社会状态估计的随机优势方法及可分解方法

近年发展起来的对社会状态进行比较的随机优势方法,以及研究状态决定的可分解方法及多因素回归分析方法,为我们提供了充足的实用工具来对社会状态进行评估,可为决策制定者充分掌握决策对象的经济发展水平及福利水平,以选择正确的发展道路和效率目标提供决策依据。尽管对社会状态估计方法的研究仍然存在相当多的困难,但近年来在这方面已经取得的成果表明未来的道路是光明的。     

Prospect theory for continuous distributions

We extend the original form of prospect theory by Kahneman and Tversky from finite lotteries to arbitrary probability distributions, using an approximation method based on weak-⋆ convergence. The resulting formula is computationally easier than the corresponding formula for cumulative prospect theory and makes it possible to use prospect theory in future applications in economics and finance. Moreover, we suggest a method how to incorporate a crucial step of the “editing phase” into prospect theory and to remove in this way the discontinuity of the original model.

FDI进入方式与企业生产率——非参数分析方法

采用1998-2007年中国制造业外商投资企业的非平衡面板数据,在估计企业全要素生产率的基础上,采用一阶随机占优方法比较分析了外商独资企业与中外合资企业全要素生产率的差异。研究发现,中国外商独资企业的生产率在总体上并不比中外合资企业高,但随着跨国公司母国与中国制度特别是经济制度的差距逐渐缩小,外商独资企业的生产率不断提高;随着FDI进入时间的推移,外商独资企业逐渐克服进入初期的不利因素,其生产率明显高于中外合资企业;大中型中外合资企业可能由于能较好地适应中国的文化、管理特点以及经营协同效应的存在,其生产率明显高于大中型外商独资企业。     

Information and capacities

Most economists consider that the cases of negative information value that non-Bayesian decision makers seem to exhibit, clearly show that these models are not models representing rational behaviour. We consider this issue for Choquet Expected Utility maximizers in a simple framework, that is the problem of choosing on which event to bet. First, we find a necessary condition to prevent negative information vlaue that we call Separative Monotonicity. This is a weaker condition than Savage Sure thing Principle and it appears that necessity and possibility measures satisfy it and that we cand find conditioning rules such that the information value is always positive. In a second part, we question the way information value is usually measured and suggest that negative information values are merely resulting from an inadequate formula. Yet, we suggest to impose what appears as a weaker requirement, that is, the betting strategy should not be Statistically Dominated. We show for classical updating rules applied to belief functions that this requirement is violated. We consider a class of conditioning rules and exhibit a necessary and sufficient condition in order to satisfy the Statistical Dominance criterion in the case of belief functions. Received: November 2000; revised version: July 2001     

Can good news lead to a more pessimistic choice of action?

Adapting a definition introduced by Milgrom (1981) we say that a signal about the environment is good news relative to some initial beliefs if the posterior beliefs dominate the initial beliefs in the sense of first-order stochastic dominance (the assumption being that higher values of the parameter representing the environment mean better environments). We give an example where good news leads to the adoption of a more pessimistic course of action (we say that action a ₁, reveals greater pessimism than action a ₂, if it gives higher payoff in bad environments and lower payoff in good environments). We then give sufficient conditions for a signal not to induce a more pessimistic choice of action.A first version of this paper was written when the author was Heyworth Research Fellow at Nuffield College, Oxford, and presented at the Second Annual Congress of the European Economic Association (Copenhagen, August 1987). The author is grateful to an anonymous referee for helpful comments.     

Ranking Income Distributions According to Equality of Opportunity

According to the opportunity egalitarian ethics, economic inequalities due to factors beyond the individual responsibility are inequitable and to be compensated by society, whereas inequalities due to personal responsibility are equitable and not to be compensated. In this paper we derive welfare and inequality criteria that respect this principle of justice. We characterize axiomatically classes of opportunity egalitarian social evaluation functions. Then, by requiring unanimous agreement among such classes, we provide simple distributional conditions to rank income distributions. These criteria extend the Lorenz and generalized Lorenz partial orderings, commonly used in the unidimensional case of income distributions, to the current context of equality of opportunity.     

分块广义对角占优矩阵的条件

根据块对角占优和广义块对角占优矩阵的概念,在原有点H矩阵的基础上,应用分块技术,研究给出了分块广义对角占优矩阵的一个简捷实用的充分条件和一个必要条件,推广了相应文献的结果,进一步补充和完善了块对角占优矩阵的理论     

迭代矩阵特征值模的界

在用迭代法解线性方程组时,迭代矩阵的谱半径估计在迭代法的收敛性分析中起着重要的作用。该文对一类Baily-Crabtree型对角占优矩阵M,给出了迭代矩阵M?1N的特征值模的上下界估计。并以此为基础,在一定条件下给出了当M是α?严格对角占优矩阵时的M?1N的特征值模的上下界估计。并以具体例子说明了所得结果的有效性。     

广义对角占优矩阵的充分条件

根据不可约对角占优、具非零元素链对角占优与广义对角占优矩阵等概念,利用比较矩阵,研究了广义对角占优矩阵的判定, 用简捷的方法,给出了新的判定定理。推广了相应文献的结果,进一步补充和完善了对角占优矩阵的理论。     

Gender Differences in Preschool Aggression During Free Play and Structured Interactions: An Observational Study

We observed 48 children from rural preschools (M=64 months old) in two different social contexts to test hypotheses about the type (relational, physical, verbal, nonverbal), contextual independence, and sociometry of girls’ and boys’ aggressive tactics. We predicted and generally found that (1) girls displayed more relational aggression than boys while boys displayed more physical and verbal aggression than girls, and that children received more physical and verbal aggression from male peers, and tended to receive more relational aggression from female peers, (2) behavioral observations of aggression corresponded with teacher reports of children's aggressive styles, (3) aggression observed during free play predicted children's aggressive styles in a structured setting at both the group and individual levels, and (4) aggressive tactics were associated with projected sociometric characteristics (dominance and peer acceptance).