数据驱动下收货方质量偏好与电商配送服务质量优化

针对"互联网+大数据"优化电商配送服务质量问题，明确不同收货方的质量需求稳定性，引导电商根据收货方不同质量敏感性提供相对精准服务，提升配送服务质量。模拟投票结果的形成过程聚类得到收货方对服务质量偏好的记忆性特征：（1）"无记忆"型收货方；（2）"记忆"型收货方；（3）"不确定"型收货方；（4）收货方总体。进一步推导不同规划类型求解空间，设计得到"无记忆"型收货方动态规划精确求解方法，及其他三种类型近似求解粒子群算法。研究过程中，配送资源质量感知度被嵌入到模型约束；"无记忆"型收货方的质量需求规划问题转化为零库存策略最优解问题，进而证明存在精确解；"记忆"型收货方呈现出对质量感知的累积；"不确定"型收货方模型通过赋值即可得总体收货方表达式。结果表明：数据驱动研究框架借助大数据资源，使得电商更易通过收货方的质量偏好设计更加匹配的配送方案；不确定服务需求得到有效满足，投入成本的利用率更高；通过特征分类的方式，尽可能地抽取能够精确最优化的部分，缩小NP范围，提高整体求解的精确度。     

大吴文化研究纵横谈

大吴文化是一种广义的地域文化 ,即从古到今 ,吴地人民所创造的一切文化的总汇。吴地地域的界定 ,有广义、狭义之分 ,广义的吴地地域的界定应以历史政区和吴语分布区为依据。从大吴文化视角出发 ,可将吴文化视为一种丰富的知识性的资源 ,人们可纵横结合 ,从人类社会的多个层面予以研究、开发和利用。在长期的发展中 ,吴文化形成了先吴文化、吴国文化、吴地文化三个时期。吴文化具有自己的鲜明特色 ,其中主要有依托水 ;融合古今 ,汇通中西 ;后来居上 ,敢为天下先等     

The Best and Worst Times of Life: Narratives and Assessments of Subjective Well-Being by Anamnestic Comparative Self Assessment (ACSA) in the Eastern Cape,South Africa

The Anamnestic Comparative Self Assessment (ACSA) measure of subjective well-being (SWB) aims to reduce the problems of cultural bias and relativity to external standards by allowing people to define the endpoints or ‘anchors’ of the measurement scale. In medical terminology anamnestic denotes ‘based on memory’. The ACSA uses subjects’ memories of the best and worst periods in their lives to define the anchors of the scale. They then assess their current quality of life relative to these personal anchors. The South African pilot study tested the match between self-assessment of SWB with ACSA and the conventional single-item measures of life satisfaction and happiness used in the South African Quality of Life Trends Study and analysed the narratives of the best and worst times of life. The quota sample of 46 consisted of 26 residents of Makana district in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa, and 20 patients undergoing treatment in the local TB hospital. Mean SWB ratings with all three measures of life satisfaction, happiness and ACSA were between 5 and 6 on a 0–10-point scale. Ratings on all three scales were positively correlated. However, on ACSA the TB patients rated their current SWB 1.84 points lower than the community respondents, suggesting a greater sensitivity of this measure. It was observed that the starting points of the life stories produced by respondents to define the anchor periods for ACSA were related to their current assessment of SWB. A typology was developed that combined the starting point of the life stories with current SWB. The majority of community respondents matched the ‘Achiever’ type who scored positively on ACSA (i.e., above the mid-point of the scale) and whose life stories started with the worst period of their lives and proceeded to the best period. The TB patients were the only respondents to represent the ‘Survivor’ type whose morale had recovered after misfortune in life. ‘Survivors’ started their narratives with the best period in their lives, then moved to the worst (often health-related) one, and gave positive ACSA ratings. Based on the qualitative analysis of narratives, it is concluded that ACSA is a sensitive measurement instrument and therefore particularly useful for monitoring the effects of treatments and social interventions in longitudinal studies. However, further research is required to verify its cross-cultural validity.

20世纪中国文学思潮进程现象反观(一)

每一个时代都有自己时代所需要的历史叙述与文学观念 ,成为了学术的基本权力。 2 0世纪中国文学已经走完了它的全程 ,并完整地展现在我们的记忆与案头。纵览 2 0世纪中国社会思潮的史学进程 :从“人文主义精神”到“社会主义思潮” ,再向世纪末“现代主义理念”的嬗变演进 ,决定 2 0世纪中国文学思潮的整体走向 ,传统的“现、当代文学史”的分期理论与编史叙述的本质缺陷 ,清晰地暴露出来 ,从而有力地支撑着“2 0世纪中国文学”编史叙述的基本构想。     

两级供应链Stackelberg主从对策的优化模型及其应用

本文研究了供应链的协调订货模式及其特例,提出了两级供应链Stackelberg主从对策问题模型,其中卖方作为主方给出最小补充期策略,买方作为从方以最优库存策略响应。建立了求解Stackelberg主从对策问题的成本优化模型,并考虑了累积价格折扣激励和买方库存成本合理化。对一个石油分销系统Stackelberg主从对策问题应用遗传算法离线仿真计算,得出Stackelberg均衡解,达到帕累托最优。     

Gender‐Sensitive Research in a Chinese Community

The aim of this article is to foster an awareness of the need for gender‐sensitive research in the context of the methodological and ethical challenges posed by such research. We trace the development of gender sensitivity and masculinity in social work practice and research and connect this to an overview of the issues posed by research on sensitive topics. Reflecting on a research project involving Chinese male sexual abuse survivors, we draw conclusions illustrating and proposing a range of methodological practices and ethical safeguards. We underscore the importance of gender‐sensitivity in performing research on sensitive topics with men in a Chinese community.     

An optional randomized response model for estimating a rare sensitive attribute using Poisson distribution

The crux of this article is to estimate the mean of the number of persons possessing a rare sensitive attribute based on the Mangat (1991 Mangat, N.S. (1991). An optional randomized response sampling technique using non–stigmatized attribute. Statistica. 51(4):595–602. [Google Scholar]) randomization device by utilizing the Poisson distribution in simple random sampling and stratified sampling. Properties of the proposed randomized response (RR) model have been studied along with recommendations. It is also shown that the proposed model is more efficient than that of Land et al. (2011 Land, M., Singh, S., Sedory, S.A. (2011). Estimation of a rare attribute using Poisson distribution. Statistics. 46(3):351–360.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) in simple random sampling and that of Lee et al. (2013 Lee, G.S., Uhm, D., Kim, J.M. (2013). Estimation of a rare sensitive attribute in stratified sampling using Poisson distribution. Statistics. 47(3):575–589.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) in stratified random sampling when the proportion of persons possessing a rare unrelated attribute is known. Numerical illustrations are also given in support of the present study.     

A new stratified three-stage unrelated randomized response model for estimating a rare sensitive attribute based on the Poisson distribution

This article suggests an efficient method of estimating a rare sensitive attribute which is assumed following Poisson distribution by using three-stage unrelated randomized response model instead of the Land et al. model (2011 Land, M., S. Singh, and S. A. Sedory. 2011. Estimation of a rare sensitive attribute using poisson distribution. Statistics 46 (3):351–60. doi:10.1080/02331888.2010.524300.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) when the population consists of some different sized clusters and clusters selected by probability proportional to size(:pps) sampling. A rare sensitive parameter is estimated by using pps sampling and equal probability two-stage sampling when the parameter of a rare unrelated attribute is assumed to be known and unknown.

We extend this method to the case of stratified population by applying stratified pps sampling and stratified equal probability two-stage sampling. An empirical study is carried out to show the efficiency of the two proposed methods when the parameter of a rare unrelated attribute is assumed to be known and unknown.     

民族儿童文学:民族精神的独特呈现和体现——2010、2011少数民族儿童文学略论

在全球化语境中,承扬民族文化、张扬民族精神,是民族儿童文学创作面临的大问题。民族儿童文学作家常以一种世所罕有的审美敏感去表现边地的自然万物,或以魔幻性叙事来构筑民族儿童审美的形象体系,或以发展的、理想的视角展示当下民族儿童的现实,都表达出生命的另一种绚丽和辉煌、生活的另一种奇异和深邃、生性的另一种善良和刚强,使民族精神在民族儿童文学中得到独特的呈现和体现。     

Bayesian estimation of rare sensitive attribute

Randomized response models have been used to estimate a population proportion of a sensitive attribute. A randomized device is typically employed to protect respondent's privacy in a survey. In addition, an unrelated question is asked to improve the statistical efficiency. In this article, we propose Bayesian estimation of rare sensitive attribute using randomized response technique, which includes a rare unrelated attribute. Two cases are considered, the proportion of a rare unrelated attribute is known and unknown. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the models using mean absolute error and coverage probability. The results show that the performance depends on the parameters and is robust to priors.