走出离合词现象的迷局——从准定语与准名词现象入手

词的离合现象是语法研究中的老大难问题。文章独辟蹊径,从与词的离析使用密切相关的准定语和准名词入手,根据句子的信息结构原则,解释了词的离合现象的成因。文章指出,话语的信息结构安排是促成句法结构重组的语用推力:话题语的指称化处置诱发了准定语结构的操作,基本不涉及词的离析;评述语受单一新信息原则制约而出现的事件化处置,迫使及物性低的双音词强行拆分以容纳事件化所需要素,是诱发词的离析并催生准定语和准名词的直接动因。文章的观点是,用朴素的眼光看汉语,汉语中并无什么离合词,词的离合只是非形态语中双音词的用法变异,是语用型语言句子信息结构进行整编与重组的副产品。     

Statistical Inference Enables Bad Science; Statistical Thinking Enables Good Science

ABSTRACT

Scientific research of all kinds should be guided by statistical thinking: in the design and conduct of the study, in the disciplined exploration and enlightened display of the data, and to avoid statistical pitfalls in the interpretation of the results. However, formal, probability-based statistical inference should play no role in most scientific research, which is inherently exploratory, requiring flexible methods of analysis that inherently risk overfitting. The nature of exploratory work is that data are used to help guide model choice, and under these circumstances, uncertainty cannot be precisely quantified, because of the inevitable model selection bias that results. To be valid, statistical inference should be restricted to situations where the study design and analysis plan are specified prior to data collection. Exploratory data analysis provides the flexibility needed for most other situations, including statistical methods that are regularized, robust, or nonparametric. Of course, no individual statistical analysis should be considered sufficient to establish scientific validity: research requires many sets of data along many lines of evidence, with a watchfulness for systematic error. Replicating and predicting findings in new data and new settings is a stronger way of validating claims than blessing results from an isolated study with statistical inferences.     

社会保险制度中社会风险的产生、内涵及应对*

社会风险是社会保险制度存在的前提，没有社会风险，就不会有社会保险。从风险、风险社会及社会风险这些相关概念出发，全面阐述社会保险制度中社会风险的产生及其发展路径，发现社会保险制度上所应对的社会风险是一种中度危险的风险事故，有着自身特定的制度内涵。在此基础上，从作为技术途径的保险原则与社会保险权之权利规则的两个视角分析了社会保险制度对社会风险的应对原理、机制与优势。     

Linking taxation and social protection: Evidence on redistribution and poverty reduction in Ethiopia

Although redistribution results from the simultaneous effects of taxes and transfers, analyses of their distributional effects in low‐income countries have largely been undertaken from singular perspectives. This article jointly assesses the distributional effect of taxes and transfers (through social protection) using Ethiopia as a case study. We find that Ethiopia's flagship social protection programme is more effective than income taxation in achieving poverty reduction, while neither policy achieves a sizeable reduction in overall inequality. We also find that Ethiopia does not currently have the capacity to close the poverty gap or to fully fund its main safety net programme using domestic income sources alone.     

未成年人运动伤害归责原则的法经济学分析

通过分析未成年人运动伤害事故时，教育机构和未成年学生及其监护人在严格责任和过错责任两种归责原则下的博弈行为选择，可以判断出过错责任原则对教育机构、未成年学生及其监护人的行为进行调整则更有利于社会福利。过错推定原则降低了案件的归责成本，减少了因果关系认定的成本，减少了弱者的举证成本。依据未成年人的年龄、民事行为能力的不同，幼儿园、中小学校或者其他教育机构在运动伤害事故中的侵权责任分别采取过错责任原则和过错责任推定原则是合理的。     

Children taken into care and custody and the ‘troubled families’ agenda in England

Children taken into care and custody are arguably the most vulnerable and problematic groups within the wider debate and responses developing to the ‘troubled families’ agenda in England. They represent what the state most wants to avoid when it intervenes in the life of a family. This paper is based on an analysis of the service involvement and needs of the 196 children taken into care or custody over a 3‐year period (2008–2011) in one city local authority in England. The research was undertaken to inform the response to prevention of entry into care and custody which was the original focus of the most intensive part of the troubled families programme in the city. Interviews with 10 senior professionals from a range of agencies involved in setting up this local programme, explored the way the emerging troubled families agenda was shaping ideas about the understanding of and response to the needs of these children and their families. Key findings of the study illustrate the range and complexity of need as well as the sequence and amount of agency involvement. Professionals were often critical of the thinking behind the troubled families agenda, but were positive and creative about new ways of working with these families.     

论电子商务法基本原则

电子商务法学界对电子商务法基本原则的认识仍存在种种分歧和不足.技术中立原则只是民法平等原则的细化,不能成为电子商务法基本原则.在梳理国内现有理论研究并汲取合理成分的基础上,以法律基本原则的原理为基础,从电子商务法解决的核心问题是在非面对面交易环境中,如何确保当事人能够获得商品和价款出发,提出电子商务法基本原则是安全原则.功能等同是判定利用新型信息技术所实施的法律行为有效与否的标准,是安全原则的重要外延和具体化.安全原则要求第三方电子商务平台针对平台内发生的第三方侵权行为负有合理的注意义务.在安全原则指引下,技术中立非绝对,应包含国家安全等例外规则.     

政治与社会——基于对《论法的精神》的诠释

本文以对孟德斯鸠思想的社会学诠释为出发点，重返《论法的精神》，借此澄清从现代政治科学到社会学的学科转换。一方面，孟德斯鸠借助对法的重新定义，将政治科学的视野拓宽到政府之下的社会，从而推动了从政治科学到社会学的过渡；另一方面，通过澄清政府的原则与民族的一般精神、风俗和礼仪的关系指出，在孟德斯鸠那里，政治并不是社会的一个子系统或附属领域，而是从政治视角出发来看的整个社会，甚至还超出了社会。借此，我们希望突破当前社会学重视社会，轻视政治的学科思维。     

Valuing equity-indexed annuities with icicled barrier options

Inspired by the recent popularity of autocallable structured products, this paper intends to enhance equity-indexed annuities (EIAs) by introducing a new class of barrier options, termed icicled barrier options. The new class of options has a vertical (icicled) barrier along with the horizontal one of the ordinary barrier options, which may act as an additional knock-in or knock-out trigger. To improve the crediting method of EIAs, we propose a new EIA design, termed autocallable EIA, with payoff structure similar to the autocallable products except for the minimum guarantee, and further investigate the possibility of embedding various icicled barrier options into the plain point-to-point or the ratchet EIAs. Explicit pricing formulas for the proposed EIAs and the icicled barrier options are obtained under the Black–Scholes model. To the purpose, we derive the joint distribution of the logarithmic returns at the icicled time and the maturity, and their running maximum. As an application of the well-known reflection principle, the derivation itself is an interesting probability problem and the joint distribution plays a key role in the subsequent pricing stage. Our option pricing result can be easily transferred to EIAs or other equity-linked products. The pricing formulas for the EIAs and the options are illustrated through numerical examples.     

论量刑事实的证明责任

刑事证明责任内涵应当包含“评价要素”,对于特定事实,证明责任承担者所举证据仅需要达到说服法官相信事实可能成立之程度。分配证明责任应当遵循证据所持、证据距离与诉讼效率等原则。我国刑事诉讼法未将量刑事实的证明责任进行区别对待,对公诉机关和法院的证明责任规定也不尽合理,更未规定证明责任转移规则。为最大程度实现量刑公正,应尝试对我国量刑事实的证明责任进行体系性完善,合理规定控方、被告人与被害人的证明责任,对立功、认罪认罚等量刑事实创设证明责任转移规则。