局部平稳部分线性面板数据模型的统计推断

部分线性模型是一类非常重要的半参数回归模型,由于它既含有参数部分又含有非参数部分,与常规的线性模型相比具有更强的适应性和解释能力。文章研究带有局部平稳协变量的固定效应部分线性面板数据模型的统计推断。首先提出一个两阶段估计方法得到模型中未知参数和非参数函数的估计,并证明估计量的渐近性质,然后运用不变原理构造出非参数函数的一致置信带,最后通过数值模拟研究和实例分析验证了该方法的有效性。     

货币政策反应函数渠道对金融周期影响时变机制的实证研究

在关于货币政策影响经济主体风险承担水平,进而影响金融周期波动机制的研究中,基于风险承担渠道的相关研究较为成熟.区别于以往相关研究多关注货币政策实际采取的立场,文章基于货币政策反应函数渠道探讨了数量型与价格型货币政策反应函数对金融周期波动影响的时变机制.滚动回归的实证结果显示:无论数量型货币政策规则还是价格型货币政策规则,货币政策对信贷波动反应的敏感性主要影响金融周期的波动,但在价格型货币政策规则下,基于信贷视角观察金融周期波动时,货币政策信贷敏感性与货币政策资产价格敏感性对金融周期影响差异较小;较之于价格型货币政策规则,货币政策对信贷波动反应的敏感性在数量型货币政策规则下,对金融周期波动的影响更显著,并在一定程度上表现出随时间扩大的趋势.文章的创新之处在于:强调了货币政策通过政策反应函数渠道而非以往研究中较多关注的狭义风险承担渠道影响金融周期波动的事实,并构建计量模型对货币政策反应函数渠道影响金融周期波动的时变机制进行了详细刻画.     

“一带一路”相关文件政策强度与省域经济开放度关系研究——“一带一路”沿线18个省份实证分析

文章的特色和理论意义在于,尝试量化"一带一路"沿线18个省份"一带一路"相关政策文件,以设计政策效力、政策措施与政策保障的评判要点为基础,确定政策措施强度和政策保障强度.细致讨论"一带一路"文件的政策强度与经济开放度提升之间的关系,并讨论该关系在东西部地区的差异以及政策保障强度在政策措施强度与经济开放度关系之中的调节效应.研究发现:政策措施强度能够正向促进省域经济开放度的提升;在经济开放度高于10％的省份中,政策保障强度正向调节政策措施强度与经济开放度提升之间的关系,政策措施强度和政策保障强度之间存在互补关系;政策措施强度中资金融通强度对于沿线省域经济开放度的提升有着最显著的正向影响,政策沟通强度对于沿线省域经济开放度的提升影响不显著;政策措施强度对省域经济开放度的提升存在地区差别,西部地区更注重"一带一路"倡议所带来的机会.建议:"一带一路"沿线省份在政策设计上,不仅要对政策沟通、设施联通、贸易畅通、资金融通和民心相通等内容作出合理规划和布局,还应对保障机制作出可操作性的安排.     

劳动力转移对城乡居民收入差距的非线性影响研究

借鉴已有相关研究成果,将劳动力转移、农业技术水平与城乡居民收入差距联系起来思考,可以具体地考察劳动力转移对城乡居民收入差距的影响.文章以农业技术水平作为门槛变量,选取2009—2019年中国31个省份的面板数据,利用泰尔指数测定城乡收入差距,以劳动力转移作为核心解释变量构建面板门槛模型,实证得出劳动力转移对城乡居民收入差距的非线性影响.研究发现:劳动力转移可以缩小城乡居民收入差距,且该影响具有单一门槛效应.在农业技术水平较低时,劳动力转移对城乡居民收入差距收敛效应较小;当农业技术水平越过门槛值达到较高水平后,劳动力转移对缩小城乡居民收入差距的效果几乎增加了一倍.此后,通过替换解释变量泰尔指数为城乡人均可支配收入比、替换核心解释变量农业技术水平为农业生产效率重新建立面板门槛模型,发现上述结论仍然成立,其检验结果具有较强的稳健性.文章将农业技术进步、劳动力转移、城乡居民收入差距这三个重要变量纳入同一模型框架中,在加深劳动力流动影响城乡居民收入差距这一视角的研究的同时,对缩小城乡居民收入差距政策的制定提供了重要的参考意义.     

随机需求环境下联产品系统价格与产量决策研究

基于固定比例生产技术和多产品随机需求的情形,研究了联产品制造商的两阶段产量和价格联合优化模型。通过反向倒推的优化求解,得到了联产品制造商的最优产量和价格决策以及变化规律。同时研究了需求服从均匀分布时,需求波动对均衡的影响。研究结果表明,在订货成本较低和一种产品的需求波动性较大时,当另外一种产品的波动增大,则该产品的最优订货量增大,同时价格下降。借助数值仿真,分析了价格敏感度和产出比例对最优决策和利润的影响。结果表明,在给定一种产品的价格敏感度时,另外一种的价格敏感度越大,那么该产品的价格就越低,制造商的订货量就下降。当一种产品的产出比例固定时,另一种产品的产出比例上升时,则该产品的价格下降,制造商的订货量下降,总利润上升。     

Loss and grief: The experience of transition to residential aged care

There is growing recognition of the experience of non-death-related loss and grief. One unexplored area of non-death-related loss and grief is associated with older people’s transition from home to residential aged care (RAC). This paper reports findings from a qualitative study that explored the experiences of people living in RAC, carer-relatives of people living in RAC and RAC staff. Using theories of loss and grief, the paper identifies features of the transition to RAC that are associated with unresolved loss and maladaptation to changed circumstances, and the types of support that would mitigate these. Using a series of focus groups with both residents and carer-relatives, as well as staff, the study found that residents and their families need more support to negotiate the multiple, often necessarily hasty decisions and bureaucratic requirements associated with transitioning to RAC, while simultaneously experiencing loss and grief. The types of support that families would welcome from service providers include facilitating shared decision making, valuing family and community carer expertise and providing practical information and assistance to fulfil administrative obligations.     

新常态下货币供给对工业经济的非对称冲击——兼论冲击路径的情景设计与分析

货币政策冲击对工业产出和价格的非对称影响，是新常态下把握好货币供给政策的方向、力度和节奏的重要参考依据，有助于提升货币供给政策的针对性、灵活性和前瞻性。局部投影方法在不同区制下，计算工业产出和价格对货币供给冲击的脉冲响应结果表明：货币供给冲击对工业产出的影响具有不确定性，且总体上表现为中性特征；而货币供给冲击对工业价格的影响不仅在不同区制下，而且在新常态前后均表现出显著的差异性和非对称性，总体来说是短期有效，长期中性的。情景设计的分析结果显示新常态下采用增加货币供给的政策来刺激工业经济是不可取的，其作用效果可能出现工业产出停滞不前，工业价格急剧飙升的工业滞胀。因此，需要从工业产业升级，工业技术创新等工业供给侧寻求工业经济新的增长点和动力机制。     

Employers' perspectives on benefit conditionality in the UK and Denmark

This article examines the under-explored demand-side of active labour market policies (ALMPs). Based on interview data from a comparative study of the UK and Denmark, the paper analyses employers' perspectives and experiences of ALMPs. In both countries, employers were favourably disposed towards employing unemployed jobseekers but held negative views on conditionality. First, benefit conditionality led to employers receiving large numbers of unsuitable and unfiltered job applications, with associated negative resource impacts. Second, employers perceived this as a product of ‘box ticking' and compliance targets. Finally, employers criticised policy and media rhetoric for focusing solely on the supply-side and for problematizing unemployed candidates. The paper argues that these crucial, but neglected, employer perspectives demonstrate that the current benefit conditionality regime in the UK risks irrevocably ‘tarnishing' candidates, which undermines, rather than enhances, their chances of securing employment through ALMPs. This unique dataset provides further evidence that the current direction of policy requires urgent and radical re-thinking.     

Determinants of social assistance caseloads for employable single adults without dependants in Canada

Government officials like the idea of just a small number of households in their respective jurisdiction receiving social assistance. A large number is seen as costly to the public treasury, and declining caseloads are generally viewed as a mark of success for both the economy and the government of the day. But what factors account for the size of a Canadian province's social assistance caseload? This article aims to shed light on this question, with a focus on single adults without dependants (and without serious disabilities) during the 1989–2017 period. One important finding is that when the value of social assistance benefit levels for this group increases by 1% in a province, the social assistance caseload for this demographic rises by 0.457%. Put differently, there is indeed an important behavior response associated with higher benefit levels. In response, we propose that provincial officials budget for higher take up levels when they increase benefit levels for this household group.