科技保险的困境—一个制度供求非均衡分析

现阶段，我国步入了创新驱动引领升级的关键时期，科技创新受到了整个社会的空前重视。科技保险作为分散和转移科技风险的重要手段，可以为科技创新提供有力的风险保障。目前，我国科技保险工作已经进入全面推广阶段，虽然取得了一定的成效，但整体运行并不理想，科技企业参保率低，科技保险缺失严重。究其原因，主要在于制度供给不能适应科技企业对科技保险的需求，科技保险制度供求非均衡，在现行的科技保险制度下积聚着大量的潜在利润，而这些潜在利润既是科技保险制度非均衡的原因，又是科技保险制度创新的动力。     

Separating psychological momentum from strategic momentum: Evidence from men’s professional tennis

In dynamic contests, strategic momentum and psychological momentum potentially coexist, which makes it difficult to distinguish between the two. We employ the setting of professional tennis, which allows us to separate psychological from strategic momentum. In tennis, converting a break point potentially triggers both strategic momentum—due to a change in the relative position of the players—and psychological momentum—due to a change in the perception of the players. To distinguish between these two momentum types, we employ exogenously given interruptions. Interruptions are predicted to affect psychological momentum negatively, while leaving strategic momentum unaffected. Using 4930 game-by-game observations from 141 Grand Slam men’s single matches, we show that the breaking players’ probability of winning a game increases after converting a break point, which provides evidence for momentum. Moreover, we show that this momentum effect is negatively affected by an interruption. Thus, psychological momentum seems to be the main trigger leading to a performance increase after a converted break point.     

Parenting Style,Child Emotion Regulation and Behavioral Problems: The Moderating Role of Cultural Values in Australia and Indonesia

Abstract

Research has shown that the congruence of parenting styles with cultural values, rather than parenting styles alone, impacts child adjustment. This study examined if parents’ cultural values moderate the relationships between parenting styles and child outcomes across both an individualist culture (Australia) and a collectivist culture (Indonesia). Three hundred and eighty-seven parents of 2–10-year-old children from both countries reported their parenting styles, the importance of the collectivistic values (security, conformity, and tradition), and their child's emotion regulation and behavioral problems. In both countries, authoritative parenting was associated with higher child emotion regulation and lower levels of behavioral problems, and authoritarian parenting was associated with lower child emotion regulation and higher levels of behavioral problems. Although cultural values did not moderate the relationship between authoritarian parenting and child adjustment, in both countries greater importance placed on tradition attenuated the positive effect of authoritative parenting on child outcomes.     

复杂性科学及其在经济领域中的资助和研究进展

统计和分析了国家自然科学基金委员会(以下简称基金委) 管理科学部自 1986 年以来对复杂性科学及其在经济领域中相关研究的资助情况，同时，对复杂性科学及其与经济科学融合所产生的复杂经济学等研究进行了梳理，系统总结和分析了国内外相关研究的进展和发展趋势，以期为该领域的研究者提供参考和启示，促进复杂系统管理的研究，进而为管理科学部的十四五学科战略规划提供参考，为国家经济治理体系的完善等提供理论储备．     

Sustainable consumption and third-party certification labels: Consumers’ perceptions and reactions

Compared with conventional products, sustainable products continue to attract relatively lower market shares. To increase customer acceptance, many sustainable products feature third-party certification labels (TPCL), yet it is unclear whether TPCL are effective and what processes and boundary conditions define their role in consumer decision making. Across three experimental studies, this research determines that sustainable products are characterized by credence qualities, associated with increased perceptions of risk, which negatively influence consumers' purchase intentions. Drawing on signaling theory, this study also shows that TPCL on sustainable products provide brand-like information cues that reduce the perceived risk of sustainable products. Finally, a third experimental study demonstrates that consumers must perceive TPCL as credible for them to reduce consumers’ risk perceptions.     

Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment

Previous research has evaluated public risk perception and response to a natural hazards in various settings; however, most of these studies were conducted either with a single scenario or after a natural disaster struck. To better understand the dynamic relationships among affect, risk perception, and behavioral intentions related to natural disasters, the current study implements a simulation scenario with escalating weather intensity, and includes a natural experiment allowing comparison of public response before and after a severe tornado event with extensive coverage by the national media. The current study also manipulated the display of warning information, and investigated whether the warning system display format influences public response. Results indicate that (1) affect, risk perception, and behavioral intention escalated as weather conditions deteriorated, (2) responses at previous stages predicted responses at subsequent stages of storm progression, and (3) negative affect predicted risk perception. Moreover, risk perception and behavioral intention were heightened after exposure to the media coverage of an actual tornado disaster. However, the display format manipulation did not influence behavioral responses. The current study provides insight regarding public perception of predisaster warnings and the influence of exposure to media coverage of an actual disaster event.     

Farmers’ Risk‐Based Decision Making Under Pervasive Uncertainty: Cognitive Thresholds and Hazy Hedging

Researchers in judgment and decision making have long debunked the idea that we are economically rational optimizers. However, problematic assumptions of rationality remain common in studies of agricultural economics and climate change adaptation, especially those that involve quantitative models. Recent movement toward more complex agent‐based modeling provides an opportunity to reconsider the empirical basis for farmer decision making. Here, we reconceptualize farmer decision making from the ground up, using an in situ mental models approach to analyze weather and climate risk management. We assess how large‐scale commercial grain farmers in South Africa (n = 90) coordinate decisions about weather, climate variability, and climate change with those around other environmental, agronomic, economic, political, and personal risks that they manage every day. Contrary to common simplifying assumptions, we show that these farmers tend to satisfice rather than optimize as they face intractable and multifaceted uncertainty; they make imperfect use of limited information; they are differently averse to different risks; they make decisions on multiple time horizons; they are cautious in responding to changing conditions; and their diverse risk perceptions contribute to important differences in individual behaviors. We find that they use two important nonoptimizing strategies, which we call cognitive thresholds and hazy hedging, to make practical decisions under pervasive uncertainty. These strategies, evident in farmers' simultaneous use of conservation agriculture and livestock to manage weather risks, are the messy in situ performance of naturalistic decision‐making techniques. These results may inform continued research on such behavioral tendencies in narrower lab‐ and modeling‐based studies.     

富裕社会中贫困的消除：加尔布雷思的探究及启示

贫困表现为人的基本需要得不到满足，“富裕社会”中的贫困表现为私人生产、物质生产的过剩和公共生产、精神生产的不足。加尔布雷思认为，美国“富裕社会”中贫困的原因是不平衡的“二元经济体系”，只要实行“新社会主义”，实现“计划体系”和“市场体系”的平衡，就能解决“富裕”背后的贫困问题。由于这一设想是以不改变资本主义的经济基础为前提的，所以，只能是一种治标不治本的改良。只有扬弃经济学的“传统智慧”，建构以促进“每个人的自由发展”为目标的“全面生产”经济学，才能从根本上消除“富裕社会”中的贫困问题。     

Harm reduction for cannabis: Factor analysis of a protective behavioral strategies survey

Objective: To examine the psychometric properties of a measure of cannabis-specific Protective Behavioral Strategies (PBS), which assesses ways in which students may reduce cannabis-related risk. Participants: Respondents to the American College Health Association – National College Health Assessment II (N = 580) during Spring 2015. Methods: Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Exploratory Structural Equation Modeling (ESEM) were used to identify and replicate the factor structure of the measure. Results: Results support a four-factor model (Respiratory Health, Frequency/Quantity, Socializing, and General Health) with close approximate fit (Χ² (310) = 565.96, p < .001, RMSEA = .038 (.033, .043; 90% CI), CFI = .961, TLI = .929, SRMR = .033). Support for the convergent validity and construct validity of the measure was also found. Conclusions: This is the initial step in the development of a standard, psychometrically validated measure of cannabis PBS that has the potential to inform future research and interventions.