要类型，并针对这一现象提出了实现其可持续发展的开发方案和保护对策。     

Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit-Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative in the Land Environment

This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI‐L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk‐reducing effectiveness of WHTI‐L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI‐L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness‐to‐pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI‐L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14–26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5–6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit‐cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.     

我国农民收入增长缓慢的原因及对策分析

我国农民收入水平相对偏低且增长缓慢，依然是当前农业和农村经济发展面临的一个突出问题。造成农民收入增长缓慢的原因是多方面的，如农业发展阶段性变化，非农产业阶段性变化，过度松散的农业生产模式，农业投入不足、资金严重短缺等。要实现农民收入的增长，必须相应地采取各种有效措施，包括加快农业产业结构的调整，大力推进农业产业化经营、加大农业和农村的投入，改善农村金融服务等。     

报业会计信息系统安全部分控制

报业会计电算化的系统安全,是报业会计信息系统的安全会计电算化的灵魂和核心,而内部控制则是保障报业会计电算化系统安全的一项重要工作。本文从报业会计电算化工作的实际出发,针对目前报业会计电算化应用的现状,结合报业会计电算化的特点和管理要求,阐述了报业会计电算化系统安全内部控制问题的必要性,并提出了如何加强报业会计电算化信息系统安全,有效进行内部控制的一些措施和办法。     

关于参数化测度（Ⅱ）

引进一类拓扑向量空间，用以描述测度的偏导。使用的工具是所谓的参数化鞅。建立了若干参数化鞅的收敛定理。     

Forced to work and liberated from work

The work-welfare nexus is essential in all social policy regimes. The question is in what situations individuals should be entitled to social welfare benefits and in which situations they should be obliged to work. Social welfare law and administrative practices define mechanisms that separate the deserving poor from people able to work. This article analyses the functions and character of these "separation mechanisms" in Sweden during three periods in history: a) in rural society in the late 19th century; b) in industrial society during the successful years of the Swedish model from World War II until the late 1970s; and c) the present, including the period of welfare retrenchment and reconsideration since the early 1980s. The conclusion is that Swedish social policy has always been strongly work-oriented, but the specific form and content of the work ethic has varied under the influence of different ideologies and handled in different social policy institutions. Under specific conditions the work line has been either generous or restrictive and it has been based on structural attempts to improve the opportunities to work as well as on attempts to strongly pressure the individual to work. The work line of today is seen as an interesting attempt to combine an effort to create good work through improved work conditions and an effort to reinforce elements of work enforcement in the social insurance system.     

浅谈网络德育的重要性

面对网络时代的到来,如何在新的时代更好地把握时代脉搏,探索新的育人之路,是学校德育工作的重大课题,更是新时期班主任必须关注的一个新的课题;培养青少年正确的信息道德观是全社会的重大责任,关键在于形成一个社会、学校、家庭、媒体各方面结合的网络道德教育体系。     

我国征地补偿制度的问题及其完善

农地征用过程中出现的种种矛盾和侵害农民合法权益的现象反映了我国现行征地补偿制度存在的主要问题——征地补偿方式违背市场基本规则、农村土地财产权受到侵犯和征地补偿方式违背帕累托最优原则。基于对现实和理论的深入分析,本文指出我国农地征用补偿应遵循地价形成规律,并努力探索集体土地流转,合理分配土地收益,同时建立起失地农民生活和就业保障机制。     

“十一五”期间江苏安全生产面临的潜在风险、主要特征及其防范对策

“安全生产风险”是指在生产过程中因安全生产隐患可能引发的,致使大面积生命财产安全遭受重大损失的灾难性社会后果,它已成为现代社会典型的“社会风险”之一。“十一五”期间,江苏安全生产仍面临危险化学品灾害、人员密集场所特大事故及道路桥梁安全隐患三大潜在风险的挑战。江苏安全生产潜在风险具有分布行业的差异性、表现形式的多样性、诱发原因的趋同性、识别信号的隐蔽性、防范要求的系统性等主要特征。防范安全生产风险应在实施“科学发展”战略、深化专项整治、加强源头治理、建立健全安全生产控制指标体系与安全生产激励约束机制等方面制定相应对策。