Finite nonparametric grach model for foreign exchange volatility

GARCH model has been commonly used to describe the volatility of foreign exchange returns, which typically depends on returns many lags before, While the GARCH model provides a simple geometric decaying structure for persistence in time, it restricts tiie impact of variables to Quadratic functions. A finite nonparametric GARCH model is proposed that allows the variables' impact to be a smooth function of any form. A direct local polynomial estimation method for this finite GARCH model is proposed based on results on proportional additive model, and is applied to the German Mark (DEM)/US Dollar (USD) daily returns data. Estimators uf both the decaying rate and the impact function are obtained. Diagnostics show satisfactory out-of-sampie prediction based on the proposed model, which helps to better understand the dynamics of foreign exchange volatility.     

Estimating the Structure of Agricultural Investment: A Stochastic- Coefficients Approach

Two approaches, a flexibie-accelerator model and a stochastic-coefficients alternative, are used to estimate the structure of aggregate agricultural investment. Structural estimates of the adjustment rates for each model differ. The stochastic-coefficients model, however, performs better in out-of-sample forecasting.     

基尼系数和泰尔熵指标的分解分析比较——以云南省17个少数民族地区的收入差距为例

基尼系数和泰尔熵指标都是衡量不平等性的重要指标,特别是它们的分解能进一步对不平等性进行因素分析。本文阐述了这两种指标对不平等性的刻画,并对它们的分解作了进一步的分析,最后结合同一组数据进行了实证比较分析。     

Analysis of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Maternal Cohort Study: the Discordant Case–Control Pairs

The progeny of the affected and non-affected dams in the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) cohort study were paired in terms of their farm of origin and approximate date of birth. This paper presents an exact logistic regression analysis that avoids modelling the differences between the pairs and so analyses only the discordant pairs. There is some evidence that the pairs in which the affected animal was born to the affected dam tend to be those in which the onset of BSE in the affected dam preceded or occurred soon after the calving. This suggests some occurrence of maternal transmission.     

构建和谐社会中的收入分配问题

当前我国社会收入分配问题的症结不是在于基尼系数所表达的分配结果不均,而是在于机会不平等的过程中产生的分配不公。能否处理好不同范畴的收入分配问题,特别是因滥用公共权力引起的社会分配不公,则关系到改革、发展、稳定的大局。社会需要通过改革有效调整已经形成的社会收入分配格局,使之能够朝着公平、正义的方向演变,这是构建和谐社会中亟待解决的关键问题之一。     

Is the Way Young People Drive a Reflection of the Way Their Parents Drive? An Econometric Study of the Relation Between Parental Risk and Their Children's Risk

This article aims to investigate parental influence on high-risk behavior by young people. Although research on the topic of perception of risk demonstrates that it is socially constructed, the role of the family in this construction has rarely been studied. Using a French national survey of more than 1,200 young drivers between the ages of 18 and 25, and their parents, we attempt to understand the transmission of risk within families. Our econometric study shows that parents influence both the practices and representations of their children. When parental norms and values are transmitted, they are by no means accepted in a wholly passive way. Indeed, the parental model is in competition with other models that originate from both inside the family (brothers and sisters) and outside it (instructors). Furthermore, parental influence decreases over time as young people become more experienced drivers and construct their own identity with regard to risk.     

嘉道之际福建霍乱的传入及其流行

清嘉庆末年至道光初年间，古典型霍乱在中国广泛流行，福建也是此次霍乱流行的一个重灾区。通过考察清朝福建的海外贸易，并分析嘉道年间福建霍乱流行的时间和区域，霍乱病极有可能是直接由东南亚国家经过海上贸易传入造成的，而不是通过广东传入福建。     

Exact average coverage probabilities and confidence coefficients of confidence intervals for discrete distributions

For a confidence interval (L(X),U(X)) of a parameter θ in one-parameter discrete distributions, the coverage probability is a variable function of θ. The confidence coefficient is the infimum of the coverage probabilities, inf  _θ P _θ (θ∈(L(X),U(X))). Since we do not know which point in the parameter space the infimum coverage probability occurs at, the exact confidence coefficients are unknown. Beside confidence coefficients, evaluation of a confidence intervals can be based on the average coverage probability. Usually, the exact average probability is also unknown and it was approximated by taking the mean of the coverage probabilities at some randomly chosen points in the parameter space. In this article, methodologies for computing the exact average coverage probabilities as well as the exact confidence coefficients of confidence intervals for one-parameter discrete distributions are proposed. With these methodologies, both exact values can be derived.     

基于“维度”的视觉信息传达设计研究

从视觉信息传达设计的概念及内涵展开研究，提出广义视觉传达设计的观点。并将数学中“维度”的思想引入广义视觉传达设计领域，建立一种“维度”观，分为别从“二维”、“三维”、“分数维”和“时一空”四个角度对视觉信息传达设计进行剖析。并用这种“维度”的思想将视觉传达设计及教育领域中的一些问题紧密联系在一起，提出对视觉信息传达设计的发展展望。     

技术的国际市场化传播探析

文章提出了技术的国际市场化传播的概念 :技术拥有者 (自然人和法人 )在市场机制的推动下 ,通过特定的传播媒体 ,有计划地将其技术成果的全部或部分传播给国外受众 (自然人和法人 ) ,变一方独有为多方共享的有偿传播活动。并在此基础上对技术的国际市场化传播的模式与特点进行了分析