Inferences for a Partially Varying Coefficient Model With Endogenous Regressors

In this article, we propose a new class of semiparametric instrumental variable models with partially varying coefficients, in which the structural function has a partially linear form and the impact of endogenous structural variables can vary over different levels of some exogenous variables. We propose a three-step estimation procedure to estimate both functional and constant coefficients. The consistency and asymptotic normality of these proposed estimators are established. Moreover, a generalized F-test is developed to test whether the functional coefficients are of particular parametric forms with some underlying economic intuitions, and furthermore, the limiting distribution of the proposed generalized F-test statistic under the null hypothesis is established. Finally, we illustrate the finite sample performance of our approach with simulations and two real data examples in economics.     

Estimation of the marginal expected shortfall under asymptotic independence

We study the asymptotic behavior of the marginal expected shortfall when the two random variables are asymptotic independent but positively associated, which is modeled by the so-called tail dependent coefficient. We construct an estimator of the marginal expected shortfall, which is shown to be asymptotically normal. The finite sample performance of the estimator is investigated in a small simulation study. The method is also applied to estimate the expected amount of rainfall at a weather station given that there is a once every 100 years rainfall at another weather station nearby.     

政治关联如何影响社会组织有效性？——组织自主性的中介作用和制度支持的调节作用

社会组织领域的政治关联现象日益显著，但政治关联究竟如何影响社会组织有效性，其隐藏的作用机制又是什么？这是学术界尚未明晰的重要课题。针对254家社会组织的问卷调查发现，社会组织政治关联会正向影响组织有效性，这一关系受到组织自主性的中介作用影响。更进一步的研究显示，制度支持能调节上述中介关系。具体而言，当制度支持水平较高时，这一效应将会增强；当制度支持水平较低时，政治关联通过组织自主性间接影响组织有效性的效应就会减弱。这一发现，一方面增进了我们对社会组织政治关联的理解，另一方面也为提升社会组织有效性的理论和实践提供了重要启示。     

Chinese Language Media in the United States: Immigration and Assimilation in American Life

Qualitative Sociology - The upsurge of Chinese language media—publications, radio, television, and the Internet—mirrors the linguistic, cultural, and socioeconomic diversity of the...     

试论詹姆士的“意识流“理论

本文指出,詹姆士的意识流理论不仅是其彻底经验主义的基础,而且在心理学和文艺领域都具有重要影响,应引起人们足够重视.     

4×100米接力跑组队与训练方法

本文通过对4×100米接力跑的技术特点的分析,指出了合理选拔队员组成接力队,并运用合理的训 练方法,使运动员熟练掌握传接棒技术,提高每个队员的单跑能力,进而提高4×100米接力跑的成绩。     

Monitoring the parameter changes in general ARIMA time series models

We propose methods for monitoring the residuals of a fitted ARIMA or an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model in order to detect changes of the parameters in that model. We extend the procedures of Box & Ramirez (1992) and Ramirez (1992) and allow the differencing parameter, d to be fractional or integer. Test statistics are approximated by Wiener processes. We carry out simulations and also apply our method to several real time series. The results show that our method is effective for monitoring all parameters in ARFIMA models.     

R12在水平管内流动沸腾换热实验研究

本文对R12在水平管内流动沸腾换热特性作了实验研究。实验结果表明,管内流动沸腾换热与单相对流换热一样,存在热进口效应,国外早期的实验数据由于未能考虑热进口效应而偏大。实验结果还表明,水平流动沸腾周向不均匀换热主要受流动结构影响;截面平均换热系数则与质量流速、热流密度、质量干度和蒸发压力密切相关。分析实验数据证实,流动沸腾换热是由气泡产生而引起的流动充分发展核态沸腾和双相对流蒸发两部分组成的。本文的实验数据与国外已有的换热关系式能较好吻合。     

乐教与儒者的宗教情怀

乐教是理解儒家精神不可忽视的重要方面。乐教扎根于“亲亲”之情,具体体现为与“忧患意识”有别,而与“安”“乐”相协调一致的“怛”和“哀”“悲”之情。此情实质上是超越的天道内化为人的心性而落实下来的生命意义与价值得以呈现的方式。儒者虽深知人生之哀、悲,但以乐入手,解悟和转化现实的人生与宇宙,是一大特色。如此,宗教情怀转化为现实的人生关怀,成为特有的礼乐文明的核心内涵。     

知识经济对大学教育与大学生学习变革的要求

知识经济对大学教育的变革已成为科教兴国的重要焦点:知识经济的时代特点决定了大学文化的价值取向是创新;也引发了大学的学习革命———维持性学习必须向创新性学习过渡;还要以通才式的信息技术教育夯实学生的创造素质基础;更是邓小平“三个面向”与江泽民“创新”思想对大学教育要紧随时代变化要求的具体落实。知识经济时代还要求大学生注重有利于创新精神培养的个性化、多样化与交互学习;还要创造性参与大学教育模式由传统向现代的变革过程,面对信息的全球开放性更要学会选择性学习。