关于推进我国巨灾债券的研究

我国是巨灾损失最严重的国家之一,巨灾风险的潜在压力巨大,推进巨灾债券的开展具有积极意义。在我国具体操作环境下,开展巨灾债券所面临的现实问题主要包括市场、技术、法律监管、税收等。因此,"营造环境、建立指数体系、做好发行试点、稳步推进",是我国发展巨灾债券的思路。     

基于风险定价框架的巨灾债券定价模型比较研究

LFC模型、Wang两因素模型和Christofides模型是风险定价框架下的三个典型巨灾债券定价模型。通过对这三个典型巨灾债券定价模型进行比较研究后,我们认为,在未来的巨灾债券定价过程中,可以在过去交易的加权平均的风险厌恶水平ρ值的基础上进行调整,利用Christofides模型得到一个大致的价格范围。     

两岸主流媒体关于"9·11"事件报道的比较分析--以《人民日报》、《联合报》为例

由对“9.11”事件前后海峡两岸主流媒体的有半报道的分析表明，中国大陆媒体立足于和政府立场的高度一致,注重报道和反映本国的国际地位和影响,台湾地区媒体则用商业化的方式追求新闻可读性,注意捕捉戏剧性细节;两岸差别是不同的新闻体制和媒介运作模式在国际突发事件报道领域的投射。     

A Critical Look at Risk Assessments for Global Catastrophes

Recent articles by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish small bounds on the risk of a "killer strangelet" catastrophe scenario in the RHIC and ALICE collider experiments. The case for the safety of the experiments set out by BJSW does not rely solely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling to firmly exclude any possibility of catastrophe. Nonetheless, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) suggested that these empirical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expectation value-a good measure, according to standard risk analysis arguments. For example, DDH's main bound, p(catastrophe) < 2 x 10(-8), implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120; BJSW's most conservative bound implies the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 60,000. This article reappraises the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. For example, it is noted that, even if highly risk-tolerant assumptions are made and no value is placed on the lives of future generations, a catastrophe risk no higher than approximately 10(-15) per year would be required for consistency with established policy for radiation hazard risk minimization. Allowing for risk aversion and for future lives, a respectable case can be made for requiring a bound many orders of magnitude smaller. In summary, the costs of small risks of catastrophe have been significantly underestimated by BJSW (initially), by DDH, and by other commentators. Future policy on catastrophe risks would be more rational, and more deserving of public trust, if acceptable risk bounds were generally agreed upon ahead of time and if serious research on whether those bounds could indeed be guaranteed was carried out well in advance of any hypothetically risky experiment, with the relevant debates involving experts with no stake in the experiments under consideration.     

我国巨灾保险立法模式探讨

巨灾保险制度的建立必须以巨灾保险法律制度为基础,探讨适合我国的巨灾保险立法模式是巨灾保险法律制度建设首先必须解决的问题之一.本文通过考察世界各国巨灾保险立法模式的类型,借鉴巨灾保险先行国家和地区的成功经验,依据我国现阶段的国情和法治状况,总结出我国巨灾保险立法模式比较可行的选择是采用专项型立法模式,首先针对地震风险制定<地震保险法>,在此基础上逐步建立针对其他灾种的巨灾保险法律制度.     

“丝绸之路经济带”背景下哈萨克斯坦投资风险测度及预警研究

通过建立投资风险突变模型,构建七级投资风险预警表,对哈萨克斯坦国内1995—2014年的投资风险进行测度,研究结果认为:2008年以后哈萨克斯坦投资风险不断上升,其中2008年、2010年、2014年投资风险均达到突变级别。采用GM(1,1)模型和ARMA模型对2015-2017年哈萨克斯坦投资风险指标进行组合预测,并对预测结果进行预警分析,结果显示:2015年、2016年哈萨克斯坦综合投资风险较2014年有所下降,但2017年投资综合风险达到六级预警线以上,存在较大投资风险。     

巨灾情景下我国政府不间断运行的关键职能探析

基于我国政府四大基本职能，以巨灾发生后需要政府有效组织救灾和维护基本社会秩序为依据，构建了巨灾情景下政府不间断运行的具体职能；并以此为基础，以职能的重要性、性能缺失造成后果的严重性、临界时间判断依据，进一步划分巨灾情景下的政府关键职能，并利用层次分析法确定政府关键职能的优先顺序。     

Legocentrism

Among discernable trends in contemporary architecture, a salient one continues to be what might be called a “building-block” aesthetic. Despite radical increases in the efficiency of buildings – from the digital modeling that makes new modes of structural engineering possible to the LEED certificates that ratify credentials of environmental soundness – we seem, in the midst of these advances, to be witnessing an almost regressive aesthetic in the design of the buildings themselves. But what are the sources, meanings, and prospects for a contemporary look that appears to court nostalgia? Of course, as with so many things, we may be unable to see what lies before us: that these structures do, in fact, resemble a child’s playthings. Yet, to what end? In this essay, I take a closer look at some of these building-block buildings with an eye toward assessing and suggesting a reading of their significance.     

巨灾下乡村基层领导力研究

研究领导力问题应当与具体的外部情景和组织环境相结合。通过分析四川省绵阳市9个受灾县238个乡镇的党委书记(或乡镇长)的访谈资料发现,由于存在巨灾情景和乡镇制度环境双重因素的挑战,乡村基层对汶川地震应急响应的成效一定程度上取决于乡村基层干部的领导力;构建了包括感知能力、动员能力、执行能力、决策能力在内的乡村基层应对巨灾的领导力模型,提出加强乡村基层领导力建设是中国广大乡村,特别是中西部乡村地区,巨灾应急准备的一项重要措施。     

从法律视角看巨灾保险制度的构建

巨灾保险制度作为一种风险分散机制,在帮助被保人逃离困境、化解巨灾风险、实现社会和谐过程中,具有十分重要的现实意义。境外巨灾保险法律制度已相对完善,其制度框架和内容设计都给了我们很大的启示。从法律的视角构想我国巨灾保险法律制度,以期初步设计适合我国国情的巨灾保险法律制度。