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1.
Dennis Wagenaar Tiaravanni Hermawan Marc J. C. van den Homberg Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts Heidi Kreibich Hans de Moel Laurens M. Bouwer 《Risk analysis》2021,41(1):37-55
Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer. 相似文献
2.
It is uncertain whether Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries are approaching a single mortality regime. Over the last three decades, LAC has experienced major public health interventions and the highest number of homicides in the world. However, these interventions and homicide rates are not evenly shared across countries. This study documents trends in life expectancy and lifespan variability for 20 LAC countries, 2000–14. By extending a previous method, we decompose differences in lifespan variability between LAC and a developed world benchmark into cause-specific effects. For both sexes, dispersion of amenable diseases through the age span makes the largest contribution to the gap between LAC and the benchmark. Additionally, for males, the concentration of homicides, accidents, and suicides in mid-life further impedes mortality convergence. Great disparity exists in the region: while some countries are rapidly approaching the developed regime, others remain far behind and suffer a clear disadvantage in population health. 相似文献
3.
Nuria Infante-Torres Milagros Molina-Alarcón Ana Rubio-Álvarez Julián Rodríguez-Almagro Antonio Hernández-Martínez 《Women and birth : journal of the Australian College of Midwives》2018,31(5):e318-e324
Aim
To assess the relationship between the duration of the second stage of labour and postpartum anaemia during vaginal birth.Methods
An observational, analytical retrospective cohort study was performed at the “Mancha-Centro Hospital” (Spain) during the 2013–2016 period. Data were collected from 3437 women who had a vaginal birth. Postpartum anaemia was defined as a haemoglobin level below 11 g/dL at 24 h postpartum. A univariate analysis was used for potential risk factors and a multivariate analysis with binary logistic regression to control for possible confounding factors.Findings
The incidence of postpartum anaemia was 42.0%. The risk of postpartum anaemia did not increase in nulliparous women whose duration of the second stage of labour exceeded 4 h. Compared with multiparous women who delivered between 0 and 3 h, multiparous women with a duration of the second stage of labour beyond 3 h were at higher risk of postpartum anaemia (OR = 2.43 [1.30–4.52]).Conclusion
The duration of the second stage of labour beyond 4 h is safe for postpartum anaemia in nulliparous women. However in multiparous women, monitoring should increase if the second stage of labour exceeds 3 h given the increased risk of postpartum anaemia. 相似文献4.
Mohammed-Albarra Hassan Imed Kacem Sébastien Martin Izzeldin M. Osman 《Journal of Combinatorial Optimization》2018,36(3):1074-1101
In this paper we study the m-clique free interval subgraphs. We investigate the facial structure of the polytope defined as the convex hull of the incidence vectors associated with these subgraphs. We also present some facet-defining inequalities to strengthen the associated linear relaxation. As an application, the generalized open-shop problem with disjunctive constraints (GOSDC) is considered. Indeed, by a projection on a set of variables, the m-clique free interval subgraphs represent the solution of an integer linear program solving the GOSDC presented in this paper. Moreover, we propose exact and heuristic separation algorithms, which are exploited into a Branch-and-cut algorithm for solving the GOSDC. Finally, we present and discuss some computational results. 相似文献
5.
6.
This article highlights three dimensions to understanding children's well‐being during and after parental imprisonment which have not been fully explored in current research. A consideration of ‘time’ reveals the importance of children's past experiences and their anticipated futures. A focus on ‘space’ highlights the impact of new or altered environmental dynamics. A study of ‘agency’ illuminates how children cope within structural, material and social confines which intensify vulnerability and dependency. This integrated perspective reveals important differences in individual children's experiences and commonalities in broader systemic and social constraints on prisoners’ children. The paper analyses data from a prospective longitudinal study of 35 prisoners’ children during and after their (step) father's imprisonment to illustrate the arguments. 相似文献
7.
Sociolinguistic research has demonstrated that gossip is a co‐constructed phenomenon, which allows participants to establish solidarity and build alignments with each other, while evaluating an absent party. Gossip can also serve important social functions, such as helping to establish and reconfirm group norms and values. The present study provides a detailed analysis of an extended gossip episode that occurred within an institutional context: a study group interaction at a U.S. university. Our analysis shows how, in gossip, constructed dialogue both prompts and legitimizes pejorative evaluations towards an absent third party, and is actually the pivot around which group members negotiate values and norms in the process of arriving at a shared moral stance. Our analysis also demonstrates that alignment in gossip interactions is tenuous and must be continuously renewed. 相似文献
8.
9.
Cancho Vicente G. Macera Márcia A. C. Suzuki Adriano K. Louzada Francisco Zavaleta Katherine E. C. 《Lifetime data analysis》2020,26(2):221-244
Lifetime Data Analysis - Frailty models are generally used to model heterogeneity between the individuals. The distribution of the frailty variable is often assumed to be continuous. However, there... 相似文献
10.
Mark A. van de Wiel Dennis E. Te Beest Magnus M. Münch 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》2019,46(1):2-25
Empirical Bayes is a versatile approach to “learn from a lot” in two ways: first, from a large number of variables and, second, from a potentially large amount of prior information, for example, stored in public repositories. We review applications of a variety of empirical Bayes methods to several well‐known model‐based prediction methods, including penalized regression, linear discriminant analysis, and Bayesian models with sparse or dense priors. We discuss “formal” empirical Bayes methods that maximize the marginal likelihood but also more informal approaches based on other data summaries. We contrast empirical Bayes to cross‐validation and full Bayes and discuss hybrid approaches. To study the relation between the quality of an empirical Bayes estimator and p, the number of variables, we consider a simple empirical Bayes estimator in a linear model setting. We argue that empirical Bayes is particularly useful when the prior contains multiple parameters, which model a priori information on variables termed “co‐data”. In particular, we present two novel examples that allow for co‐data: first, a Bayesian spike‐and‐slab setting that facilitates inclusion of multiple co‐data sources and types and, second, a hybrid empirical Bayes–full Bayes ridge regression approach for estimation of the posterior predictive interval. 相似文献