美国、中国与朝鲜停战谈判中的战俘遣返问题

在1951年6月至1953年7月的朝鲜停战谈判中，战俘遣返问题是谈判双方争论最为激烈、耗时最长的议题。美国出于冷战需要，拒不同意遣返所有被俘朝中人员；而朝中方面则依据关于战俘遣返问题的日内瓦公约，要求遣返所有战俘。由于在此问题上僵持不下，致使谈判几次陷于停顿。最终，谈判双方各自做出一定让步，使得战俘遣返问题得以解决，为朝鲜停战协定的签订消除了最后也是最大的一个障碍。     

论全球气候治理中城市的角色转型——兼论中国困境与出路

从全球气候治理的1.0时期、2.0时期到3.0时期，城市逐渐实现了从“幕后参与者”到“共同引领者”的角色转型。这一转型既得益于全球治理理论在气候变化领域的延伸，更受惠于城市外交理论的推动和全球气候治理中“集体行动的困境”之驱使。就目前来看，中国城市的这一“共同引领者”角色还无法完全体现出来——不仅在隐性的“南北分割”的权力结构和发展中国家的气候治理分歧中，面临着对外发展的困境；而且在中央政府对地方政府的气候治理行动的“单向”型构造及城市的“经济发展”和“治理责任”的两难抉择中，面临着对内优化的瓶颈。针对这些问题，中国可以采取“两条干路+六条支路”的“两轨并行”式路径来寻求合理的应对之策。国家可以在寻求发展中国家的集体身份认同之时，进一步完善国内温室气体减排政策和立法，并赋予城市以一定的自主性；而城市也可以在深化城市气候外交，加强与国家的“双向”型气候治理互动的同时，推动“韧性城市”的长效发展。     

Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Post-Earthquake Ignition Probabilities Considering Inter-Earthquake Heterogeneity

Post-earthquake fires are high-consequence events with extensive damage potential. They are also low-frequency events, so their nature remains underinvestigated. One difficulty in modeling post-earthquake ignition probabilities is reducing the model uncertainty attributed to the scarce source data. The data scarcity problem has been resolved by pooling the data indiscriminately collected from multiple earthquakes. However, this approach neglects the inter-earthquake heterogeneity in the regional and seasonal characteristics, which is indispensable for risk assessment of future post-earthquake fires. Thus, the present study analyzes the post-earthquake ignition probabilities of five major earthquakes in Japan from 1995 to 2016 (1995 Kobe, 2003 Tokachi-oki, 2004 Niigata–Chuetsu, 2011 Tohoku, and 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes) by a hierarchical Bayesian approach. As the ignition causes of earthquakes share a certain commonality, common prior distributions were assigned to the parameters, and samples were drawn from the target posterior distribution of the parameters by a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The results of the hierarchical model were comparatively analyzed with those of pooled and independent models. Although the pooled and hierarchical models were both robust in comparison with the independent model, the pooled model underestimated the ignition probabilities of earthquakes with few data samples. Among the tested models, the hierarchical model was least affected by the source-to-source variability in the data. The heterogeneity of post-earthquake ignitions with different regional and seasonal characteristics has long been desired in the modeling of post-earthquake ignition probabilities but has not been properly considered in the existing approaches. The presented hierarchical Bayesian approach provides a systematic and rational framework to effectively cope with this problem, which consequently enhances the statistical reliability and stability of estimating post-earthquake ignition probabilities.     

论数字货币的私法性质——以日本Bitcoin.Cafe数字货币交易所破产案为中心

数字货币，是一种具有财产性价值属性的电磁记录型数据。数字货币在其依存的区块链体系中所彰显的与不特定者之间的支付对价性、与法定货币之间的互换性、使用电子信息处理系统进行转移的在线转移性等特点，得以从数据说的角度，将其作为一种数据性财产权在现行法律框架内对其私法性质进行讨论。有鉴于我国民法总则已将数据纳入保护客体的范畴，数字货币作为数据之一种，理应成为一种新型法律客体，在得到法律理论支撑的基础上获得保护。     

金诗学唐的历程

金代诗歌在受苏轼等宋代诗人的影响之外 ,也受到唐诗的浸润。本文依据金诗发展变化的自身情况 ,考察了金诗学唐的历程。文中将金诗学唐分为金初“借才异代”时期、“国朝文派”时期、金代后期等三个阶段 ,做了比较详细的论述 ,从一个方面展示了金诗发展的轨迹 ,揭示了金诗的某些重要特点 ,对于我们深入地认识金诗是有裨益的     

Frontier spaces of vulnerability: Regional change,urbanization, drought and fire hazard in Santarém,Pará, Brazil

Fire hazard is a mounting concern in tropical rainforests of the Brazilian Amazon and has raised awareness within the science community of the links between agricultural fire use, drought and accidental fire. As a result, fire is being addressed as a crisis event with mitigation focused on those who light fires, particularly smallholder agriculturalists. Little attention is paid to the historical and ongoing ways in which Amazon landscapes and peoples have been made more susceptible to fire. Frontier regions of the Brazilian Amazon serve a variety of functions within the larger Brazilian society, including as extractive reserves for economic development, as social safety valves to reduce population pressures, and as areas to support urban regional integration. Each of these functions has impacted frontier environments in ways that create more flammable landscapes and/or shape the vulnerability of people to fire hazard. This paper uses a case study inthe Brazilian Lower Amazon to understand how vulnerability to fire hazard develops. It argues that if fire mitigation remains centered on fire as a crisis event, an understanding of what constitutes frontier spaces of vulnerability, both in landscape and in populations, will be limited.     

集中优势发展重庆电子信息产业

在分析重庆市电子信息设备制造业现状、发展的有利与不利因素以及国内外发展态势的基础上对重庆(?)子信息产业的发展提出了九条对策建议。     

三国时期西部农业开发述论

三国时期 ,曹魏控制西北 ,蜀汉占据西南 ,两国主要在西部地区争战 ,粮草供给成为决定胜负的关键因素 ,为此双方都采取了恢复和发展粮食生产的措施。曹魏在西部一些适宜农业的战略要地大兴屯田 ,开发关陇、稳定河西 ,每年收获大量谷物供给军粮 ,以守为攻 ,迎战蜀军 ;蜀汉占据西南之后 ,诸葛亮注意处理好民族关系 ,发挥当地的农业资源优势 ,劝农积谷。为了解决北伐运粮的困难 ,还在汉中及渭水南岸一些地区设置少量屯田。不同的农业开发措施与双方的治乱胜败有很大关系。     

中国早期共产主义者对党建思想的探索

早期共产主义者学习和利用马列主义政党学说的基本原理来解决在中国建立政党的过程中遇到的具体问题,提出为什么要建立政党、如何建立和建设政党等党建根本问题。     

谈新教师的角色投入

新教师要树立正确的角色意识 ,培养深厚的角色情感 ,锻炼角色耐受挫折的能力 ,养成角色的文明行为习惯 ,加强角色的反思和更新 ,以促进角色的成熟和发展