广义ATO下基于多种团购模型的供应链协调

针对由多个供应商、单个制造商和零售商所组成的广义按订单装配式供应链，在上游多个供应商不确定的零部件（或商品）供应以及下游客户不确定的需求的环境下，首先分析基本模型中团购前后的零售商和制造商的利润变化，然后提出了团购的标准模型和协调模型，并比较三种不同的团购模型对各成员以及全局供应链绩效的影响。通过数学推导证明和仿真数据算例分析，结果表明：零售商自发的团购基本模型总是对制造商有利，而对零售商的好处是有限的；由制造商主导的团购标准模型在满足一定条件时是优于团购基本模型的，但有使得零售商甚至制造商自身受到损失的可能；而集中决策下的团购协调模型能够提升全局供应链的期望利润，实现渠道的帕累托改善，但协调的效果会受到团购客户组成结构的限制。     

考虑消费者双重偏好的低碳供应链减排策略研究

为了削弱传统零售商在渠道博弈中的垄断地位，制造商尝试建立在线渠道与零售商展开竞争。本文在考虑消费者低碳偏好的基础上，又将消费者的渠道偏好进行区分，通过不同决策模式的对比及数值算例分析，寻求低碳供应链最优的减排边界。研究表明：1分散决策时，制造商的低碳决策会受消费者渠道偏好的影响；集中决策时，制造商的低碳决策保持不变。2不同决策模式的减排边界由渠道偏好决定，渠道偏好较大时，分散决策的减排边界更高；渠道偏好较低时，集中决策的减排边界更高；渠道偏好中立时，两者的减排边界相同。3制造商可以通过升级低碳技术、实行低碳化管理等方式降低减排成本，同时通过低碳产品认证、广告宣传等方式提高消费者对低碳产品的认可程度。     

三级装备制造业供应链质量管理行为研究

作为我国工业化建设和国民经济发展的根本保证，供应链环境下装备制造企业的产品质量问题受到了广泛关注。本文重点考虑产品质量对供应链收益的影响，运用微分对策理论研究由单一制造商、单一部件供应商和单一零件供应商构成的三级装备制造业供应链质量管理行为的协调问题。通过对比Nash非合作博弈和Stackelberg主从博弈两种分散式决策模式及集中式决策模式下协同合作博弈的均衡结果，得到相关结论，并利用算例进行验证。研究表明，①分散式决策下，制造商的质量管理行为相同，但相比于Nash非合作博弈，Stackelberg主从博弈能够改善部件供应商和零件供应商的质量管理行为，提升供应链成员的收益水平；②集中式决策下，供应链成员的质量管理行为达到最优，系统整体收益实现最大。研究结论为装备制造业供应链成员间质量管理战略联盟的构建提供了理论依据。     

信息不对称下价格随机的应急数量折扣契约研究

以市场需求和市场价格随机波动的二级供应链为研究对象，寻找其在信息不对称条件下绩效优化的路径。通过显示原理分别构建生产成本和销售成本信息不对称时应急供应链的数量折扣契约模型，得到最优订货量与最佳批发价策略。通过具体的算例加以验证，分析了信息不对称程度对供应链上成员及整个供应链绩效的影响。研究结果表明：当突发事件造成市场价格随机波动和市场需求变化时，供应链上的跟随者能从隐瞒私人信息中获利。但当市场需求增大时，整个供应链绩效受损，反之则反是。这与以往研究在市场需求随机、市场价格固定和信息不对称条件下的结论迥异。     

Application of a non-homogeneous Markov chain with seasonal transition probabilities to ozone data

In this work, we assume that the sequence recording whether or not an ozone exceedance of an environmental threshold has occurred in a given day is ruled by a non-homogeneous Markov chain of order one. In order to account for the possible presence of cycles in the empirical transition probabilities, a parametric form incorporating seasonal components is considered. Results show that even though some covariates (namely, relative humidity and temperature) are not included explicitly in the model, their influence is captured in the behavior of the transition probabilities. Parameters are estimated using the Bayesian point of view via Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The model is applied to ozone data obtained from the monitoring network of Mexico City, Mexico. An analysis of how the methodology could be used as an aid in the decision-making is also given.     

Independent attributes control chart for Markov-dependent processes

Statistical process monitoring (SPM) is a very efficient tool to maintain and to improve the quality of a product. In many industrial processes, end product has two or more attribute-type quality characteristics. Some of them are independent, but the observations are Markovian dependent. It is essential to develop a control chart for such situations. In this article, we develop an Independent Attributes Control Chart for Markov Dependent Processes based on error probabilities criterion under the assumption of one-step Markov dependency. Implementation of the chart is similar to that of Shewhart-type chart. Performance of the chart has been studied using probability of detecting shift criterion. A procedure to identify the attribute(s) responsible for out-of-control status of the process is given.     

Comparing policy advisory systems beyond the OECD: models,dynamics and the second-generation research agenda

ABSTRACT

The concept of “policy advisory systems” was introduced by Halligan in 1995 as a way to characterize and analyze the multiple sources of policy advice utilized by governments in policy-making processes. The concept has proved useful and has influenced thinking about both the nature of policy work in different advisory venues as well as how these systems change over time. However, to date this work has examined mainly cases of developed countries and its application to developing and transitional countries is less certain. This paper sets out existing models of policy advisory systems based on Halligan’s original thinking on the subject and assesses the findings of many existing studies into OECD countries that advisory systems have been changing as a result of the dual effects of increased use of external consultants and others sources of advice – “externalization” – and the increased use of partisan advice inside government itself – “politicization”. Determining whether or not such changes have also characterized the situations found in developing and transitional countries and at the international-domestic and state-sub-state levels is the subject of the papers in this Special Issue.     

国家级新区义务教育资源供需矛盾及消解路径——基于N市J区12345政务热线数据分析

成立国家级新区对迅速改善欠发达地区经济环境、改变落后的民生状态进而促进城市区域发展具有重要意义。国家级新区应努力推动社会公共服务体系与产业发展体系协同共进。义务教育资源是社会公共服务体系的重要组成部分，不容忽视。国家级新区在初创的关键时期需要打好义务教育资源均衡分配的基础，为后续义务教育资源的优化升级提供坚实保障。本文以N市J区为例，通过对12345政务热线服务平台的数据分析和对关键人物的访谈，探讨国家级新区初创期义务教育资源需求特征，同时发现实际存在着义务教育资源供不应求、供需脱节、配置失衡、提质升级乏力等供需矛盾，并依据新区初创阶段的实际需求，从制定规划、资金支持、供需互动、创新升级等方面进一步探讨国家级新区义务教育资源供需矛盾的消解路径。     

How much is too much: Does the size of income support transfers affect labor supply?

Cash transfer programs pursue mainly protective objectives, but can also impact rural livelihoods by inducing investments in productive activities and changing household labor allocation. We adopt a continuous treatment approach to quantify how households’ labor supply responds to transfer size. We find a shift from paid labor to own farm labor and find that the transfer size is well within a level that would have disincentive effects on time spent on own farm activities. The switch from paid to own farm labor occurs at lower levels of transfers for labor-constrained households, and at higher levels for non-labor constrained households.     

Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.