Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

体验型产品消费行为的羊群效应及机理研究——基于电影行业消费行为的实证解释

互联网环境下消费者购买体验型产品时对网络信息的依赖性很大。因此，研究社交媒体影响下体验型产品的消费者决策选择行为具有现实意义。本文以电影行业的票房偏离及消费跟风现象为切入点，探究体验型产品的羊群效应并对其产生的内在机理进行解释。采集艺恩资讯的票房数据以及豆瓣的电影基本信息及影评等数据作为研究样本，从消费者"羊群行为"视角分析其对电影票房的影响。研究发现：在控制了质量等内生性影响之后，消费者羊群效应依然存在；产品特征信息对羊群效应起到了调节作用，从而形成理性跟随；采用预期差异模型可以解释消费者实现理性跟随的过程。研究结论对于电影行业宏观政策制定及对体验型产品合理进行营销推广提供了理论基础与实证依据。     

试论美国电影中的英雄情结

“英雄类”影片是好莱坞制造的最具轰动效应的神话之一。本文拟对美国影片中塑造的各类英雄形象加以梳理与阐释 ,并进而对这些英雄片背后的英雄情结进行剖析 ,以期管窥美国影片中一些深层文化心理机制     

一个汉英机器翻译系统中的语义处理模型

简略阐述了三种语义分析理论 -配价语法 ,格语法 ,论旨理论后 ,重点介绍了机器翻译系统所采用的语义模型     

开放式数控切割机神经网络误差补偿研究

分析了影响数控火焰切割机加工精度的主要因素,利用开放式数控系统的软件开放性,提出了采用IGCAQBP学习算法的神经网络方法来对包括金属热变形、机械传动误差等非线性因素在内的多种因素造成的加工误差进行误差补偿,设计了嵌入开放式数控系统中的神经网络误差补偿器,给出了实用的补偿器使用方法,并对误差补偿功能进行了扩展,仿真结果和实际应用表明该方法稳定有效。     

类型电影与观众态度

根据电影叙事是否依据一个形式惯例传统,电影理论把电影分为类型电影和非类型电影。事实上,来自于既有惯例的类型经验影响着我们从日常生活到艺术欣赏很多行为中所具有的心理模式,我们的相关态度在很大程度上也以此建立。本文讨论的是在观看类型电影的时候观众的欣赏态度,并将这个态度分为"作为基础的惯例经验"、"欣赏时建构的心理时空"和"态度的娱乐指向"三个部分,从中可以看到三个部分的相互关系和观众欣赏类型电影的心理特征。     

高速SDRAM控制器设计的FPGA实现

同步动态存储器(SDRAM)控制器通常用有限状态机实现,对于一般的设计方法,由于状态数量多,状态转换通常伴随大的组合逻辑而影响运行速度,因此,SDRAM控制器的速度限制了SDRAM存储器的访问速度。该文从结构优化入手来优化方法,利用状态机分解的思想将大型SDRAM控制状态机用若干小的子状态机实现,达到简化逻辑的目的,不仅提高了速度还节省了资源,对该类大型SDRAM控制器的实现有一定参考意义。     

The organizational shaping of collective identity: The case of lesbian and gay film festivals in New York

Using information gathered during fieldwork on New York lesbian and gay film festival organizations, this paper argues that scholarship on identity has not paid sufficient attention to the organizational mediation of collective identity. The shape of collective identity—how internal instabilities and diversities are accommodated, in this case—depends not only on the emergent characteristics of the “collective,” but also on the resolution of challenges particular to organizational fields. Two very differently conceived lesbian and gay festival organizations, sites at which decision making about collective identity is ongoing and self-conscious, are examined. The analysis traces how each responds to two related tasks: maintaining community legitimacy, which requires racial diversification, and surviving within an altered institutional environment. Rather than imposition from “above” or construction from “below,” the adaptive responses by organizations (to changes in both community expectations and the resource environment) transform the collective identity formulations reaching public visibility. Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the Colloquium Series of the Center for Lesbian and Gay Studies, City University of New York, 1995, and at the Annual Meeting of the American Sociological Association, Washington, DC, 1995.     

数控机床功能的扩展

本文主要分析了HEIDENHAIN TNC 310数控铣床系统中圆弧铣削指令及螺纹铣削指令,对螺纹铣削功能进行延伸,扩展到圆弧三轴联动,并对螺纹铣削指令格式进行了修改,从而具有圆弧三轴联动铣削功能。     

类型电影与类型批评

无论在传统电影批评还是现代电影批评的领域,类型批评都是重要的不可或缺的批评方法之一。它的研究对象类型电影的产生是大工业生产和艺术审美合力的产物;类型电影的本质内涵是模式化,它的创新是在模式基础上的破格;类型批评的历史和类型电影的创作并不同步,在经历了现代批评理论的洗礼后,类型批评呈现出综合化的跨学科的研究趋向。