基于Petri网的微博网络信息传播模型

微博网络中的信息传播模型是分析用户行为，找出传播路径，确定领袖人物，发现舆情热点等研究的基础。虽然多种不同角度的信息传播模型已经得到广泛研究，但缺乏对信息动态传播过程的直观描述。本文基于Petri网的结构和特征，针对微博网络信息传播过程，提出了一种简单直观的描述模型，该模型首先对微博网络的信息动态传播过程中的对象进行结构化描述。本文根据微博网络的用户结构关系，并利用Petri网的相关理论，形式化解释和定义信息传播基本对象，从而更加直接描述了微博网络中的转发、评论、回复等多种用户行为。在此基础上，本文利用Petri网能够描述信息流动问题的特征，结合颜色Petri网和时延Petri网，从Petri网系统的角度表示信息动态传播路径，并研究网络的动态性质和传播条件，使得信息传播模型更加真实地模拟信息传播情况。最后本文分析信息传播算例和新浪微博真实数据实验，验证了模型的有效性和可行性，为舆情态势分析以及用户行为的研究提供帮助和支持，同时也为其它社交网络信息传播的用户行为描述提供了新的思路。     

新世纪冯至《十四行集》研究的回顾与反思

检视新世纪冯至《十四行集》的研究，从内外结合的版本研究、现代解诗学的实践、审美现代性范式以及比较研究四个方面，回顾近十多年研究成果，辨析和反思研究观念与研究方法，展望《十四行集》研究的可能学术增长点。     

Design and implementation methodology based on Petri net formalism of flexible manufacturing systems control

This paper presents an aided design methodology of flexible manufacturing system control with a view to industrial implementation. The approach considered through a modelling phase, the a validation phase by simulation and finally a distributed implementation phase. In the modelling phase, based on the Petri net formalism, we demonstrate the hierarchical aspect which separates the part flow control and the product resource control. In addition, we emphasize generic aspects which allow us to use an object-oriented approach. These aspects and the set of modelled objects are directly used in the simulation and production phases after an automatic translation in an implementation language (ADA in our case). In consequence, the distributed location for those two phases is well facilitated from the viewpoint of the approach used.     

正态分布随机Petri网的串并行结构化简

基于正态分布随机Petri网的串行和并行两种基本结构的化简开展研究,推导出在正态分布广义随机Petri网中化简串行模型的等价理论公式,即合成执行时间为各个变迁的执行时间之和,仍服从正态分布,并且合成均值等于所有变迁执行时间的均值之和,合成标准偏差等于所有变迁执行时间标准偏差的方和根。还提出了并行模型的模拟仿真计算方法,分析了两个并行变迁独立不同分布时的情况,并给出了近似估算公式,在公式中,均值较大的变迁权重较大。     

Using Bayesian Networks to Model Expected and Unexpected Operational Losses

This report describes the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) to model statistical loss distributions in financial operational risk scenarios. Its focus is on modeling "long" tail, or unexpected, loss events using mixtures of appropriate loss frequency and severity distributions where these mixtures are conditioned on causal variables that model the capability or effectiveness of the underlying controls process. The use of causal modeling is discussed from the perspective of exploiting local expertise about process reliability and formally connecting this knowledge to actual or hypothetical statistical phenomena resulting from the process. This brings the benefit of supplementing sparse data with expert judgment and transforming qualitative knowledge about the process into quantitative predictions. We conclude that BNs can help combine qualitative data from experts and quantitative data from historical loss databases in a principled way and as such they go some way in meeting the requirements of the draft Basel II Accord (Basel, 2004) for an advanced measurement approach (AMA).     

跨组织工作流建模及分析研究述评

从组织间工作流的层面对跨组织工作流建模的已有研究进行分类、总结和评价.然后,从定性分析和定量分析2个角度综述了工作流分析的相关研究.最后,总结了该领域研究的管理实践意义,并针对现有研究存在的不足,探讨了未来的研究趋势和发展方向.     

基于随机Petri网的生产提前期牛鞭效应测度研究

利用随机Petri网结合三角模糊参数,对产品生产的三工艺阶段生产周期的波动进行测定,得出前工艺阶段生产周期的波动造成后工艺阶段生产周期更大的波动,且波动逐级传递。证实了生产提前期也具有类似供应链中的牛鞭效应的现象,对不确定因素导致生产周期波动的测度提供了一种新的思路和方法。     

Who Lacks Support and Why? An Examination of Mothers' Personal Safety Nets

We use data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 12,140 person-waves) to identify characteristics associated with mothers' having or lacking "personal safety net" support from family and friends. We focus on characteristics that are likely to increase the importance of having support available but may also interfere with the maintenance of supportive ties: poverty, poor physical and mental health, and challenging child rearing responsibilities. By capitalizing on distinctions among these types of personal disadvantages and among types of personal safety nets (financial, housing, child care, and emotional), we help to explain why personal disadvantages are associated with weaker support. Our paper contributes to the literature emphasizing the importance of reciprocity in support relationships and introduces the idea that families that are more difficult to help will have less support available.     

供应链的杠杆管理模式及模糊思考

现代企业对供应链的管理日益重要。供应链包括顾客需求所直接或间接涉及的所有环节。供应链管理需要把原先被认为是分开的供应过程的各个部分联合起来。对供应链的价值网管理模式进行了论述,提出了供应链的杠杆管理模式,强调了企业目标的重要性和顾客需求的核心地位,并且进行了模糊思考。     

时间触发CAN总线系统的建模与性能分析

时间触发机制的引入提高了CAN总线对实时周期性消息的处理能力,然而系统中的非周期性消息具有迸发性、不可预知性和类型复杂的特点,对其传输性能的分析较为困难。该文利用确定随机Petri网理论建立了时间触发CAN总线系统的模型,通过仿真对异步相中非周期性消息传输进行吞吐量和平均延时等性能分析,得出了相应的量化规律,其结论对时间触发CAN总线系统的分析与设计具有指导意义。