提升中小学生阅读兴趣的实证研究——基于MIMIC模型的教学效能分析

提升学生的阅读素养是当前我国阅读课程教学改革的重要目标之一。本研究首次尝试将群文阅读这种新兴的阅读教学方式与传统的单本阅读教学方式进行对比研究，主要从提升学生阅读兴趣的效能方面进行分析与探讨。实验涉及我国中西部5个省市、6个区县共计1 231名中小学生，并使用MIMIC模型，在有效控制测量误差的基础上，对实证数据进行了量化建模与分析，通过分析发现，群文阅读教学对激发学生阅读的“情境兴趣”有更加显著的作用，具体表现为对学生阅读注意力、情感体验、探索意愿、价值感知的影响更大，同时也验证了Knogler提出的“情境兴趣模型”在阅读教学领域的适用性，从而为进一步推进我国中小学阅读课程教学改革提供了科学的数据支撑。因此，为提升中小学生阅读素养，在阅读教学中引入群文阅读这一新兴的教学方式，具有重要的实践价值和现实意义。     

新中国70年外交理念的伦理形态演进及其发展趋势

外交理念是外交政策和外交活动的指导思想和价值内核。新中国70年外交理念的发展经历了冷战思维影响下的外交理念、和平与发展思维主导下的外交理念两个主要阶段。从伦理视角看，其中蕴含着一个复杂而有序的伦理形态演进过程，它总体上体现为斗争—合作伦理，并具体呈现为3种不同的伦理形态，即：以制度分歧和阶级正义为中心的斗争—合作伦理；以互利关系为中心的斗争—合作伦理；以大国责任为中心的斗争—合作伦理。随着中国特色社会主义进入新时代，我国外交理念伦理将会出现从国家安全伦理向国家发展伦理转变、从国家本位伦理向全球发展伦理转变的趋势。     

提升英语口语思辨能力的教学改革策略

针对21世纪对英语口语思辨表达能力的要求，分析了英语口语和思辨性表达的关系，回顾了提升英语口语思辨能力的理论文献，总结了在英语听说课程中实践话题性内容听力导入、小组活动、演讲范例分析和呈现、文学经典作品导入和呈现有效提升英语口语思辨表达能力的作用。     

以创新引领发展,打造上海世界级汽车产业集群

上海是全国汽车产业重镇,在产业规模、产业创新、产业融合方面处于全国领先,具备了打造世界级汽车产业集群的基础条件.与此同时,上海汽车产业也面临宏观环境的不确定性、竞争对手的挑战和新技术变革的机遇.上海应以创新引领发展,在研究开发、基础设施、产业生态、全球市场、人才和机制方面进行整体推进,打造世界级汽车产业集群.     

Efficient Inference for Longitudinal Data Varying‐coefficient Regression Models

Informative identification of the within‐subject correlation is essential in longitudinal studies in order to forecast the trajectory of each subject and improve the validity of inferences. In this paper, we fit this correlation structure by employing a time adaptive autoregressive error process. Such a process can automatically accommodate irregular and possibly subject‐specific observations. Based on the fitted correlation structure, we propose an efficient two‐stage estimator of the unknown coefficient functions by using a local polynomial approximation. This procedure does not involve within‐subject covariance matrices and hence circumvents the instability of calculating their inverses. The asymptotic normality of resulting estimators is established. Numerical experiments were conducted to check the finite sample performance of our method and an example of an application involving a set of medical data is also illustrated.     

The Multiscale Importance of Road Segments in a Network Disruption Scenario: A Risk‐Based Approach

This article addresses the problem of the multiscale importance of road networks, with the aim of helping to establish a more resilient network in the event of a road disruption scenario. A new model for identifying the most important roads is described and applied on a local and regional scale. The work presented here represents a step forward, since it focuses on the interaction between identifying the most important roads in a network that connect people and health services, the specificity of the natural hazards that threaten the normal functioning of the network, and an assessment of the consequences of three real‐world interruptions from a multiscale perspective. The case studies concern three different past events: road interruptions due to a flood, a forest fire, and a mass movement. On the basis of the results obtained, it is possible to establish the roads for which risk management should be a priority. The multiscale perspective shows that in a road interruption the regional system may have the capacity to reorganize itself, although the interruption may have consequences for local dynamics. Coordination between local and regional scales is therefore important. The model proposed here allows for the scaling of emergency response facilities and human and physical resources. It represents an innovative approach to defining priorities, not only in the prevention phase but also in terms of the response to natural disasters, such as awareness of the consequences of road disruption for the rescue services sent out to local communities.     

Life Satisfaction of Rural Migrant Workers in Urban China: The Roles of Community Service Participation and Identity Integration

Abstract

China is home to approximately 245 million rural-to-urban migrant workers. The influx of migrants into urban areas has posed various challenges for local social service systems. Recently, increasing number of community services have been developed to meet the growing service demands from the migrant population. However, whether increase in community service use results in improved wellbeing among migrant workers remains critically unexplored. As such, this study examines the role of community service use in migrant workers’ life satisfaction and the potential mediating effect of identity integration in Shenzhen, China. Bootstrapped models were adopted to examine relationship among variables. Drawing from a sample of 1,087 rural-to-urban migrant workers, we found that community service use is positively correlated with both identity integration and migrant workers’ life satisfaction. Moreover, identity integration served as a partial mediator between community service use and life satisfaction. The mediating effect of identity integration was found to increase with age. This study highlights that diverse services should be implemented to address divergent needs of migrants in different age groups. Community service can also serve as a vehicle to foster integration among migrant workers in host communities, especially for older age groups. Future studies may further investigate the relationships between community social capital, community social support, quality of community-based organization and frequency of service use so as to optimize the life satisfaction of migrant workers.     

大数据与政府治理能力提升:机遇、挑战与展望

随着社会问题复杂程度的不断增加,大数据应用为政府解决棘手问题、提升治理能力、应对挑战提供了新思路,但也带来了一定程度的适应难题。因此,探析大数据在我国的政府治理实践中如何得到合理应用、有效推动治理能力提升需要结合国内外成功经验,从机遇和挑战两个维度进行理解。分析发现,大数据可以推动政府治理协同化、政府决策科学化、数据管理规范化,并会遇到数据壁垒、专业能力欠缺以及政策法规滞后等方面的阻碍。研究意义在于分析大数据对政府治理能力提升的作用,为未来我国政府在治理实践中更好地利用大数据技术提供参考。     

养老保险制度差异对迁移行为的影响分析

基于苏州工业园区独特的养老保险制度形成的自然实验,构造迁移行为选择模型,解释养老保险制度差异影响迁移行为的过程。利用苏州工业园区2006-2011年迁移人员管理数据,整合计量经济学和基于生命周期理论的精算模型,研究发现养老保险制度设计应考虑其对迁移行为的影响,较大的养老保险制度差异造成较大的养老保险迁移成本,对迁移行为的发生具有较大的阻碍作用。男性、高学历以及年轻群体发生迁入行为的可能性更大,对个体有利的迁移行为提升了园区劳动力市场的有效性。     

启蒙与马克思主义中国化

新文化运动后期,因马克思主义的传入而使中国历史的命运发生了改变,从此马克思主义与启蒙便产生了复杂的关系。文章从思想史的角度出发,围绕中国启蒙思想的递嬗轨迹和特殊内涵,深入分析启蒙与马克思主义中国化互相影响的特殊过程,揭示不同的历史发展阶段启蒙与马克思主义的历史关系,重新审视启蒙与中国的特殊国情。在中国社会转型期的当下,凸显启蒙对中国现代化建设的重要现实意义。