投资者情绪生成机理的研究

基于标准金融理论与行为金融理论相结合的思想，力图刻画投资者情绪的生成机理。以引起投资者情绪变化的货币环境、市场收益、市场波动、相关资产收益等因素为起点，引入市场投资价值、市场预期两个中间变量，建立了包含直接和间接影响两类路径的投资者情绪生成概念模型。使用中国股市2014年7月1日至2017年3月31日间的667组日度数据，在VAR建模的基础上开展实证研究。实证结果表明市场收益对投资者情绪具有直接的正向影响，市场波动和相关资产收益两因素基于市场预期中介变量间接负向作用于投资者情绪，而修正后引入的经济周期波动变量可以基于市场投资价值中介变量对投资者情绪产生正向影响，并进一步发现了市场收益、市场投资价值与投资者情绪之间存在正反馈强化过程。研究揭示出了投资者情绪生成的影响因素体系及其实现路径，将该领域研究深入到机理分析层面，并从一个侧面佐证了中国股市过度投机行为的存在。     

Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

Impression management in corporate annual reports during the global financial crisis

This paper analyses impression management (IM) during the global financial crisis (GFC). It examines the differences in multiple textual characteristics and attributions between a highly positive performance period (2002–2007) and the GFC period (2008–2012), within the setting of Spain, where these two economic cycles were extreme. In contrast to previous research, companies' extreme poor performance in our sample is driven by an exogenous event. The findings do not show clear evidence of IM based on textual characteristics specifically linked to the GFC. Companies tried not to use overt IM and, to some extent, tried to clarify the impact of the crisis on performance. They were under great scrutiny and probably preferred to tell a more careful story. However, a general pattern of IM was still present during the GFC in the form of consistent positive attributions, favourable benchmarks and enhancement practices. In essence, the crisis did not fully stop IM practices, but rather influenced the way IM was produced. Overall, our results show that IM was lower during the GFC than in the case of poor performance in normal macroeconomic conditions found by previous literature. The results also show that the narratives of firms in the finance and real estate sectors were the most reactive to the GFC, probably linked to their key role in the crisis.     

Factors associated with a positive childbirth experience in Brazilian women: A cross-sectional study

BackgroundHaving a positive childbirth experience is an increasingly valued outcome. Few studies evaluated the women’s satisfaction with childbirth through face-to-face interviews out of the health service environment. The objective of this study was to identify factors associated with a higher level of satisfaction with the childbirth experience among Brazilian women.MethodsThis cross-sectional study involved 287 women giving birth in two hospitals in southern Brazil. Women who gave birth to healthy newborns at term were randomly selected. Face-to-face interviews were conducted 31–37 days after delivery, at the mothers’ homes, using a structured questionnaire. Satisfaction with the childbirth experience was measured using a Likert-type scale ranging from very satisfied to very dissatisfied. Prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated using Poisson regression with robust variance.ResultsFollowing hierarchical multivariate analysis, the following factors remained associated with a higher level of satisfaction with the childbirth experience: being satisfied with antenatal care (PR = 1.30; 95% confidence interval [95%CI] = 1.06−1.59), understanding the information provided by health professionals during labor and delivery (PR = 1.40; 95%CI = 1.01−1.95), not having reported disrespect and abuse (PR = 1.53; 95%CI = 1.01−2.31), and having had the baby put to the breast within the first hour of life (PR = 1.63; 95%CI = 1.26−2.11). No association was observed with type of delivery or hospital status (public or private).ConclusionsA higher level of satisfaction with the childbirth experience is related to satisfactory antenatal care, a non-abusive, respectful, and informative environment during childbirth, and to the opportunity to breastfeed the baby within the first hour of life. In clinical practice, greater attention to these basic principles of care during pregnancy and delivery could provide more positive experiences during birth.     

Local mobilisations and the formation of environmental networks in a democratizing Tunisia

ABSTRACT

This study examines the environmental protests that occurred in Tunisia after the 2011 uprisings. It analyses the factors underpinning the rise of the environmental networks during the period of transition (2011–2014). It details the mobilising strategies that were crucial for the networks’ growth or survival during this period of institutional instability. The study shows how networks leaders were able to bring together social and political actors from different backgrounds and ideological orientations. It is argued that the ability of networks to develop new distinctive collective identities was crucial for network sustainability. Those networks and actors who did not develop new clearly defined environmental identities and continued to rely importantly on pre-existing (authoritarian) structures and practices were more negatively impacted by ideological cleavages and political calculations. Empirically, the contribution builds on interviews and observations, as well as documents collected from Tunisian municipalities between 2013 and 2015. Conceptually, the research proposes a bottom-up perspective that highlights the interplay between micro- and macro-dynamics and strategies during a political transition. The analysis details the actors’ capacity to build alliances via interpersonal relations at the micro level, and their strategies to engage with institutional actors and processes.     

客户集中度、市场环境与存货管理效率

客户处在供应链的下游,对企业存货的采购、生产和销售都会产生重要影响,而多变的市场环境也在无形当中影响着客户与企业之间的关系。从企业所处行业、地区产品市场和客户三个角度所带来的市场环境变化入手,采用2011—2017年我国沪深两市A股制造业上市公司的数据,实证分析客户集中度与企业存货管理效率之间的关系。研究发现:(1)客户集中度越高,企业存货管理效率越高；(2)产品市场竞争力度越强,客户集中度对企业存货管理效率的影响越大；(3)产品市场发育越好,客户集中度对企业存货管理效率的影响越大。进一步研究发现,当企业因客户生产经营原因导致需求发生较大变化时,客户集中度对企业存货管理效率的正向影响更加显著。研究结论表明,政府应当注重市场竞争力的提升和良好经营环境的建设,使得企业在维护客户关系的同时充分发挥客户集中度对企业存货管理效率的积极作用。     

Assessing the market values of soccer players – a robust analysis of data from German 1. and 2. Bundesliga

The paper examines to what extent a player's market value depends on his skills. Therefore, a data set covering 28 performance measures and the market values of about 493 players from 1. and 2. German Bundesliga is analysed. Applying robust analysis techniques, we are able to robustly estimate market values of soccer players. The results show (1) that there are significantly underrated and overrated players and (2) that a player's affiliation to a certain team may contribute to his market value. We conclude that a club's reputation affects the market values of its players and that star players are in tendency overrated.     

数据生产要素的结合机制——互补性资产视角

数据作为生产要素创造的价值备受关注,但目前对数据与其他生产要素的结合机制缺乏明确的解释。本文从互补性资产理论出发,分别探讨数据与技术、资本、劳动生产要素的结合机制。研究表明:在与技术要素的结合上,数据要素的加入能够帮助创新企业更有效地使用互补性资产,从而产生技术创新;在与资本要素的结合上,数据要素的加入降低了企业获取作为生产资源和营销资源的互补性资产的成本,从而产生成本创新;在与劳动要素的结合上,数据要素能够从产品设计和生产方面提升互补性资产的生成效率,从而产生流程创新。最终,数据要素在与核心生产要素的有机结合下,极大促进了数字经济的创新与发展。     

新乡贤重塑乡规民约:历史承继、时代价值及实现路径

当前乡村治理中乡规民约面临德治退化、自治弱化及法治虚化等现实困境。新乡贤作为乡村社会精英群体,在增强乡规民约的现代性、厚植乡规民约的乡土性及强化乡规民约的权威性等方面具有显著的时代价值,是重塑乡规民约的有益主体选择。实现新乡贤在重塑乡规民约中的时代价值,需要强化乡贤文化的敦风化俗功能、构建乡贤群体的风险防范机制及发挥乡贤组织的协商共治作用。     

双循环发展的改革开放空间试验场——我国开发区的缘起、演进和趋势

开发区是我国改革开放进程中重要的"制度安排",在制度转型、市场机制培育、产业结构升级和带动地区经济增长等方面发挥着引领示范作用,但同时也存在政策效应边际递减、土地资源浪费、创新不足等诸多问题.梳理我国开发区过去三十多年的发展经验和不足,并展望其未来定位是一项重要的研究课题.在详细讨论我国开发区的缘起、动力机制、发展阶段、功能演变、面临问题的基础上,文章从制度安排、比较优势、产业集聚和商业环境四个方面总结了我国开发区取得的成功经验.未来,开发区的发展应实现从生产到生活、从效率到公平、从地的繁荣到人的繁荣、从外围到中心、从专业化到多样化、从高速增长到高质量发展、从对外开放到国内国际双循环等方面的转变.