Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

Cooperative innovation through a talent management pool: A qualitative study on coopetition in healthcare

In recent years, the Dutch healthcare sector has been confronted with increased competition. Not only are financial resources scarce, Dutch hospitals also need to compete with other hospitals in the same geographic area to attract and retain talented employees due to considerable labour shortages. However, four hospitals operating in the same region are cooperating to cope with these shortages by developing a joint Talent Management Pool. ‘Coopetiton’ is a concept used for simultaneous cooperation and competition. In this paper, a case study is performed in order to enhance our understanding of coopetition. Among other things, the findings suggest that perceptions of organizational actors on competition differ and might hinder cooperative innovation with competitors, while perceived shared problems and resource constraints stimulate coopetition. We reflect on the current coopetition literature in light of the research findings, which have implications for future research on this topic.     

Learning from a lot: Empirical Bayes for high‐dimensional model‐based prediction

Empirical Bayes is a versatile approach to “learn from a lot” in two ways: first, from a large number of variables and, second, from a potentially large amount of prior information, for example, stored in public repositories. We review applications of a variety of empirical Bayes methods to several well‐known model‐based prediction methods, including penalized regression, linear discriminant analysis, and Bayesian models with sparse or dense priors. We discuss “formal” empirical Bayes methods that maximize the marginal likelihood but also more informal approaches based on other data summaries. We contrast empirical Bayes to cross‐validation and full Bayes and discuss hybrid approaches. To study the relation between the quality of an empirical Bayes estimator and p, the number of variables, we consider a simple empirical Bayes estimator in a linear model setting. We argue that empirical Bayes is particularly useful when the prior contains multiple parameters, which model a priori information on variables termed “co‐data”. In particular, we present two novel examples that allow for co‐data: first, a Bayesian spike‐and‐slab setting that facilitates inclusion of multiple co‐data sources and types and, second, a hybrid empirical Bayes–full Bayes ridge regression approach for estimation of the posterior predictive interval.     

The Welfare State as Safety Net in Migration Preferences: Empirical Evidence from an Experiment Among Dutch Master Students

Population Research and Policy Review - The welfare state can be perceived as a safety net which helps individuals adjust to situations of risk or transition. Starting from this idea of the welfare...     

Inequality Assessment by Probabilistic Development Indices

Social Indicators Research - This paper analyses the Human Development Index (HDI) time series from 2010 to 2017. An alternative index is studied, which combines the same components of the HDI by...     

The African Evaluation Guidelines: 2002. A checklist to assist in planning evaluations, negotiating clear contracts, reviewing progress and ensuring adequate completion of an evaluation

A review of the US ‘program evaluation standards’ (PES), undertaken in a series of workshops and meetings of networks of evaluators in Africa, resulted in modifications to those standards. The result was presented to a plenary session of the Inaugural Conference of the African Evaluation Association in September 1999, attended by over 300 evaluators from 35 countries. The AfrEA Conference decided that a systematic effort should be made to produce a list of African evaluation guidelines, similar to the PES, and that this checklist should be reviewed by national evaluation associations and networks in Africa and field tested in several countries. Ten national and regional networks and associations suggested modifications to the text and endorsed the final version of the guidelines.     

The Abject Embodiment of Cancer Patients: Dignity,Selfhood, and the Grotesque Body

The body is the empirical quintessence of the self. Because selfhood is symbolic, embodiment represents the personification and materialization of otherwise invisible qualities of personhood. The body and experiences of embodiment are central to our sense of being, who we think we are, and what others attribute to us. What happens, then, when one's body is humiliating? How does the self handle the implications of a gruesome body? How do people manage selfhood in light of grotesque physical appearances? This study explores these questions in the experiences of dying cancer patients and seeks to better understand relationships among body, self, and situated social interaction.     

Fire and restoration of the largest urban forest of the world in Rio de Janeiro City,Brazil

National Park of Tijuca in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) is about 3,300 ha and considered the largest urban forest in the world. Its floristic composition is typical of Atlantic Rain Forest. The reserve is being altered because of fire occurrences and urban expansion. This study identified locations and causes of forest fires, and makes management recommendations to restore damaged areas. From 1991 to 2000, forest firefighters recorded an average of 75-fire occurrences/year. Identified causes included hot air balloons (24%), intentional (24%), rubbish burning (21%) and religious practices (17%). Primary fuels included invasive grasses and ferns. Although hot air balloons destroyed larger areas of forest in each occurrence, a greater number of fires started in the invasive vegetation along roads that bisect the forest. In response to recurrent forests, invasive vegetation has spread gradually into the forest increasing forest degradation. To decrease fire damage, sites with high fire frequencies and density of invasive vegetation were planted with less flammable species. Results indicate that fire frequency decreased and density of invasive vegetation declined. This approach appears to prevent fire incidence, reduce the need for fire fighting, and preserve existing biodiversity.