中美经贸关系现状及经济发展差距的基本判断

2017年以来,中美两国之间发生了激烈的经贸摩擦,对两国宏观经济和社会福利产生一定的负面影响。中国社会科学院工业经济研究所与《中国经济学人》(China Economist)杂志从中美经贸关系现状、中美经贸摩擦影响、中美两国经济发展差距、美国总统大选等角度分析中国经济学人对中美经贸关系及经济发展差距的认知和判断。调查发现,经济学人认为虽然中美经贸摩擦短时间内难以消除,但中美两国的经济互补性仍很强,贸易增长空间较大,未来发展方向一定是合作与竞争并有。经济学人预判,今后20年中美两国的经济增速分别为4.8%和2.1%,中国将于2034年追平美国经济总量,将于2043年追平美国制造业总体技术水平,将于2072年追平美国人均GDP,实现赶超。     

An Evaluation of Stimulus Preference Assessment Methodology in Organizational Behavior Management

The organizational behavior management literature has yielded few stimulus preference assessment methodologies for use with employees. The current investigation compared three preference assessments (ranking, survey, and multiple stimulus without replacement procedures) found in the organizational behavior management literature for their ability to predict reinforcers for direct care staff members’ behavior. In the first experiment all assessments were effective for predicting reinforcers, but the results were limited by a lack of control items in the assessment. In the second experiment the survey and ranking assessments both proved to be effective for identifying reinforcers and neutral or ineffective stimuli. Implications of these results and directions for future research are discussed.     

Barriers to Managing Coronary Artery Disease Among Older Women

Numerous barriers to managing coronary artery disease (CAD) among older women are reported in the literature; however, few studies adjust for demographic and health status differences. A survey assessing barriers and other factors was distributed to a stratified random sampling of older women with CAD. Factor analysis and multiple logistic regression procedures were used to estimate the impact of these issues on receiving a CAD-related office visit. The most problematic barriers included denial and low health literacy. Efforts to promote patient awareness of heart health and better communication between patients and clinicians may alleviate these barriers.     

The Gender Gap in Orgasms: Survey Data from a Mid-Sized Canadian City

Objective: Previous research has established a gap in orgasm frequency between men and women. This study investigates explanations for the gender gap in orgasm. Methods: Crosstab analysis and logistic regression are used to examine the gender gap in orgasms from one Canadian city: Hamilton, Ontario (N = 194). Results: We find a strong association between women’s orgasms and the type of sexual behavior in which partners engage. Women who receive oral sex are more likely to reach orgasm. Conclusion: Sexual practices focused on clitoral stimulation are important to reducing the gender gap in orgasms.     

Small area estimation strategies for large population surveys: a comparison of design and model-based methods

Small area estimation (SAE) concerns with how to reliably estimate population quantities of interest when some areas or domains have very limited samples. This is an important issue in large population surveys, because the geographical areas or groups with only small samples or even no samples are often of interest to researchers and policy-makers. For example, large population health surveys, such as Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System and Ohio Mecaid Assessment Survey (OMAS), are regularly conducted for monitoring insurance coverage and healthcare utilization. Classic approaches usually provide accurate estimators at the state level or large geographical region level, but they fail to provide reliable estimators for many rural counties where the samples are sparse. Moreover, a systematic evaluation of the performances of the SAE methods in real-world setting is lacking in the literature. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with constraints on the parameter space and show that it provides superior estimators for county-level adult uninsured rates in Ohio based on the 2012 OMAS data. Furthermore, we perform extensive simulation studies to compare our methods with a collection of common SAE strategies, including direct estimators, synthetic estimators, composite estimators, and Datta GS, Ghosh M, Steorts R, Maples J.'s [Bayesian benchmarking with applications to small area estimation. Test 2011;20(3):574–588] Bayesian hierarchical model-based estimators. To set a fair basis for comparison, we generate our simulation data with characteristics mimicking the real OMAS data, so that neither model-based nor design-based strategies use the true model specification. The estimators based on our proposed model are shown to outperform other estimators for small areas in both simulation study and real data analysis.     

Planners’ Perceptions of Why Canadian Communities Have Too Many Plans

A survey of Canadian planners explored perceptions about factors contributing to the growing number of plans communities have adopted recently. The results suggest that practitioners see themselves as responding to current community concerns, as well as to requirements imposed by higher levels of government. Neoliberal practices that force compliance with accountability frameworks to enable transfer payments increase demands for new plans. Professional practices within planning have encouraged specialization—in fields such as urban design—that often leads to plan-making activities. With many plans to coordinate, and limited staff resources and time available, practitioners face increasing implementation challenges.     

Adjustment for nonresponse with variables from different sources: Bias correction and precision loss,with application to the Swiss European Social Survey 2012

ABSTRACT

Adjustment for nonresponse should reduce the nonresponse bias without decreasing the precision of the estimates. Adjustment for nonresponses are commonly based on socio-demographic variables, although these variables may be poorly correlated with response propensities and with variables of interest. Such variables nevertheless have the advantage of being available for all sample units, whether or not they are participating in the survey. Alternatively, adjustment for nonresponse can be obtained from a follow-up survey aimed at sample units which did not participate in the survey and from which the variables are designed to be correlated with response propensities. However, information collected through these follow-up surveys is not available for people in the sample who participated neither in the survey nor in its nonresponse follow-up. These two sets of variables when used in a nonresponse model for the Swiss European Social Survey 2012 differ only slightly with regard to their effect on bias correction and on the precision of estimates. The variables from the follow-up are performing slightly better. In both cases, the adjustment for nonresponse performs poorly.     

The role of social capital in the job-related regional mobility decisions of unemployed individuals

Social capital is an important factor in interregional mobility. Although most prior research has focused on its role in the job-finding process, this study investigates the function of social networks and the social capital embedded therein after an interregional job offer has been received. This subject is particularly important for the unemployed, who should be able to exploit a mobility strategy to re-enter the labour market. Unemployed persons rely on their social networks to cope with joblessness, but there is evidence that social contexts can also act as mobility traps for this group (Windzio, 2004). We examine whether the unemployed weight social capital in a unique manner when making decisions regarding mobility.To investigate these issues, we combine a factorial survey module (FSM) with data from the German “Labour market and social security” (PASS) panel study to generate representative samples of both unemployed and employed persons with a randomised mobility stimulus in the form of hypothetical interregional job offers. Our results reveal the mobilising effects of exposure to conflict-laden relationships with the social network and the household. These are particularly pronounced for unemployed persons, highlighting the importance of factors that influence decision making about mobility beyond simple economic considerations.