The purse and the butterfly: A mathematical psychology approach to the genome in the new reality

Abstract

George Lakoff 's theory of categories renews a global epistemological struggle over who best describes reality. Color perception becomes a prototype solution as Lakoff enlists the aid of anthropology and biopsychology to challenge claims from contemporary psycholinguistics, philosophy, mathematics and psychology. The problem is that the color perception prototype upon which Lakoff bases his metaphor is flawed in the same way and for the same reasons that Lakoff attacks conventional approaches and paradigms. This thesis is tantamount to embracing and extending Lakoff 's approach, but with judicious substitutions. Most important, morphogenesis (the development of the human embryo) is substituted for Lakoff 's biopsychology of the brain. In addition to the radical breakdown of logic, language and mathematics encountered by Lakoff, irreconcilable differences between diverse paradigms and diverse cultures add to the numbers of difficult problems.

Substituting Thom's morphogenesis mathematics for conventional mathematics resolves the problems with mathematics but distorts conventional logic, language and paradigms to the point of crashing. Supplementing Lakoff 's adaptation of anthropological prototypes with Maruyama's formulation of mindscapes is the first step toward resolving irreconcilable differences between diverse paradigms and cultures. Combining Maruyama's formulation of a morphogenic paradigm with Lakoff 's approach to categories precludes distortion by incompatible paradigms. Outsourcing logic to Eastern countries is the cost effective strategy for resolving reasoning problems. Finally there is the crucial problem of ecological validity, a problem not covered by Lakoff 's cognitive psychology.

Direct observations in natural environments and mathematical models that make natural environment predictions supporting the morphogenesis paradigm resolve the problem of ecological validity. Fashion fabrics and twilight color displays falsify predictions made by the color vision prototype. Falsification of this paper will rest primarily on the paper's prediction of demographic catastrophes that are to occur as a consequence of X chromosome intelligence.     

中国巨灾保险法律制度的构建

当巨灾发生后，本应发挥作用的财产保险在灾后的赔付中缺位，这一现象引发了人们对巨灾险的思考。在发达国家，巨灾险已成为一种分散巨灾风险的常效机制，而国内巨灾险业务方始起步，法律保障制度构建也还未上路。通过对巨灾险及其法律制度的域外考察，中国现行的巨灾保险制度需要深刻的检讨，根据目前条件，中国的巨灾保险宜采用立法促进、商业保险机构担当并由政府推动的方式，通过对立法机构、政府、保险业的角色及职能进行定位、对赔付及巨灾险的运作方式进行规定，构建起中国巨灾险的运作制度和法律框架。     

基于Copula-EVT模型的巨灾再保险定价

基于巨灾损失具有厚尾分布的特征,采用POT极值模型分别估计两个保险标的的边缘分布,并用二元Copula函数刻画这两个标的的关联性,同时应用Monte Carlo模拟方法估算巨灾再保险的纯保费。通过对洪水损失数据的实证分析表明:Clayton Copula函数能较好地反映两标的间的相关结构;起赔点的设定是影响纯保费的重要因素,且起赔点按条件分位点取值更优更合理。研究结果对保险人开发多元保险标的的巨灾再保险具有重要的参考价值。     

基于突变级数法的客户关系管理能力综合评价

客户关系管理（CRM）能力是企业求得生存与发展的重要资源,是衡量企业CRM活动是否有效的关键。客观地评价企业CRM能力,有利于推断企业在未来竞争中可能的地位,也为企业准确把握自身CRM能力提供必要的数据支持,从而决定提升CRM能力的紧迫性和资源配置的有效性。依据突变级数模型建立企业CRM能力评价指标体系,以国内5家彩电企业为例,通过实证分析,对它们的CRM能力进行了评价,为企业改善和提升CRM能力提供了理论支持。     

A class of maximum-entropy multivariate distributions

This paper characterizes a class of multivariate distributions that includes the multinormal and is contained in the exponential family. The wide range of possible applications of these distributions is suggested by some of hte characteristics germane to them: First, they maximize Shannon's entropy among all distributions that have finite moments of given orders. As such, they constitute a class of distributions that includes the multinormal and some likely alternatives. Second, they can exhibit several modes, and, further-more, they do so with a relatively small number of parameters (compared to mixtures of multinormals). Third, they are the stationary distributions of certain diffusion processes. Fourth, they approximate, near the multinormal, the multivariate Pearson family. And fifth, the maximum likelihood estimators of their population moments are the sample moments. Two possible methods of estimating the distributions are studied in this paper: maximum likelihood estimation, and a fast procedure that can be used to find consistent estimators of the parameters via sample moments. A FORTTAN subroutine that implements the latter method is also provided.     

突变模型下的产品价格与品牌效应分析

市场条件下，生产和销售同类产品的多家企业市场需求变化以及企业间的相互影响，会导致同类产品供需间出现明显的非线性关系。本文则通过应用非线性突变理论，采用几何图形以及梯度图形对多参数连续变化引起的企业品牌效应、产品价格及相互影响因子间的突变关系做出了较好的解释，同时指出企业在竞争激烈的市场环境下获取竞争优势所应采取的措施。     

The Financial Management of Catastrophic Flood Risks in Emerging-Economy Countries

This article examines the potential of pre- and post-disaster instruments for funding disaster response and recovery and for creating incentives for flood loss mitigation in countries with emerging or transition economies. As a concrete case, we discuss the disaster recovery arrangements following the 1997 flood disaster in Poland. We examine the advantages and limitations of hedging instruments, which are instruments for transferring the risk to investors either through insurance or capital market-based securities. We compare these mechanisms with financing instruments whereby the government sets aside funds prior to a disaster or taps its own funding sources after the event occurs. We show how hedging instruments can be designed to create incentives for the mitigation of damage to public infrastructure using the flood proofing of a water-treatment plant on the hypothetical Topping River as an illustrative example. We conclude that hedging instruments can be an attractive alternative to financing instruments that have been traditionally used in the poorer, emerging-economy countries to fund disaster recovery. Since very poor countries are likely to have difficulty paying the price of protection prior to a disaster, we suggest that international lending institutions consider innovations for subsidizing these payments.     

两岸主流媒体关于"9·11"事件报道的比较分析--以《人民日报》、《联合报》为例

由对“9.11”事件前后海峡两岸主流媒体的有半报道的分析表明，中国大陆媒体立足于和政府立场的高度一致,注重报道和反映本国的国际地位和影响,台湾地区媒体则用商业化的方式追求新闻可读性,注意捕捉戏剧性细节;两岸差别是不同的新闻体制和媒介运作模式在国际突发事件报道领域的投射。     

基于风险定价框架的巨灾债券定价模型比较研究

LFC模型、Wang两因素模型和Christofides模型是风险定价框架下的三个典型巨灾债券定价模型。通过对这三个典型巨灾债券定价模型进行比较研究后,我们认为,在未来的巨灾债券定价过程中,可以在过去交易的加权平均的风险厌恶水平ρ值的基础上进行调整,利用Christofides模型得到一个大致的价格范围。     

我国农房保险与巨灾保险的衔接问题

通过对相关政策法规的分析,发现我国农房保险制度与以城乡居民住宅地震巨灾保险为代表的巨灾保险制度在保障民生、政府主导、市场运作、保险标的、基础保障等方面存在着一定的相似性,在受益对象、承保风险、保险金额、费率厘定、保险方式、风险转移、责任分担等方面也存在差异性,二者将在一段时期内并存。进一步探讨农房保险未来发展趋势及其与城乡居民住宅地震巨灾保险在功能重叠、财政压力、民众选择等方面可能产生的冲突,从制度安排、功能设置、政策引导指明其衔接必然性,最后从责任范围、保费补贴、人身保险、管理机构等方面探讨了其衔接难点和并轨途径。